Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Icon has mod-heavy snow for about half of far Southern PA at 1PM on Sat. This includes the Pitt crew.
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True except it is above freezing in the SE corner of the LSV at the surface. Would it actually be above freezing with heavy snow falling? I vote no but that is what the output shows.
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You and I are already approaching 10" Kuch at 7PM Saturday. The other great thing about this evolution is less front end mixing concerns for PA or far N MD. Might get some snow TV as the surface is warm but the column seems better.
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I think the Rgem would eventually be 1-2 feet in Southern PA
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It is a winner...crowd pleaser plus. Well, Southern half of PA crowd and the MA.
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It backed up the CMC , IMO
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If the Nam shows 1-2 feet, this place would be posting maps at a rapid pace. Rgem is rolling and it always comes in fast on pivotal.
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It definitely changed a bit so assuming it is going to trend more toward the other suites.
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Nam has a Dual barreled situation with one low in the TN Valley and one off the SE Coast at 1PM Sat. No Precip near PA at this point. At 7PM the coastal takes over and a light mix of rain/snow/frz/sleet in far South PA. Not impressive.
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If it shows the OTS solution again, I am ignoring it for now. Love me some Nam but that is a drastic departure from the others.
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That has been debated here. Some say 2". I first heard that term on ABC 27 or Wgal and they were suggesting 4 or more inches. Models are inconsistent but really what make this board live...if they were rarely wrong, there would not be nearly as much discussion.
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But the 6Z Euro is warm. At hour 90, some of the LSV is mixed. Nothing like the GFS which is my point of the gyrations with the models.
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It is uncanny how up and down the tracking has been on this one. It seems every 12 hours we have one suite threatening a little snow/a sunny day on Saturday and another driving a low too far north. Goes to show how hard trying to put a forecast out is...the interactions are too complicated to pin down.
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I saw a map in the MA that showed rain in the LSV at hour 90. But one thing we can ascertain...the Euro and GFS are quite a bit apart.
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That is sleet and freezing rain over a large area of Adams and Franklin. No bueno.
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I do not have the 6Z but with the max out in the elevations, that looks more like temp issues.
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SS? Carpet installers? That is a pretty high total forecast.
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Icon and CMC staying relatively consistent. Have to like that. GFS all over the place with the strength and low placement each run. Saw the rgem mentioned but not the Nam. Just looked at the Nam and I see why. Looks like the 6Z Euro really came in low as well. Chaos.
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Is the Old going to be this severe? Low of 29 in Rou.
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Nam has the Low in N. Florida at the end of its 0z run. In step with other suites that have a low sweeping to the SE coast.
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With the move up in starting time, AM Sat for some here, the Meso's are really coming into play earlier than thought.
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Like you said, same result.
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The 18gfs was great news for the Southern pa counties. So were most of the GEFS members.
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In a matter of 6 hours the GEFS has gone from showing a good 1/3 of its members with an OH/TN Valley Low to just 3-4.
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You guys are in the game as much as we are at this point. Both the CMC and EC showed what you need which is the primary getting into the TN or OH Valley, so you have moisture around. If the Primary does a scoot out to our South, Western PA will not be happy.
