WxUSAF

Maple buds are really starting to show. Cherries too. 

Don’t know about snow, but I think a few hard freezes seem likely. Plenty cold to kill the magnolia tree blossoms that are going to come out next week probably…

Gorgeous sunrise alert

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Drive through Codorus today, the lake is very low. Surprising, we’ve been reasonably wet. 

Despite a dry February, I think we’re pretty good with a major AN December and January. Plus guidance suggests 2”+ over the next 10 days after today’s rain. 
 

But I remain ever vigilant 

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It really is time to find something else to do.

I’m on drought watch for summer 

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

It's another tropical flooding rainstorm. One thing we do great in our new climo is tropical rain. It's killing off our oak trees at an alarming rate. Our forest are going to be full of invasive plants and trash trees. Forget the lack of snow. This shit is killing our forest. 

Heavy tropical rain and probably 50 degrees. 

I dunno…seems like this is going to be a second major underperformance on totals. 18z 3k NAM yesterday had me at 1.25” and globals were pretty uniform around 0.6-0.8”. 

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think JB is ready to go cold next winter after a brief lapse in judgement

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1763572698871910638/photo/2

89-90, 95-96, 10-11 top analogs.

Happy dumbest month of the year!

Low of 26 to start March 

Precip totals underperformed yesterday. CoCoRaHS mostly in the 0.1-0.4” range through the metro corridor. Only places above 0.5” in southern MD, lower Delmarva, and down toward RIC.

Have some work to do to get the 0.5-1” totals that guidance has been advertising.

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

February

Thanks chief 

^Dear lord…what month is it!?

49 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Anyone seen Mappy lately? I feel like she hasn't been on the board all winter. 

She told me she’s out as of an incident in late January 

I am once again asking meteorologists in the media to stop normalizing above  normal temperatures 

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Absolutely. He’s done this in the past in giving early hints about a warm winter forecast only to backtrack by trying to find a reason to go colder or at least sow doubt about warmth. When was the last time he went warm throughout the E 1/3 of the US and stuck with it? I can’t even recall anything resembling that. His cold bias for the E US is awful.

I’d bet my retirement that 95-96 will be one of his top analogs

Apparently I had sleet this morning 

Low of 21

My son says he saw flurries in Columbia/Ellicott city. I could not confirm.

Colton Cowser walk off!

1 hour ago, DDweatherman said:

Great discussion above, the PDO seems to really be more a driving factor than it has been before. The “base state” comments really have merit given the Pacific just spoiling our chances more than once at a big dog pattern with staying power. I need to do more digging into the QBO to see if that has some pertinence since our longer term telecomms seem to be the bigger factor. Things like the MJO seem to mean a fair bit less than they used to. 

also on a side note, why so much effort to move posts from thread to thread? This is a free forum and it’s volunteer work to be a mod. I salute the dedication, but seems like there are more important things in life than moving posts from thread to thread. There’s no weather going on currently. 

 Because as in the past, this area of discussion quickly takes over every single active thread. I’ve seen it before across 4 threads simultaneously and it’s exhausting to have that everywhere and not fair to people who don’t want to read it. 

19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like i picked the wrong week to not check the LR thread daily 

I literally move a bunch of posts and the conversation just continues anyway 

8 minutes ago, asalt1 said:

Mods must still be asleep...

Believe it or not I have other things going on in my life

Other thread!