Rjay

The ensemble support is overwhelming at this point for an impactful storm for our subforum.. No need to wait. This will be one long ass thread.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51916-january-20th-22nd-winter-storm-threat/

Utoh, I did it....

There is strong ensemble support for a winter storm in this time frame. All storm related posts belong in here. This will be the first of many threats in the coming weeks. All pattern disco and threats beyond this period can go in the January Disco/obs thread. And yes, I just started a thread for a storm ~7 days away. As we get closer to the 20th, banter will need to be limited. I hope everyone enjoys tracking this storm. Good luck to all.

I'm probably going to do something very weenish and very soon

Not that it matters because it doesnt but I think the fv3 had a run with lots of freezing rain and temps between 8-12 degrees.

The sref is trash

It's ridiculous. Until something else suppprts it I would keep my expectations extemely low. I think it's around 5".

Wx-board poison. The whole point is to discuss these things. Yes, take OP runs at this range with a grain of salt but the ensembles all have a solid storm signal that can't be ignored. The pattern supports multiple opportunities for significant winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.

No recognition of the type of pattern we are entering by many. It might not end up producing but the potential has a high ceiling.

Lol did anyone see the srefs?

Too many people staring at RMM plots when we have big time potential in the not too distance future.

Lol

Post day 10 gfs op run.. Late Feb 2010 part Deux

I think some real arctic air comes down into our area after 20th-22nd threat.

Now i know it's coming

It's post 2000 so we'll find a way to snow.

The euro gets squashed. What a mess for DC weenies.

I went +2 in the temp contest In my experience looking at the ICON, it should never be used...like ever.

URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005 ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH... RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

I rarely do. Euro/Ukie > GFS/CMC. It's a good rule to live by. But as for this storm, we'll see.

I remember when the NAM gave me 52" 24 hours before Juno lol. I saved the map but can't find it