Bubbler86

The whole thing is fun but worrisome at the same time. Not one of those situations that we will know Sat or Sun or maybe even Monday. Especially if this is any type of transfer situation vs. a sweeping low from the south....both scenarios on the table.

Low of 30 here this AM. Have only been below freezing a few days this month...about to change big time. For now: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 414 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-130200- /O.NEW.KCTP.WI.Y.0003.240113T1200Z-240114T0200Z/ Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Renovo, Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 414 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...West-Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts between 45 and 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty Southeasterly winds later this afternoon and early tonight will peak between 40 and 45 mph. A 6 to 8 hour lull in the wind will occur late tonight before the stronger gusts develop during the late morning and afternoon hours on Saturday.

This whole potential is predicated on something that happens 24-48 hours after this map. Fingers crossed.

P15 v P12

I think it has a better chance of working than hoping the first vort does not escape and have it climb the coast while being energized by the second. Out as far west as me, this is super questionable as to it working but more for the LSV. This type of event, as depicted, is a weather ob's geek's dream as you will indeed be watching for the second low to start forming. Without that second piece of energy, this is nothing, IMO.

The Icon seems to be a hybrid of what you and I were talking about yesterday. First Vort sweeps out to sea but second piece of energy develops in the Northern DelMarVa. More traditional than the low creeping up the coast scenario. Lanco our safest place to be with these depictions.

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm Rap HRRR Exr The regular gang!

His posts are so high level, they are indiscernible now. LOL. No one can argue with him...well maybe Chuck.

Not you, some other posters in the past. Thanking you for being civil. Some jump to insulting quickly. One of the MA posters once told me "You don't even know what a bubbler is". So many internet tough guys.

Yea, just less complicated is what I am referring to. If this were a low sweeping in from the south, it is much easier to conceive. Thanks for not mocking my screen name or insulting me because we had a different view on something.

Here is the GFS before anything is going on for the East Coast out Florida and beaches. That vort stalls there for 5-10 hours then climbs the coast. It is tugged by other energy but that is my point. Not a gulf low that is raging out of the SE. Just how I see it...the models that do not show snow allow that vort to escape.

The thing with the GFS that will bother me until it happens, if it happened that way, is that it is totally reliant upon a stall and climb. Almost ala Jan 2000 as to its track once offshore. Doable but I would not bet my life savings on it even 6 hours out. It is similar to betting on a Miller B.

His post was professional and on target.

I am not buying the GFS until Mitch shows me an ETAx that looks better.

In all seriousness, because it seems to happen to like 1 out of 4 people, follow the steps to clean it out because infection sucks. It seems to be getting better then all of sudden, life goes downhill fast. Dry Socket has nothing to do with changing tires.

12-18" for much of Lanco. 10.36" for Eastern Hanover.

Almost a Stall/tuck.

A Lanco Lancer

Precip blowing up way south of us....not trying to escape at all.

The next time I am in the market for a job, you are going to be my front man to juice up the interviewers. "Bubbler86 may not like coming in on Monday's but man this past Monday was his best in weeks."

I did not feel like typing 2-4.5" inches but yes, I assumed I would hear this after I posted. LOL

2-4" for you and I plus anything after that map though did not look like much more (Kuch)

It backed down for its escape...but not great out here.

You took that better than I thought. I was ready for a lesson in how to use the Nam and a mock for bringing up the Icon. if the Icon show snow, it sure does get posted a lot though! (Not necessarily you, the board as a whole).