WxUSAF

Euro holds off the rain for after the Ravens game. GFS brings it in for the game. Go Euro!

Tropical forcing progression supports the evolution of the Pac ridge like what the GEPS shows. The current MJO wave should progress toward the dateline which are cold phases for us. This pattern shown by Ventrice supports a cold eastern conus. Especially if the forcing NE of Australia is centered nearer or just east of the dateline.

MJO forecasts always have a bias of killing the wave off too quickly. That strong of a wave with steady eastward progression won’t suddenly die in phase 6.

Lots of 1 step forward 1 step back on the long range ensembles. It’s clear nothings happening for awhile. Hope for a Feb 15 level turnaround.

GEFS goes ape sh-t on the Scand ridge and starts around D10 so not too far out in fantasyland. EPO also teaches poleward through AK. Still not a great pattern but could be close to a workable one by the end if it worked out that way.

I had 7.2” from that event

I had just over 3” from that.

Getting the Scand ridge pumping is good in a couple ways: 1. Can retrograde into the -NAO domain/extend over the pole 2. Combined with a strong WPO/EPO ridge, that's a good wave 2 hit to the Strat PV and can be a precursor to a SSW

It’s a game changer

Euro was apparently nearly on its own relative to its own ensembles the last couple days too in regards to that storm.

Euro totally caved on the weekend thing.

Yeah boundary layer is torched, but a stronger low could help that. Timing between the northern and southern stream lows as well.

Gfs wants none of what the euro has for the weekend, but is close for next week’s chance.

If you believe the MJO forecasts, we get a strong wave that emerges in the torch phases in 7ish days, but the forecasts have it propagating eastward and it should reach phase 7 at least by the 3rd week of January. If that happens it would shake things up. Phase 7 in January is workable for us.

Looks more shortwave than longwave in that. The Pac ridge still supports the mean trough axis along or even just west of the west coast.

Don’t know about after D10, but I like the Eps longwave pattern from D8-10 better than the GEFS. Deeper okhotsk low pumps a larger WPO/EPO ridge which gets the trough axis over NA better for us. Also a weaker TPV (and somewhat split) on the Eps as well as a stronger Scandinavian ridge.

@Bob Chill, not sure if this is the evolution the GEFS is picking up, but I think there’s a window for frozen from around the 5th through the 10-11th. Seems the Eps and other runs today support a cold shot in that window. Best snow shot is probably as that cold air lifts out. Maybe a smaller chance on the front end of the cold air, but best chance probably at the end. Way too far out for any details, but maybe GEFS is showing that general potential.

Wow, that's a rough look at D15 on the EPS, @psuhoffman. I just saw the D10 and thought that looked pretty workable actually.

BWIs had 0.3”

Gfs and GEFS show that there could be chances after New Years. Not much more to say though. Longwave pattern still fairly hostile to any big storm, but should be seasonable temperatures so possibilities for smaller events might be there.

Yup, euro goes with the “fringed by 35F rain” scenario. Have that lead piece that cuts to the lakes strong enough to pull some cold air and maybe something like the euro could work. Think the GGEM did that a couple days ago.

GEFS is fair. After having the TPV wander over to Alaska over the next 5 days it then gets pulled east to Baffin Island by d10. Could be better, but keeping it over the pole or in Alaska would be far worse. Looks like it has some coastal solutions in the mix as well D10-12. As for the storm around the 30th, even if that storm stays south of us, our airmass is hot garbage so it could just make for cool rain. At least with the gfs solution, the storm is strong enough to pull south a nice winter airmass that potentially sets up a conducive playing field on and after NY.

Seems that way to me. To respond to your post @Bob Chill, yes, seems that’s where we are now. Looking past D10 has been a fools errand this year so far, so we shouldn’t try it now. Right now it looks bad past D10, but maybe it changes. Right now through D10, it looks warm for the next 7 days or so, then maybe seasonable with a low chance for some winter weather through D10. Maybe something pops up on the progs on Xmas or Boxing Day. That’s when I’d start looking for something.

Op gfs (and 6z GEFS at least) definitely show there’s a window for winter weather after the cutter around the 30th. It’s probably only a few days, but there’s a PNA spike, transitory 50-50 low, and the TPV over Baffin Island stays out of the way. Plus a continued active southern stream.

It doesn’t really happen when there’s a coherent MJO wave. Right now there’s not one though which is why that phase diagram looks that way, it’s trying to put multiple conflicting signals into a single number.