WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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The Xmas torch is the most consistent aspect of our climate.
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Down to 25 already
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It moved a lot closer to something actually, yes. Look at the two shortwaves out west at 12z vs 0z
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Yeah and all in the bad direction so far lol
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Agreed. Slower than gfs, but looks like 6z gfs with how it’s starting to phase the shortwaves.
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Low of 24
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GEFS has some nice hits next weekend
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Wtf was that? Fix in for the chiefs yet again
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Nice happy hour hit for VA next weekend on gfs
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These guys say pattern continues in mid December fwiw. Some cold analogs in that group.
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2-4” of snow over 2 weeks isn’t much of a signal for anything in January or February. But it’s respectable for the first 2 weeks of December.
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Low of 32. Hopefully warmest low temp for awhile.
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Omg Bears botched that soooo badly
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Dusting-1.5” on euro next week from a clipper
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GEFS on board EPS too…
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Even if the trough retracts westward, it looks more central CONUS-based rather than a deep -PNA as is typical in a Niña. Wouldn’t be a shit-the-blinds look. But let’s see what develops over the next 2 weeks first?
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Happy thanksgiving, weenies. Approaching 0.5” of rain today. Morning low was 41.5.
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DCA: 9.1” IAD: 14.5” BWI: 14.3” RIC: 7.8” SBY: 7.2”
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Yeah that looks nice. GEFS pretty similar, just less intense in the height anomalies. Both show us BN for the duration and precip bumps up starting late next week.
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I mean, when was the last warning level snowfall in DC in December? 2009?? There are reasons to be encouraged obviously. We need anomalously cold air in the first half of December to even have a chance. But this could be the winteriest December in years for our area and we could still end up with 2-4” of snow total…
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Yeah it looked good. Gfs is a parade of northern stream clippers that all manage to barely screw us lol. Either way, all showing potential by late next week and beyond.
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I mean, of course the ensemble doesn’t match a fantasy range storm on the Op? GEFS does show a lot more precipitation coming out of the gulf and southern plains by late next week though. Clearest signal seems to be around the 10th, but that’ll probably change.
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Enough models showing something late next week (Thursday-Friday) to have that as the first real window to watch. But pretty scattershot set of solutions obviously.
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EPS seems to be doing the same thing but later by a couple days. We’ll see how it all evolves in time.
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Not within the next 16 days at least according to the GEPS and GEFS. A little SER or WAR can be ok to keep the storm track close when we also have cold air established. But in this case, having the whole pattern move a bit west lets the Gulf open up potentially.
