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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    Better for @CAPE
  2. frd
    If correct about the RAOB data and the Euro doing better out West then maybe the GFS will be somewhat incorrect with its 12z run evolution. Heard it from a met.
  3. frd
    Believe the Euro has been over amping all systems so far this winter. But yes, good points.
  4. frd
    So bascially I am hearing the Euro has already caved to the handling of the feature out in the Four corners. I think I will only use the GFS Op from now on.
  5. frd
    If the Euro caves fully to the GFS can you seriously even consider it useful any longer for East Coast Snowstorms? Four days before the event you had the EPS, Euro Op and Control with decent to very robust snowfall projections for our area. I know it has been pointed out that the GFS Op has had a significant upgrade, but for the GFS to match or possibly exceed in this case the forecast abilities of the Euro ensembles/OP. etc so relatively close to game time is to me stunning.
  6. frd
    Well in hindsight, ( caveat..... so far ) HM's tweet might end up being correct, in stating that his expectations were zero for this area with this type of storm. Actually, he was referring to Philly so that makes the statement even more depressing for areas South and West. But maybe we can be saved by Jack Sillin.
  7. frd
    Extensive area of snowfall along the East Coast at hour 72. Impressive !
  8. frd
    Pretty crazy. Liking what I am seeing .
  9. frd
    Looks better so far at hour 39.
  10. frd
    Exactly, seasonal trends so far, combined with climo, Nina, etc., all seem to converge on a less impactful event away from the coast. Of course, there can still be positive changes, but those seem to be fading for areas to the West. But, even some snow combined with high winds and cold temps will make for a nice winter landscape. @CAPE seems to be in a good location and I have faith in @MillvilleWx latest thoughts that here in Delaware we can still get a decent event. Outside the models is the luck factor which is still in play for some. On to the NAM
  11. frd
    Yes, in Middletown, DE, so hopefully I have better odds, we will see. Hopefully we all score across the board with an over running event in early February. Do you have a favored time frame for early Feb? Last I checked was near Feb 6 th or 7 th. But, that was days ago.
  12. frd
    These events, as you know, are much more realistic in terms of happening for our region , as well as easier to forecast versus what is on the table ( or off the table ) for this Friday and Saturday.
  13. frd
    Holy crap !!!!!!
  14. frd
    Source region should be frigid, while we may experience another PV displacement or elongation into Central Canada. Crazy look at hour 384.
  15. frd
    In a general fashion there are some improvements on the NAM early in the run, later in the run I place less faith on the outcome in terms of the phasing.
  16. frd
    Still way too east for us Might keep trending West, as well as several intense members out there in terms of pressure.
  17. frd
    Pretty cool time series.
  18. frd
    @psuhoffman made mention of this general orientation and currently things are falling into place with an incredible N to S dive of energy. Still a balancing act towards coastal hugger if too ampliufied to the other extreme of a miss wide right.
  19. frd
    EPS continues to improve at hour 120.
  20. frd
    18z
  21. frd
    Several times the mean was 6 inches and zero snow fell within the forecast timeframe. Beyond these maps the only thing worse is the surreal control model. Never is it even close to reality.
  22. frd
    This is encouraging, even if I don't trust the EPS, but I am a sucker. Seriously though, no cutter solutions there.
  23. frd
    The @psuhoffmanstorm. Hey I said it Hopefully performs like the @CAPE storm, dropping 6.25 inches here.
  24. frd
    Can you clarify the period of interest that you mentioned, do you feel that the potential exists for a moderate event for the coastal plain during the time of the Jan. 25th to the 30th?
  25. frd
    Total loss of any trust in that model , EPS included. Waste your time and get your excitment up for a POS model. Can not even get close to a correct forecast a few days away.
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