WxUSAF

@Bob Chill cat 5 up the Bay year finally???

Hugging the hell outta the 12z GGEM 

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, finding somewhere with bathroom access is key 

Yup. That was one of my prime criteria in 2017.

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I’ve locked in NY, so now it is all about avoiding that leaf of citrus that will develop.  I’m sure the roads between Syracuse/Watertown/Rochester will be easy to navigate on Monday  

All I’d recommend is picking your spot, get there early, and leave well after totality. Most people will get back in the car right after totality ends. Stay put for another few hours and hopefully traffic calms down. 

I haven’t done a meadow mix. I got some native grass seed and spread some of that with mixed results.

Tomer’s eclipse city dashboard shows 77% of ensemble members have “favorable” or “somewhat favorable” conditions for eclipse viewing west of Austin. Despite the NBM showing 65-80% cloud cover. So maybe that implies just thin cirrus?? That’s what I’m hoping for at this point. I’ll definitely take the under on just about any prediction of convective cloud cover around the totality path. As I recall from 2017, only the hrrr actually accounted for the reduction in insolation? And it made a visible difference in cumulus coverage. 

39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Low of 33. 

Windshield is all frozen 

Low of 33. 

8 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm looking for a batch of native flowering seeds that I can scatter over a 100 x 100 ft area. It's slightly moist, with intermittent sun. Looking to just throw them and see what grows. Any suggestions?

Prairie Nursery and other online nurseries have seed mixes that would probably work for that. 

13 minutes ago, arlwx12 said:

I think I just heard a rumble of thunder. Then another.

Think I had some in Greenbelt just now 

eta…definitely thunder and lightning 

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Over 3" for the event and over 8" since March 1.

Yeah MBY has to be pushing 3” for the week 

58 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

About an inch over the three days.  Pretty boring.

Interpolating CoCoRaHS, I’m between 2 and 3”. 

16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Nice to see a positive shift on the 00z GEFS for the Great Lakes area.  The shortwave is further back to the west and its dropped a lot of its SLPs that were in the OH valley.  And the HP ridging is extending further west.  6z is rolling in now.

 

TX and the Ohio area seem like a zero sum game. Improvement for one means worse weather for the other. Slower progression and a weaker system of that initial low increases cloud and shower chances for TX it seems.

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

And even there I'm not convinced those clouds won't trend worse. Really goes to show you that climo is only a first "guess" - pretty awful maps from the GFS for the US eclipse path  

Apparently GFS has a known bias to overdo cloud cover. I’ve seen that a few places over the last week. 

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Maine almost looks like a solid bet on the latest GFS  

It really does look like the best chance for clear skies. Crazy. 

2 hours ago, Jebman said:

April 7 thru 10 solid clouds with very good rain chances here in Buda. Forecast continues to solidify up with excellent rains and thick clouds. Multiple thick well-developed cloud decks at various altitudes with efficient moisture transport. Probable low level fog as well, due to rain falling into 70 degree dewpoint airmass at 2 meters.  ZERO chance of glimpsing the eclipse thru multiple strong cloud decks.

Eclipse watchers, stay far from Austin. It's gonnabe a Rainer, a multi-day soaker.

It'll be a Rainer to make Washington DC proud in January in a super Nino with a blazing fiery base state like this past ratter of a winter there.

In short, we have a strong soaking Eclipse Special on tap not just on eclipse day but also the preceding day and two days after, for damn good measure!!!!!!!!! I am depressed and inconsolable.  This was my last chance in this lifetime. It's just too bad.

Go to Mexico. Should be dry hot and sunny.

Need to change the title of this ratter of an eclipse  to April 8th Rainy, Socked In Son Of A Bytch, Abandon ALL Fookin' Hope, For The Rest Of Your Miserable Lives Eclipse.

I'll tell you what's to blame for this frackin' debacle. It's that fiery blazing hot venusian base state, and its partners in crime, the bloated Hadley Cells and fooked up MJO. Just like those sobs did in the Mid Atlantic this past ratter of a pathetically skunked up so called winter.

Who's jaded now?

 

0z ops look workable? GGEM has clear skies for the eclipse verbatim! Looks like a band of showers moves through Sunday at some point but most of Monday is dry right now. 0z GFS actually has the scenario I was rooting for with the energy more consolidated in the storm that moves into the Plains on Sunday and nothing hanging behind. 
 

p.s. NBM cloud map from Pivotal is the best I’ve seen it yet!

6 minutes ago, Jebman said:

It's official.  80 percent chance of heavy rain on April 8th.

Everyone going to Texas it's high time to bail. It's gonna be a three day cloudy blow.

Maybe everyone is gonnabe cloudy.

I think there is still time to change airline resses without too much of a penalty. 

Or take out a home equity loan and charter a 747 and watch the eclipse.  Too bad I will miss it for sure. Fook this life, everything is going to shyte. No doubt about that, now.

I’ve got nonrefundable hotel and airline. I’m coming to Texas. The rain will be dark at least.

@MN Transplant I think you’re right for TX. Based on my experience in 2017, the reduced solar will suppress convection for 2-3 hours centered on totality. Cumulus field totally dissipated in South Carolina in 2017 when I was there and reformed after. 
 

Still seems like best case for TX is for the storm/trough to be more consolidated and push through with force Sunday and clear behind on Monday. Trend on guidance though is for another shortwave to dump into the trough and get stuck near the 4 corners area. 

Had thunder at 515 or so. We’ve really maxed out elevated convection early this year.

Thunder. Did not expect that.

6 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

I don't think the cloud cover maps are worth anything at this lead, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous for TX. Pretty overwhelming signal for at least some cloud cover if not precip at the leeside of the trough. Need that thing to hold off 24 hours or so.

Odds have of sunny skies have definitely increased in New England and near the Lakes with the ridge, but I caution that mesoscale processes that can't be sniffed yet have often ruined sunny days. I would not really feel comfortable on the northern edge just knowing climo. 

I'm staying in San Antonio but bracing for a backup in Arkansas. Backup to the backup is in Illinois or Missouri. And final option would be Boston to northern New England. Hopefully doesn't come to that.

I might be back to rooting for that front/trough to speed up and stay more consolidated. 

Ensembles trending wrong way for TX 

12z GEFS continues slower western trough trend, although not weaker. 

Somewhat positive start to the 12z suite with gfs and GGEM ops both again weakening and slowing the western trough. Keeps TX dry although verbatim there’s still clouds. 

^disaster

Starting to get pretty worried. 

trend is for that western trough to be weaker and slower. I was hoping it would actually be faster and clear TX before Monday. But that doesn’t look like it’s happening. So I think I need to continue to root for weaker and slower and hope it doesn’t start pulling moisture into TX until Tuesday or after.