Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Heads up Dubois!
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0z cmc lining up a potential money shot at the end but temps would again be an issue.
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The same reason people play slot machines with so little chance to win? Your point should definitely ring to anyone who states things in a closed ended fashion as to the weather.
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A similar drum to what I was beating before but until we can reconcile this area circled above, modeled or possible reality, it is going to literally be tough sledding here. Above freezing in Wisconsin at 7AM on January 6th. 34 in Northern Wisconsin and 47 in Central Florida. The Op has been gyrating around with the amount of cold air to our north, similar bad run yesterday at HH though not this bad. Need temps at least in the single digits and teens in that circle at 7AM ala today's Canadian.
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Hopefully but that is not what MU said as to how I read it. But I think our best chances are Jan 6-10ish and onward as well. MU: IF a -NAO (Greenland/North Atlantic blocking) regime does persist from mid-January through the end of February or early March, look out! The chances of a big, mid-Atlantic snowstorm or two would increase dramatically! Snow-lovers, your time may finally be drawing near..
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I think some of the met's there are weenies at heart and at times derail their thread with overly optimistic views based on the very same models discussed here. But there has been a lot of crap in here as well. At least most here are not grating types.
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For Mid Jan on.
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Randy locked it, unpinned it and started a new one.
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This thread is Harvard Law compared to the Dec MA LR thread which was just closed down.
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Going to end up with under 1/4" of rain from this event....MDT not doing much better.
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Eh, I was more saying that this AM's GFS had it on schedule for the talk of the last few days which was the second week of Jan. The talk about it getting cold right after Christmas left the building over a week ago.
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I just found Mad Elf on tap at a movie theatre. A nice find. The fact that we are talking beer also clues in on the latest GFS Op and MA LR thread as to where that topic stands right now.
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High of 50 here so far today with only .15" since midnight. A lot of drizzle.
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Sure, but if Ruin wants something a lot colder than 42 then that was not being shown until later in January. But agree that normal is not shabby and chances of snow. Verbatim on the 6Z, the highs do not stay in the 30's at MDT any day until January 6th which pretty much matches what many have been talking about. There has not been much support recently for BN level cold the first few days of Jan.
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Those temps he posted are not far from the normal as to highs for Sun and Mon (normal is 40). If his angle was snow, he needs below normal whether one calls it cold or not. Normal high on Jan 15th is 38.
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Not much GFS support for BN temps until the second week of Jan now.
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I think the big worry from above is that we have not had a lot of OP runs showing extensive cold regardless of prospective patterns....a few have but on random runs that popped in and out. We need to start seeing it consistently.
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I think the only people cancelling January are in the MA thread and not many at that. But the OP GFS was not good regardless.
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It was not below freezing before the event and there is no below freezing temps anywhere near the area except way above the ground, so it is not a good setup outside rate induced cooling which is not optimal.
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Not a good GFS run....after some snow TV on Jan 7th we are left with this. A stark contract to some runs last week which showed real cold invading the US by the time of this map.
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He is a "bit of a pessimist" though. LOL.
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Still not much in the way of modeled cold air to our north (in early Jan) has caused the lunch menu to be an extra-large melt. IMO, still way too early to count out anything after the first few days of the month.
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Just a little bit in my lower area of the mountain. Hard to see up very far though as more low clouds and fog higher. I see they extended the fog adv to parts of the LSV.
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Rgem and Nam 3K ramping up totals a bit for tomorrow....over 2" in many central and Eastern PA areas now. HRRR still nowhere near that and Nam12 focused the heavier rains in N Central PA with 1-2" still in Central and Southeastern PA.
