WxUSAF

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

18/6 here

Enjoy your virga!

41/18

Difference for MBY between 3k NAM and gfs is like 0.05” of precip? 

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

I've rapidly transitioned to head in the sand mode.  I'm ignoring anything negative.

Snow starts in like 9-12 hours. Chips fall time.

Think 4-5” is the most probably range for me. Maybe 3.5-5.5” for a wider distribution.

13 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yeah... but both the HRRR/RAP has the best snows in south central PA now

Looking forward to snow on snow after the 6-8” I got Tuesday per the Hrrr/rap combo forecast 

Hoping the thunder and lightning wakes me up. Otherwise I’ll be up to measure between 530-630.

Euro a huge Nittany Lions fan

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Think my bar yesterday was too low. 

I almost can’t believe we’re going to pull off another 11th hour max potential 

Double swoon

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

4 to 6 area wide, 6-8  DC N and West up to Mont county.  

Swoon

The juicing has begun. Love to see the 0.5”+ QPF numbers show up and expand, particularly when they’re over my house 

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

All 10:1 maps are wrong. Most of the Kuchera as well. Multiply your qpf by 12, possibly as high as 15. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

If the soundings look like the 3k NAM at 6-7z around DC, then I think 12:1 during that period is reasonable. 

3k NAM soundings are more impressive vs 12z. Definitely would be big ol’ dendrites for a couple hours from 6-8z.

8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Spring? I hear an early spring popping. Fine by me at this point. Pitchers and catchers are in Florida and Arizona...

Except every orioles player is hurt apparently 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s worse for everyone (not by a lot at all, but worse) unless you are in the northern “fringe” zones. I use fringe in quotes cause we all know where the band sets up in events like these

Booooo…not the reveal I was looking for.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

SOLD.  Looks TASTY

Show me the Kuchie!

Hi RR

3k NAM soundings show strong lift in a saturated DGZ around 7z. 

11 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Every storm this year has had a bit more juice as we closed in on game time. Shouldn’t be any different here. My bar is 4-5 for the Hoco crew. 

Not sure 4-5” is my bar (yet?), but it’s definitely not out of the question. 

38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Looks like a moistening trend has commenced. I think ratios will be higher than 10:1 with this one. We could have some pushing 6” if those precip amounts are accurate. Wonder when the first NAMing will happen? Today I’m thinking.

I figured the juicing trend would start at 0z tonight. Looks like we’re ahead of schedule.

Low of 24. Arctic hounds of 2F below normal!!

5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Semi off-topic, but is TT still down?  It's been out apparently most of the afternoon.

Seems so. Levi posted on Twitter earlier that there’s no estimate for return.

Not sure what it says about anything, but counting this upcoming event, 2 of the 3 most widespread accumulating snow events in our area in a strong Nino are nearly all northern stream lows and the 3rd had significant northern stream influence. 

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Jb was saying 20 30:1 ratios

Remind me to put my snowboard up at 900mb

Gfs has shown that dual-banded look as well