Bubbler86

Assuming that means they are going to be upgrading the control -OR- running all ensembles at a higher res? I read the EC team is hosting some of the events at the currently running AMS conference.

Did a Ladybug land on your shoe today?

You might need to take a trip to see Brooklyn of 93.

Could definitely make its own cold air from above and really that small batch of 850's under 0 over us sort of depicts that.... just kind of crazy to be thinking snow with 850's failed into Canada.

If this panel does not scream snow, I am not sure what else we could hope for (snark). When the high itself has lots 850's, that is worrisome. LOL.

Sounds like the makings of the excuse for a Florida road trip for you. You can get into the eye and give us live pressure readings to make sure there is no missing data.

I was looking for a way to get another Met's name in there. LOL. But as progged it is a dead deal on the GFS and CMC unless it comes at us from the East in some manner.

If it does come North from an inland SE US location, where will the cold air come from? It is technically cold enough on those panels and there is some CAD, but any sort of southerly component with a storm approaching from the SW would ruin the column anyway. We would need it to maintain distinct different areas of lowest pressure and get off to our SE before a Fujiwhara effect (thanks Sakuhei Fuhiwhara) to bring it back toward us off the ocean, so we do not lose temps. (Edit, and we need that high to not depart as quickly)

Lot of theatrics with transferring lows with the Feb 5th event on the 12Z GFS but still missing one major performer even if it comes farther north....real cold air.

I found it interesting that someone posted on the NWS official site looking for reasons why El Nino was not "working."

Effects of MJO on Afghanistan PERMALINK Thanks for a fascinating read. I'm working on agricultural development in Afghanistan. A wet winter had been predicted - putting an end to a long drought usually blamed on La Niña - but so far there has been no precipitation at all. Could that be related to the MJO effect? Unfortunately your maps don't cover Afghanistan. REPLY SUBMITTED BY KLUIJVER, ROBERT ON MON, 01/15/2024 - 09:06 I think it's challenging to… PERMALINK I think it's challenging to say whether a seasonal forecast is a "bust" or a "failure" in mid-January. Also keep in mind these outlooks are probabilistic, so they will not happen 100% of the time. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-2024-el-nino-update-birds#:~:text=El Niño is very likely,for the next few months.

I think just one decent snow event is better than last winter down here. Temp wise though as to seasonal average departure, it has been warmer at MDT this winter. Last year through the end of Jan, MDT was running at a departure of the 3.85 AN vs the current departure of 4.6 AN

I personally did not see a lot of conceding but if one takes the LR Ensembles to heart, 2 of the 3 show very little in the way of "winter cold" for our area over the next 2-3 weeks.

I am not, my comments were more about the struggles of trying to do LR forecasting. A lot of LR forecasts I saw, here and other areas, really focused on late Jan and all of Feb for the hounds of winter.

I guess I was more basing my comments on the more enthusiastic forecasts seen by some of the people that like to do LR. There often seems to be one factor that was not accounted for, and it turns into a learning experience. Much the same as the yearly Tropical Storm forecasts IMO.

As mentioned yesterday, I do not like to dabble into the indices forecasting too much but will say again that I think people who forecast LR have a LONG way to go before it is even close to being a science per se. Because I cannot/do not do it, I am not casting stones, but it seems that each time too much emphasis is placed on one indicator or another and we often come out with posts like yours showing where it went wrong (in this case wrong to this point.)

Happy Valentines Day! The drought is over for the short term. If we have our typical overly dry 4-5 month period later this year I suspect, we go back in to D1 but all clear for now.

Since we are looking into grades and what not, 3 days to go until we are 2/3 of the way through met winter and with Jan bordering on being 4AN we stand at an average of 4.6 AN for both months of winter so far. Pretty ugly.

I am still shoveling the digital snow that the ops and ensembles have dropped on Rou.

<Lionchoking.gif>

At least you could have done 5 min worth of Photoshop to type bubbler on it.

The probably failed Bubbler snow...licking my wounds on that one.

I was not saying punting was right or not or who was saying it a certain way, just that anyone that says things with little room for options sets up failure if using 300 hour models to make the definitive statement. I mostly stay out of the LR game as I do not enjoy that part of it. When I post LR maps it is more about fun than real forecasting. I was actually saying your opinion is as valid as anyone else's and that includes the holy grail of LR forecasting in the MA. Lots of people there who are great at discussing patterns but IMO the end results on the ground are not often progged well.

Well, I have said this before but will say it again, to me a 300+ hour ensemble 500H map is not much (if any at all) more or less likely to be right than an op 500H map except that there will be less severe gyrations between runs. I say this only to point out that said forecasters could be right or punting could be right but if said as an opinion vs. a definitive statement, it comes across better. To this specific point, you have evidence that models are forecasting a better pattern so let's hope...

Time for an ego blower?