frd

I love the animation, pretty cool to see things reverse/ retrograde.

psu, are you aware of how the CPC develops its 30 day forecast ? I have not seen many issued over the years that go cold and above normal precip in our area for Jan. Is it a combination of fundamental long range forecasting along with modeling or a specific modeling program? There does seem to be growing support for colder risks and storminess this Jan., based on the HL progression and tropical Pac improvements, including several analogs. I have no idea the eventual outcome of the descending QBO for Feb and March. I believe though we broke the 2009 record for sunspots, as in spotless days last week for 2019 versus 2009. .

@psuhoffman @WxUSAF Do you recall the sensible weather in this area during the period mid Jan to early March of 1987. Regarding the strat evolution as a basis for the question. Thanks

psu, this is right along your lines of thinking I believe and others. I need to study the area of Pac forcing in detail, as there is so much more to it than stating just phases of the MJO. HM mentioned some other factors to consider as well on a global level. Enough to make your head spin a

The depiction of precip there generally matches the CPC 30 day precip outlook for January. Another confidence builder for the STJ to continue moving forward. If I can get those positive precip anomalies combined with the recent, day after tomorrow, cold on the CFS Jan forecast I would be pretty happy. Side note, the SOI although not overaly negative is behaving different than last year at this time, another plus for us down the road.

from psu "Only thing I feel confident in is that we should ignore JB tweets. The only thing worse than his social commentary is his weather commentary. " @psuhoffman wanted to respond in banter but a few weeks ago he tweeted that Twitter was blocking him from posting a climate post when the real reason was simply a technical based within Twitter. I hardly ever read JB these days. He has a great memory for previous patterns and outcomes but he does more social commentary and even the weather tweets are more biased it seems these last five years.

Did someone from here hack the CPC site? Not very often do I see light blue over my area. OK, its a low % forecast, but still, I like it!

True, going to a more Nino-ish look, and poolz as you know, the developments in the HL which Ventrice posted about are somewhat typical of a classic Nino background state / progression as mentioned today by HM. Hopefully then the good results up top continue for us, along with a conducive NAO domain. I propose, maybe the best looks in the HL may still be ahead of us.

The HM storm. Courtesy 33andrain from HM < You've got a few things happening that are signals and not just model noise: 1. Retrogression through early Jan before momentum is added from an East Asian +MT then. 2. Coherent transient wave train across the North Pacific begins in a week which will amplify things then and beyond then. 3. Split flow with retrograding RW across the North Atlantic Early Jan is a time when the RW reaches our longitude with potentially enough beforehand to bring the baroclinic zone to the coast. So while we're coming out of a milder period, the right timing could work with this. Climo would favor interior vs coastal plain, however, with a retreating TPV and lack of big cold shot. I'm hoping for another lucky trace just after xmas, haha. The Northeast will not "torch," in this pattern but the variability will continue of course. >

In the COD, but still kind of blah. Slight trend noted below.

@psuhoffman something else for you to ponder. As a connection to the record + IOD ( Also note the SH SWE also had implications - see Amy's post below ) Maybe we need to look to Australia for clues to the long term changes in our weather here, ( focus on Jan , Feb, and March ) regarding the + IOD and the progression of the Pac, including the MJO. Speculation that maybe we need to see the current pattern there start to change. Just a little speculation on my part. Some locations there are forecast to have their hottest temp for ANY time of the year, that is really remarkable. Again, another piece of the puzzle. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/18/australia-has-its-hottest-day-record-sydney-residents-brace-heat-fires-smoke/ The heat is forecast to peak Friday in Adelaide, where the forecast high temperature is 113 degrees (45 Celsius), as well as Melbourne, which is predicted to reach 109 degrees (43 Celsius). The BOM is also forecasting that many locations will break monthly records for the hottest temperatures in December. In fact, some places in New South Wales could see their hottest temperature on record for any time of the year, particularly Saturday, according to BOM meteorologist Blair Trewin.

So true , I long for snow cover and cold temps near the holidays and the solstice. Up next is the complexity of early Jan to mid Jan.and what the sensible weather is going to be around here. Time for some cheesecake to ease the pain, but seriously, I am still hopeful though that we get our snow and cold. The idea from @psuhoffman that we get a brutal several week onslaught of winter is one such possibility that I see. Hopefully some clarity will arrive soon.

I believe you also have to re-visit what was posted a week or so ago, the up coming period, and even beyond, has a very high level of model difficulty in terms of forecasting. Many competing forces, and changes abound in certain areas of the NH.

Stir the pot in Jan possible. - AO is all I ask for. Looking at that depiction seems different from recent years, I believe. Ventrice states the ECM depiction below matches up to his precursor SSWE composite. Looks fairly close to me. Just another thing to monitor in fantasy land.

I can only guess this might be related to what @tombo82685 posted earlier that the GEFS might have this outcome because of implied coupling from the previous event in early December. Funny thing is that the GEFS is biased, I believe, in being too aggressive at times with things such as HL warming events, etc. So, maybe it is wrong in its outcome, however, as you posted psu it still accelerates the pattern flip. There is always too the possibility the GEFS has the right idea this time. IMO the environment for coupling may have merit, even if for a short duration. However, caveats apply , as stated earlier by HM with the NWP.

Will be interesting to see how things continue to progress this month and next. Two things : Granted the visual look is still warm neutral enso state. However, I believe the takeaway is more favorably placed tropical forcing is ahead , combined with a weakening + IOD and slow warming spreading East in time, along the lines of what Webb stated, hence an improving pattern .

Back to the West Pac and the Nino

Agree here, good point. This may be setting up the two different outcomes.

Can't deny the STJ so far this season........... eventually you have to think they time up correctly for us.

This period has shown interest. The vortex continues to get pressured, zonal winds are forecast to decrease as well , No SSWE on the table, more so the vortex displacements/elongations. IMHO still feel the key to getting sustained cold and snow threats is going to be the improvements in the Pac. As psu alluded to we don't require a stellar Pac later in the season, but we do need deep cold air sources and help from the NAO domain. If the Pac will not cooperate we will indeed need the - NAO domain to deliver. I like to see some really cold air build up in Canada and an improvement in storm tracks allowing us the potential for over running events. Last winter if you recall the storm tracks many times were cutters and inland runner. Let us see if we can reshuffle the cards after the warm up .

Regarding the - EPO once more ........

Snow that hangs around a bit would be cool! Also, an interesting look - like a 1960s-ish which @psuhoffman posted a while back. In those blocking winters of the 1960s winters really ramp up after the 1 st of the year. Plus, the look you posted Bob tends to fit the blocking signature in the Atlantic you find in some of the low solar min periods.

For once it would be nice for the CFSv2 to verify. Analog-wise this forecast does have some support.

In regards to the EPS we have seen it miss the -EPO previously this Fall. I recall one such event. Different ballgame this go around, but Webb states the EPS does not have a good track record with seeing the early signs of a -EPO event at times. Read that over at 33. But, BAMWX has also brought this up previously as well.

I propose the bias of both models in regards to the ensuing pattern change. The GEFS rushing things while the EPS taking too long. Ninja by WxUSAF