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Of note the IOD area and the NE Pac

Interesting

After a minor peak upwards the IOD is down to + 0.12 the lowest yet 20191021,20191027,2.06 20191028,20191103,2.01 20191104,20191110,1.67 20191111,20191117,1.58 20191118,20191124,1.36 20191125,20191201,1.14 20191202,20191208,0.86 20191209,20191215,0.82 20191216,20191222,0.56 20191223,20191229,0.31 20191230,20200105,0.17 20200106,20200112,0.34 20200113,20200119,0.12

Regarding the PNA and the Euro - this is interesting.

So far this winter the JMA has been doing rather well I believe with features inside of weeks two. Until recently when it forecasted the - EPO to develop and it was a false alarm. I feel the - EPO will not be denied indefinitely. Would make sense for it to show in Feb. Then, on its coat tale, would be possible - NAO period later in Feb., or more likely in early March based on the seasonal odds.

Looks like an attempt to start altering the NAM state as we begin Feb. Expected impacts would be later in the month, but we might start to see a more favorable HL background as soon as mid Feb. Should this occur, there is the possibility it might lock in for a couple weeks towards later Feb and early March. As we get deeper in Feb. hopefully a more robust cold air source gets established in Canada, that we can tap into. Maybe the process begins soon.

Ha ha yea, the true impact was way further North, simply trying to cheer myself up. Until the vortex weakens and the NAM state changes I would into any snow solution for us. Might be near Feb 20th that there is a chance into March, otherwise more of the same. Too many issues in the overall NH pattern. The seasonal models months ago continue to have correctly forecasted the NAM state and the lack of any significant NAO blocking. All we can hope is a very, very back loaded winter. The previous record + IOD , along with other issues are really taking time to resolve.

Little bit more on the AAM

I don't care what anyone else says, I am viewing HM's post in the context that we are getting a March blizzard this year. I mean why else would he post this, right . Who cares about the NAM state right now.

Maybe a regime change near Alaska down the road.

Alright HM.

As a follow up from the Met GloSea5 model animation, here is the GFS. I give you this as consideration of a displacement event, but not a SSW. I feel a SSWE is very unlikely. However, ongoing down the road this might help induce a change in later Feb with the NAM state. Not sure what the latest is with heat flux, I know up to this point it has been meager.

Made a post a little while back being a little more favorable about cold for Feb, given a variety of factors. I feel the Pac may become more conducive but mentioned the NAM state. I mentioned I was hoping we start to see some changes with the AO going more neutral and even negative during Feb. I do feel that is going to take a while. A few days back I think the EPS 46 had the AO positive into late Feb. Not sure the latest. I see this AM Furtado posted this. I imagine he is referring to having the blocking needed to secure a more longer lasting cold period. I think it is too early too worry about this. Maybe the blocking will arrive simply deeper into Feb. Other factors may compensate and help us with snow and cold opportunities, earlier in the month regardless of the NAM state.

Looking into Feb. it appears the MJO will be a plus, versus a negative. Still hopeful for opportunities. Really like to see an improvement in the NAM state. I would hope it starts to show up in the next couple weeks. from bluewave for those into the MJO: < It looks like the models are going for forcing in the MJO 6 and 1- 2 regions the next few weeks. So we’ll have to see what that combination looks like in the actual pattern. Plus the +AAM spike gets added to the mix. So a continuation of La Niña and El Niño influences which shows up in the split flow. >

That would work, and make a lot of folks happy. And, the best part , as you mentioned, is that the active period continues well past this time of interest into Feb. And IMHO, it may remain active with the STJ as the more traditional Nino-ish background state exerts itself more.

Exactly, and by all means, another tool to add to provide a better idea of the potential.

@poolz1 Might be looking at a displacement event coming up in mid to late Feb. And, how about that , close to the vortex vacillation date of the 20th. May work in tandem with the STJ ,and be an additional player in a somewhat improved overall pattern by that time. I believe the GloSea5 does well in this area.

Matter of time before the Control scores a huge one. Seriously though, it has been rather close in terms of storm windows and threats, only issue was the warmer profiles so far this winter.

Maybe a start.......

Weep and cry to the record negative cycle in the warm season. This is one of the best running representations of the NAO I have ever seen. Two notes, one the record -NAO from Spring to summer, and the other is the ability, at a short range, to forecast the NAO .

Willing to venture a guess when, or if, that wall ever breaks down? Or, does it evolve in such as way, later in Feb. to allow a penetration of arctic air to the lower latitudes via a PV elongation or slight displacement event. I still like Feb 18 th to the 22 nd simply based on previous behavior of the pv since November. The idea which HM brought up, about a strong winter vortex following a certain period of waxes and waning, such as the vacillation cycle near the 20th of the month. As we get to early March, as mentioned previously, the IO signal favors cold and who knows, maybe the descending QBO effect begins to kick in on a subtle scale.

Thanks Tom. Great news to hear. I have to wonder myself the implication of the lag effect and whether next winter might be too soon to achieve it. However, there are couple intriguing elements to consider next winter, one of which is the well established - QBO .

I bet for most areas the biggest negative temp departures from normal occurred during the deep - EPO of November. That was some impressive cold for so early in the season.

Wonder if we do achieve some sort of change with momentum displacement to 40 north and above, as Hugo mentions. A cold or colder March this year certainly seems like a possibility. Cold enough for snow in the Northern Mid Atlantic is the question though. Latest EPS I saw a couple days ago keeps the EPO positive and the AO as well. , But maybe we can still achieve a change for the better in the NAM state later in Feb and in early March.

Great comments here and post form HM. Anthony also mentioned this regarding the IO forcing, that it is a cold signal late in the winter. " ...the other variable is the Feb wavelength, with low frequency forcing of niño, can amplify the PNA pattern. But if this forcing isn't present or reduced and the vortex is strong, it probably won't be a reoccurring feature. IO forcing becomes a colder signal late winter. (2/2) "