WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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It’s that time again, despite the fact #endlesssummer2019 is still in full swing. You are forecasting the first day the temperature reaches 32F at BWI, IAD, DCA, and RIC. Tiebreaker is cumulative October precipitation at all 4 of those airports (I.e., one number). This thread will lock when October starts so you have a week! Happy freezing!
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I’d lock in the entire 12z gfs if I could. Dare I say rainy and a very cool start to October?
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So hot. This just needs to end. JB is doing his “find some blue on a map” twitter game to show how everything is totally normal.
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HM is teasing
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Longer winter wavelengths would help a lot if we had that beast of a -NAO with a 50/50 low underneath. But a deep upper low off the west coast is never what we want.
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Where are some good places to live near DC to maximize snow potential?
WxUSAF replied to Hoosier's topic in Mid Atlantic
Buffalo is a 45 minute flight away -
Ugh https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1175108328281825282?s=21
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BWI down to 49 this morning.
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He better be back or I’m driving around Rockville until I find him
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As of a couple days ago, airports were 4-5F AN.
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Persistent 5-10F above normal puts us basically in August normal range, so I don’t really think it’s hyperbole. Upper 80s for highs in late September or early October is 15F or more above normal. I think every forgets what normal should be, which is why everyone acts like it’s a fall preview when we have seasonally normal temps.
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Sky is blue. Water is wet.
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GFS/GEFS seem to have a bias toward cool downs at the end of their runs. Ian commented on this a few weeks ago on Twitter. Might give us (and JB) a lot of false alarms of cold this winter if it continues.
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Someone figured out why BWI is running so hot this year
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Whoa ho ho. 0.03”! Monthly total up to 0.03”.
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Liquid sky droplets falling again!
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Had some sort of liquid droplets briefly falling from the sky just now. Couldn’t identify them. Mostly vaporized upon contact with the ground.
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High of 98 at BWI. JFC
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Skunked again
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Last September was 5.2F above normal at BWI and the first 11 days of October were an absolute torch.
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Last year was super late with how warm and wet it was. Definitely well ahead of that pace.
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Definitely seeing some color on certain trees and vines. Poison ivy showing some red and some maples have color. Maybe stress induced from the dry weather?
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Find someone who loves you the way the new GFS loves strong fantasyland cold fronts
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This is more of a gut instinct than anything else, but I think with sufficient sample size and no background climate forcing change, our winters would be snowier with increasing positive ENSO until you reach super nino where it’s probably a bit of a wildcard based on temps. So weak nino should be better than neutral or any Nina. Again, just a gut feeling.
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My God I’m so tired of warm/hot and dry. It’s like Stephens City around here.
