Bubbler86

Did the Euro trade you to Canada?

In defense of the model, which we know will very likely not end up like this, the low is retrograding/phasing/tucking and also reforming to the North East at that point. If you go back a few panels you will see it sweeps up from off the coast of NC and is pulled by a low to its Northwest...classic. Those SE PA areas were never flooded with warm air on its "first pass" well to the east. But great ob and this is a interesting model breakdown of how it did that. The 850's from the panel posted are a thing of beauty as to a low pulling down cold air.

That entire track is a classic LSV/Leigh Valley Neisis level event.

Most people here are quite nice. In addition to paying for beer you also have to let us know how often you mow your grass and what you keep your house temp at in the winter. Those are a big deal here. :-).

Currently 33 and Sunny for Nooners Model Perusing. Winter is here.

That is my mountain. Pen Mar Park scores. High Rock is white rock. Posting snow maps for the fun but 12Z has been a slight improvement for many here...I still would never bet money on the mid-levels holding in any kind of situation like this so keeping expectations low.

GFS snow map on pivotal is....unique. But general sense here is that it continues to promote a wintery sceanrio. Does trainer get 5" or the hole of pain? Just north of DC gets plowable?

FV3 is much more modest with any collapsing column snows for the LSV. Here is the best panel but it only lasts 2-3 hours as the SLP gets too far north and pushes the line back north again. 1-3" in Northern LSV. 4-6" Northern MSV. Most of the LSV sees little snow.

I added to my post suggesting that map may be a bit misleading after looking over the column for the entire event. Doubt it would play out like that.

RGEM went with a colder column on 12Z. This may be a bit misleading as the panels flash between mix and snow so super close...and the SLP is WAY up in Havre De Grace.

12z 3K Nam has about 6-7 hours where the column supports some type of frozen (including the surface) for the LSV. Temps between 700 and 800 are in the mid 30's (or even a tad higher) for most of the event so it shows little to no snow.

Yuu did not post this, I did....but MU says you may not get your first snow this week.

You almost have to if you work anywhere, they keep the temp in the 70's.

I concur that this snow map is a realistic depiction of where the significant snows could happen based on AM modeling. Icing is so hard to predict so not going to venture there yet but I suspect in my hood, this is mostly a sleet to rain event.

We have had this discussion in years past. I forget the final verdict but it was at least 4".

Hmmmmm. What now. LOL. Euphemism?

A chilly 22 this AM. @canderson, the meso's I just looked at have your whole trip just rain by 1-2PM Thurs....if that is time enough to go. Nam 3K has you rain in the AM.

The blocking is why the system is "stopping" in the midwest and reforming south of us. The reason we are not getting a MAJOR snowstorm despite a system going south of us is the lack of cold air around right now. No room for error. So, in short, the blocking is "working" but the air is moderate at best.

All I want for Christmas...is a storm where we can actually use the TT snow maps. TT is the smoother of the two between it and Pivotal...but the majority of the storms we have faced recently are not clean and the TT maps are worthless. So, this forces having to go to Pivotal and deal with the clunkier interface to get more accurate maps.

Decent period of ice but 2M temps above 30 for the LSV. Could be underdoing CAD for the main LSV.

That would suck for Christmas travel. (Ice)

I am still "suspicious" of a lot of snow for the LSV. Any kind of SW flow affecting the thermals worries me above.

This Kuch snow map backs the razor thin thought process. Long duration event. Thur AM into Friday afternoon.

Looks like the GFS depiction is sleet to start then over to snow/sleet mix as the layers cool a bit and precip comes down hard. Sounding say sleet/snow mix for that period. But a bump in the right direction for sure. Basically, saying mixed precip for quite a while.