Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Pop up headed toward MJS and ITT at the moment. No guarantees, just a PBP post of facts at that moment. LOL
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The 3K does build a loosely defined line for the LSV evening hours...then smokes the Lehigh Valley again. Could be some crazy 4-8" totals up there if that comes to pass. 3K is better than the HRRR which MJS referenced. (Now with corrected @Mount Joy Snowmanspelling.) Heads up Paw Paw.
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It is also a consecutive BN month along with May, which is something of note. Can we get 3 with July?
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Maybe some of that water will flow down to us. ;-)
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The Cumberland, MD line is growing, hopefully it can extend south a bit and get the southern LSV counties into play later.
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I thought you were going to say the day you benched 450.
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South of Lebanon line is as well....much of this time it has had a very weak duplicate area following it down in MD. Some activity now out near Cumberland MD.
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I had a spotter over 2.5" just East of M-Burg (Not far from naval center, hence my comment earlier).
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Naval base should be in the 2-4" range now.
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Rt 81 north of the 78 split has to be a nightmare to be on right now. It is rain+ for many miles.
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It certainly was not modeled well so good thought. HRRR now has a broken band for the restofus for the evening, similar to the 3K in some manner.
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The two are joining now.
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Larger cell fired up NW of E-Town.
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How mother nature sees Harrisburg
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Other boards yelling bust, HRRR showing no rain, not near enough to stop the Harrisburg/near West Shore rain train.
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Another Harrisburg rain appears imminent albeit it not exactly a large cell.
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Ditto on both here...and the sun is being filtered more by the high clouds. Not sure we make 90 if the cloud deck stays present.
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Also, the broken line (it congeals for Lanco and East) now being shown on the 3K does not come through until mid-evening. At 6Z it keyed on energy earlier in the day but has backed it out to what it was showing yesterday. So, that is 6-7 hours away and cannot call bust on that one yet :-)
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I am not throwing in the hat vs. mentioning why people are yelling bust. All model talk.
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That is a good thought but even non convection rain events surprise more than snow. But yea, we are terrible at anything convection related (not so great at wind forecasting either.)
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Losing the HRRR hurts and the other meso's back tracked.
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Something that is a common occurrence with rain...but snow not so much. I think of Jan 25, 2000 but much rarer we get an area wide snowstorm that is not forecasted.
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Yea, the severe nuts can keep that. Give me a soaking downpour for 15 min and I count that as a big win.
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Funny how close we are this month....both monthly and "wet period". We had to resume watering this AM.
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Sounds like a lot of people who move to Florida.
