Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Agreed. We have invested ungodly amounts of time shoveling potential and patterns the last few years. You would think that at some point the general theme would be to say, "That pattern has potential, let's play it out" vs. "Jan will be rockin!" Models (ensembles or op's) are flawed 3 days out....how can we count on something 3x that?
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On the subject of the high, it is progged to be in a fairly similar location and a few MB's difference in strength on the Dec 31 6Z GFS as today's 6Z GFS at 7PM Sunday. The major difference is the SLP is hundreds of miles farther East and weaker than it was on the Dec 31 panel and there is a more robust Northern Stream kicker behind it now. The 50/50 low is also positioned better on the Dec 31 panel.
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This panel is sobering...
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An expectations issue...we started high.
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Saw this on the MA so passing on. I do not spend the $$$ to get it. Does not include out farther North or West members unfortunately.
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Really minimizes blowing as depicted above.
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Taking the snowiest model I noticed this AM....2M temps during the height of the snow.
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It is always good news on WB snow maps.
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Yea, that has been a constant thorn with the Nam runs the last few cycles.
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I still do not buy the precip shield...thermals, maybe.
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Some eventual rain for the LSV as well.
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Well, then it reverts back to its small precip shield from before. Called that one too soon, not a naming.
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A right proper Naming coming for Southern PA.
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HUGE changes at 63 and 66. Primary jumping into the TN Valley and then was blocked or transferred East.
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Primary SLP noticeably north at 60 with a warmer presentation of the precip shield to the north.
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Lots of vorts flying around on the Nam at 54. 3 pieces of energy.
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The Nam anticipation is thick in here.
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On the subject of DP's and the surface, they rise really fast on the GFS. So, all the cooling is over in my locale by 1PM on Sat. A tad later on the CMC and Euro. So, they help at first but of course when it is saturated, we are going to need help from those rates pulling down some of that sweet, sweet upper 20's and low 30's 850/925 temps (non Euro) to keep us cool....almost like a nuclear reactor.
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Someday, in a faraway galaxy, he is going to forecast something lower than any other met.
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Case in point, the snowy CMC. That red line long way from us so the CMC is counting on temps to decrease from precip rates and pulling down small bit of colder air as well as the time of the day. So, while I think it would surprise me if the Euro pulls the coup, we have absolutely no room for anything to go wrong.
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Yea, I updated my post and was comparing the CMC and the Euro. One thing (that has been stated dozens and dozens of times both here and MA) is that we have no room for any extra intrusion, so you point is more than valid. It is simply not going to be that cold and there is nothing to our north to change that.
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I was thinking it was more about the pressure and location of the SLP having more of a warm conveyer belt brought it. Although if you compare the CMC and Euro it truly is not.
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What I do not get is a good many of those posters are from the days where it was one big forum from Maine to NC.
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I truly do not think the Euro is right with all the other suites showing something different (not counting the NAM for now.) Are we going to get a Canadian slam jam? Not counting on that either.
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Yea, not saying anything regressed it just continues to overamp regardless of what it's ensembles may have shown. I do not trust the euro and would never base a forecast on it.
