Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Another Harrisburg rain appears imminent albeit it not exactly a large cell.
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Ditto on both here...and the sun is being filtered more by the high clouds. Not sure we make 90 if the cloud deck stays present.
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Also, the broken line (it congeals for Lanco and East) now being shown on the 3K does not come through until mid-evening. At 6Z it keyed on energy earlier in the day but has backed it out to what it was showing yesterday. So, that is 6-7 hours away and cannot call bust on that one yet :-)
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I am not throwing in the hat vs. mentioning why people are yelling bust. All model talk.
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That is a good thought but even non convection rain events surprise more than snow. But yea, we are terrible at anything convection related (not so great at wind forecasting either.)
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Losing the HRRR hurts and the other meso's back tracked.
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Something that is a common occurrence with rain...but snow not so much. I think of Jan 25, 2000 but much rarer we get an area wide snowstorm that is not forecasted.
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Yea, the severe nuts can keep that. Give me a soaking downpour for 15 min and I count that as a big win.
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Funny how close we are this month....both monthly and "wet period". We had to resume watering this AM.
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Sounds like a lot of people who move to Florida.
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The HRRR was never on the same page convection wise as the 3K was, this was just a farther step down/backwards. The 3K lost the squall line look and is more scattered now.
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Not going to take it literally but the 12Z HRRR is a nothing sandwich for most of the LSV.
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MDT stands at very close to normal with a 3.43 right now but that is mostly due to a big day on June 12th when many here did not get to "participate" so I bet a lot of posters are way below normal for June right now. MDT Norm is 3.33 as of today. I am well below that. My closest NWS @ HGR is 2.02" for the month right now. I have myself around 2.5".
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It is fairly sunny here now...just very high clouds. Still waiting for my first 90 degree day of the year. Have a shot today of it clears out.
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Satellite shows some clearing punching up over my area but not much over most of PA right now.
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The Cowboys are red hot.
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Wamer here now at 70 than any point last Wed when it stayed in the 50's and 60's. Has not rained here since Fri AM so hoping for the wet today.
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6Z Moved up the timing a few hours.
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That panel is 5PM
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Models are showing that chance right now. 3K is a monster.
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Right now, its humid. But models screwed up this weekend for many so let's play it out. We had about 80% full Sun Fri, Sat and Sunday.
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GFS nice going into the weekend, CMC warmer, but both more humid Sat and Sun and wet on Sun for GFS and Sat for CMC. 80's both days. GFS starts a fairly length heat wave on Tue.
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The 3K bring the hammer for all of us tomorrow. So, still hoping....after Tue things quiet down for several days. I am almost assured of hitting the halfway point of summer at 10 or less now. Seems unlikely I hit 20 this year. Saw one neighbor mow today...first mowing I saw in 2 weeks.
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I would be happy with a 1/4" of sweet rain. Stuck on mow 8 and no signs of going to 9.
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Yep, what was supposed to be a wet pattern has really failed so far....more so for some vs others. By failed I mean a wet pattern would at least be quite a bit above normal for a period. At least 1.75 or 2" over a 7-day period for June. Not many got that. Ground is dry here again and today has been the second hottest day of the summer over here. .6 in the last 7 days.
