Ji

Like the Nao that we were seeing a few days ago for late January where Bob said it was practically a done deal since we has managed to get it down to 7 days.

Sucks cause op gfs has never been wrong 300 hours out before

only by the terrible GFS. Euro or GGEM never did that

this is banter lol..i can say winter is over and it dosent really affect anything. Isnt this where we joke around?

bob chill has left the board and Don sutherland gave up...so yea...winter is over

@donsutherland1 has raised the white flag.

we have just never tried the trailing wave in a colder patter yet so maybe.....

this is only notable thing i saw. It sounds like a DC screw job https://www.nytimes.com/1988/02/13/us/major-snowstorm-cuts-path-from-south-to-new-england.html

12z icon picks up where the EPS left off. Hates the weekend threat but likes the 29/30th. I think thats the date to watch"the trailing wave storm"

yep! sorry. Feb 88 is dismal

there might of been a warm wet snow 12 inch event feb in 88. Ill have to check but there was a storm dropped a foot of extremely wet snow after reaching mid 50s that afternoon

@psu...saw something interesting from Ian. The analogs of EPS Days 11-15). LOL. #1 is a total crap fest and 2 is historic. Means nobody knows anything or where we are going

yea it was a bad idea. Storm Noise and long range patterns go hand in hand.....it would make more sense to have a thread for the Jan 29-30 Storm potential(if there was one). Right now there is no storm to track so both threads are being used for the same thing

im going to the NY thread to troll Donald S. See you guys

i think whats more troubling than the brief MJO state is the SOI hardly tanked and now has been positive for 5 days in a row. Many of our great storms followed a really good SOI tanking

Leesburg04 makes 2-3 good points a year but the same long range guidance(10-15) that got us so excited is now showing a new look that may not even verify if past performance this winter is an indication. There is no way on jan 3, we could of seen a 12 inch snowstorm coming to DC. I think the MJO this time around wont play as as big of a factor. its in a bad phase right now but we are not in a shutout pattern. By early Feb, it should be in should be in Phase 7(probably COD) so we need another excuse. Techically, where MJO and its ampllitude... is right now we should have a big fat ridge. I bet the long range is completely different 3 days from now

relax? A relax from Feb 1 to 10? The whole winter has been relax. What is Feb 1-10 relaxing from?

We have had some really good tracks this winter that didnt have cold. Mid dec comes to mind

Your more patient over the years and you fight for your pattern. But when you turn...it gets ugly lol

HM and many experts busted...the weeklies have busted all year. What was supposed to be a magical period is turning into trying to fight for winter not being over.

its really the only thing i saw positive...and the 00z ukmet.

I didnt see individual members but the euro ensemble mean shows a hit up the coast. thats a pretty decent signal

Looked at all the models.... Tonight may have been the most disastrous run of the year

Gonna just ride the weeklies till winter ends in 10 days

00z has alot of hl blocking this run