Bubbler86

On the op GFS, that 3-5 days before Christmas period was really the only period between now and Christmas that I could see much of any chance for temps to be cold enough for any winter weather. Fully agree, there is no true arctic air in the near or mid future as modeled. The rest of Dec is a beggars can't be choosers/thread the needle hope. Also agree the system a few days before is a no go from the start for most of PA.

No blow torches but probably some AN days and some BN normal days which would all equate to normal indeed if it came to fruition. Cannot put too much weight in a 200+ hour OP map but it at least lends itself to keeping the blinds clean.

Both the GFS and CMC Op's have enough cold air 4-6 days before Christmas to at least avoid shitting the blinds for now. They get there different ways though so not much confidence. GFS has a 50/50 Low (or close to it) which would usher in a cold rush.

@Blizzard of 93, here is one for you to file in your template folder for future posts.... just change acronyms to CXY and MDT and city/area names to Harrisburg and West Shore and you are ready to go! :-)

No room for it to develop but at least the cold is in place.

A not-so-great December should not be a judge for the whole winter so surprised if he is panicking at all. In recent years we have had quite a few instances of great patterns never making it past day 10 so I do totally understand the penchant for some to assume a negative stance until the snow is falling (after the last several years) but even if Dec does end up veering toward AN/no snow, we have 2/3 of winter left to go. Canderson not here so not much talk about it but keep seeing warnings about high winds today. The HRRR is not showing anything to the level of the stuff I read.

He must have been viewing the MA LR discussion yesterday.

Snowing again right now....streamer made it all the way down here.

One of the met's in the MA thread estimated the snow was 3:1. If so, the Kuch maps were too high.

That was a hail mary that did not work out. ha. Not cancelling anything. Seriously, the lack of cold air is a real hinderance to having any chance of identifying threats very far out. The GFS has a low take a great track in 7 days and it is rain everywhere except far North New England. Track will be different in a few hours but not sure there will be any more cold air to work with. No obvious frying pan periods either...just a bit AN.

Ha, we literally posted at the same time.

@Chris78 how much did you get? About 2.5" more just up from us. Elevation ...Washington County... Sabillasville 2 NNW 3.5 629 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS

That is a very cool pic, thanks!

So long, farewell, auf Wiedersehen, adieuAdieu, adieu, to yieu and yieu and yieu One thing I am seeing in reports is that the models showing a bonus area in N Central MD got their wish. PSU got 4" and saw another report of over 3".

34 and nice paste coasting here. About 1" on some hard wood surfaces. A bit higher in grass but not going to count that. No street accums.

34 and mixed precip.

Saw mention on the MA thread and can confirm that the web cams at Ski Liberty (Fairfield) are showing snow at the base of the main slope. Still a lot of rain mixed in here.

This line is well past me now so maybe can surmise it was seeing snow or sleet above but still not cold enough just above the surface for a full change. SPC Meso 850 line is very close to me but 925 is not.

Down to 36 now. I just looked again and it is still mostly rain.

815ish. It is still mostly rain but I have a snow light so can see larger flakes going by. Very much based on intensity I am sure.

Some mangled flakes mixing in here now. 38 degrees.

The isobars have really elongated to our east with two areas of frontogenesis now...one where we saw it before off the NC coast and one slightly below this circle and dry slot so the slp is probably in this general area.

It did close. Thinking about it, maybe that was before you moved up here so that makes more sense. I bought some stuff from their auction. Not a fan of their location though as to pass by traffic. So many coming east turn at the circle in New Oxford and skip cross keys.

I thought you were going to saw you are retired and do not want to spend the cash on the premium site! Ps, never been to cross keys diner? How? Lol