I was thinking same thing. I don't think anyone has a good handle on the pattern. Everytime something they have a clue...the opposite happens. Mjo is stronger than expected. A nao showing within 5 days disappear. The polar vortex split weeks ago and they cant even get it to snow in Boston in late January. HM thought a midwest blizzard would change the Nao...nothing. And the snowstorm we got showed up during Bob's meltdown window. The models are the drivers of forecasting and nobody can predict the models