Bubbler86

Some light rain and snow already into Somerset area. 39/24 here at 3PM.

Late phase and a mess of a forecast on this run. NC PA gets a lot of snow. It is 4 degrees at MDT...7PM Friday evening (23rd)

EC has an initially non PV phased and convoluted solution setting up for next week.

I think Paweather talked him down to $25 for the pair.

EC has most of PA showing precip invading in the early AM hours of Thur. the far NE is still dry at this time. Starting as rain and freezing rain for the most part. Very little mix or sleet at the onset. At 7AM much of PA has freezing rain. By mid day, much of that freezing ran has turned into snow in PA except a mix and rain in the LSV and SW Snow just now crawling into the NE corner of the state. Tomorrow evening there is heavy snow from near CTP down to about Perry county. LSV still mix or rain. Mix is now well up into the MSV. Surface temps are at or above freezing for almost all of PA at this point despite the snow. EC has mix and rain to the NY line by Friday AM as the low crossed the DelMarVa. I just have the 10:1 snow map which will be much too high but will show areas where it snowed.

@paweather, fingers crossed the EC has a Christmas White Miracle for us. Your PBP fingers feel lucky?

The good 'Ole LWRJW with short sleeve polo under type of day.

HRRR has you settling in at 38-40 then a low of 29 at midnight before temps start to rise. Above freezing at 9AM tomorrow and punching into the 40's overnight Thursday.

Nooners....Up to 35/27 with more sunshine getting through the milky clouds.

The CMC however. This is after some serious front end dump for the LSV.

12Z GFS was back to being a little more vigorous with the front passage on the 23rd...squalls, etc. But the orientation of the trough is great for a SLP forming on the front. It will change in 6 hours. :-). But no storm as of now except for New England.

Cloudy and 32 here.

I was typing that and went to reply to yours and did not finish the thought but that was in reference to the 6Z....but yes on the 6Z there is nothing the rest of the year. Everything supressed except one small coastal 12/29.

True just very rectangular in nature for that snow. Like it drew lines. That panel is why Canderson scores on the GFS.

This is not at all a suggestion of agreement but the GFS is more or less dry the rest of the year on the 6Z so hope for some adjustments there.

The thing that bothers me with this situation is its precip indications. Take this one for example. Lower resolution may be hurting its forecasting skill on this event.

GFS still the snowier of the models. Shows Canderson getting 4.7". LOL. The depiction is a bit of a mess and all over the place but it is what it is.

Rgem also pushes rain into NY with little to no snow for the LSV. Far north part gets an inch or so on Kuch. Serious sleet bomb for West Central PA. And crazy FRZ map though this often does not verify in reality. The area of little Frz between the Western Mountain range and Franklin county gets a lot of sleet.

The trend with all the 12Z's out so far, including the entire HRW suite I can see, is less sleet and more frz rain for us...and a short/small accum snow burst before switch to rain for the top of the LSV and lower MSV. Even the 3K has it. The 12K Nam is the only one without it so far. Most have all changing over to rain eventually...up to NY.

Fv3 still shows a snow burst for the Northern LSV...later in the sequence of the storm.

Here is the 850 map near the start of the precip. It is WAA so the precip is due to the warm push from the Southwest.

The 700-800 area is near 40 for me, on the Nam, when the precip starts tomorrow AM. It does crash some and change to sleet for a bit.

It is retrograding the system for areas north of PA (and far Northern PA) Friday.

Sounds like a safe, reasonable call. The big question for you would be any snow at the end from the coastal.

Yea, the Nam is now casting a bit with that. Here is the column over my area when the rain starts. I would argue that technically this should show as Freezing rain but still in the 30's at the surface. Temp 35-40 above.