Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Grabbed this from the MA thread...0Z EPS members locations of SLP at 7PM Saturday. About 2/3 agree with the Op in this not making an Ohio Valley Run and block/transfer.
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The Nam and CMC both advertising an LSV coating-1" Thur AM as the "Jan 4th" low passes well to our south but interacts with some energy and forcing over S PA. Temps are near freezing. The EC has switched camps and joined the Icon with the Jan 7th system being a Miller A now as well. Slides the low off the Northern NC Coast instead of climbing to near Ohio. Happy New Year everyone.
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Light rain and 40 here. Temp has jumped 3 degrees in the last 60 min.
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Maybe the GEFS is on to something. LOL
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This is an ensemble mean and not an individual model forecast so one of these could be influenced by member(s) who are drastically different than others, but the High over Easten Canada is weaker at 12Z Sat on the GEFS than it is on the GFS while the "50/50 Low" is also weaker, to the tune of 30Mb, on the GEFS. Would certainly make for a drastically different result. The low is 968 on the GFS and 990 on the GEFS. There is a cluster of lows around the top but speaking about the farther south displaced one.
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Tip of the cap to the Icon.
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That strip in there (18.5 on Kuch) looks like South Mountain and the Micheaux Forest. I doubt I jackpot with a dying low to the West as to this specific run.
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Up 4Mb from previous frame.
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It actually does not get as far North as earlier today. KY before it loses much of its influence on our column.
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10-1 is 14-20" through S Central PA. Kuch close to 10-14".
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Sunday Tuck.
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Mid-morning Sunday, primary is off the Delmarva and snow is still cranking in PA.
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I think S Central PA is going to make a run for 2ft on the 10-1 snow maps.
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New Low reflection becomes primary in South VA Sunday AM as heavy snow is raking about 2/3 of PA.
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Sat evening, light snow is breaking out across S Pa as a 990 Low sits on the Tn/Al border.
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Sat 7AM the low is about the same Mb as 12Z but is delayed a bit sitting on the Tx/La border instead of further East which will lead to a faster rise toward the Ohio Valley. It made it to the Gulf at 12Z but will not on this run.
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Typo, all fixed up now. I was talking Mb.
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18Z GFS, Jan 4th is fairly similar to 12Z as both streams stay separate with some very light snow over the scattered areas of PA while the southern wave scoots off the Carolina coast...with hopes that it helps set us up for success in 3 days. The LP deepens quite well once heading toward the Northern Atlantic as it drops into the upper 960's Thursday night.
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18Z Icon not buying into a strong reflection into the Ohio Valley as of yet for the 7th chance.
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I could not believe they lost. Sorry man. Cowboys deserved to lose with their play calling. Both teams backing into the playoffs.
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I think those ratings mostly use frontal placement vs. ground truth weather (like you suggested.) The Ukie has not been good when I have tried to incorporate it into forecasts.
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If right, he just invalidated most of the current posts on the MA LR thread. He is like the anti-Brooklyn. Lol
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NA View showing the 1/4 System as of 1/7 (off the coast of NE Canada.) Slight bump north from 954 at 6Z to its position as a 957 at 12Z. The SLP over the MA bumped itself north in a similar fashion because the blocking allowed it that little extra free space plus it allowed it to maintain a better reflection into the Ohio Valley.
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Goodie, I cannot wait until the first reply to a Nam PBP telling me it is not in range. But totally agree that nothing is over good or bad, just a model PBP. What is not great is if one believes in trends but wayyyy too early to worry about something that will probably change depending on what the 1/4 system ultimately does in creating a 50/50.
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GFS a forum splitter this run. Not great trend wise for the LSV but way too early to assume the prog can ascertain how strong any prospective 50/50 low or ridge building in would be.
