WxUSAF

Op gfs (and 6z GEFS at least) definitely show there’s a window for winter weather after the cutter around the 30th. It’s probably only a few days, but there’s a PNA spike, transitory 50-50 low, and the TPV over Baffin Island stays out of the way. Plus a continued active southern stream.

It doesn’t really happen when there’s a coherent MJO wave. Right now there’s not one though which is why that phase diagram looks that way, it’s trying to put multiple conflicting signals into a single number.

Looking at the tropical forcing forecasts now compared to 5-10 days ago, I think some of the issue is that the west IO standing wave was forecast to quickly diminish, and now that’s no longer true. It’s weakening, but not to the degree that was previously forecast. Similarly, the subsidence over the west Pac (where we ideally want strong convection) is also persisting into early January. The decline of the IOD says that that pattern will get shaken loose, but it seems to be taking longer than expected. I think the MJO phase 6 shown on those phase diagrams is really a mix of the IO standing wave in phase 2 or so and a little bit of convection that starts to fire over the maritime continent in the next week.

It’s showing a pattern at the end of the run that we’re very familiar with over the last 5-10 years...-EPO/++NAO. Not much consistency past D10. Still shows the pattern reshuffle start around the 28th. That can isn’t getting kicked so far. Seems clear for now that we start purging the Pac airmass after that, but details still TBD.

Euro has that strong ridge pushing into the Pac northwest just like GEFS by D10. That ridge is what shuffles things in our favor on the GEFS.

1" today, 1.2" on the season.

Thought BWI and IAD only reported a T. Thanks for correcting that wrong impression!

DCA had 0.3”. Oof that’s REALLY embarrassing

Despite that, by my calculations 0.2/0, December 2019 is now infinitely snowier than December 2018.

12/11: 0.2" Losing to @C.A.P.E. and @H2O, how embarrassing.

It’s not just sleet. It gives freezing rain like a 20:1 ratio.

Something’s really funky with TT’s snow maps in the mid and long range.

BWI: 20.3” DCA: 14.7” IAD: 22.5” RIC: 12.1” SBY: 9.8”

You already busted at Richmond by three orders of magnitude

Bragger

I’ll definitely have an entry but want to know how much November snow we have first

The 2019 First Freeze Contest has come to an end! DCA hit 32 early this morning. @yodaand @mappy have tied! Both had a departure of 14 total days. But this is America! The tiebreaker this year was summed total October precipitation at all 4 airports. @mappy went with a continuation of our dry September and only forecasted 8" total. @yoda went a little wetter with 12.26". But the real total smashed both those numbers, with 23.5" recorded. In this case, close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and the Mid-Atlantic first freeze tiebreaker! Which means @yoda wins by tiebreaker! @mappy obviously comes in 2nd place! @MN Transplant, who unfortunately had the poor luck of trying to rely on DCA to hit 32F before midnight last night ties for 3rd place with me, your humble contest organizer, with a total departure of 15 days. @Rhino16 rounds out the top 5 with a departure of 17 days. 2019 First Freeze Contest.xlsx

Chin up, DCA will probably stay above freezing the whole night somehow.

Appreciate your thoughts. Hope you’re wrong, but appreciate your thoughts nonetheless. Certainly impossible to deny that the SE ridge has been dominant this year and that winter +NAO has been a decadal trend. What do your analogs show for November? Did they suggest the cold pattern that seems likely to last the first 2-3 weeks of the month at least.

RIC hitting today changes things. If DCA hits Saturday, @yoda and @mappy would tie. If DCA hits Friday, @MN Transplant wins outright.

@biodhokie and @tplbge tied for the lead with a departure of 2 days, with @biodhokie hitting BWI exactly. @Stormpc next with a departure of 3 days. If DCA and RIC hit next Saturday as looks likely with the forecast, @biodhokie would win with @yoda coming in 2nd.

Found another link: https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_table_mesodyn.cgi?stn=KIAD&unit=0&time=LOCAL&year1=2014&month1=4&day1=07&hour1=08&hours=24&past=0&order=1 Low of 30 at IAD, 32 at BWI, 35 at RIC, and 37 at DCA.

Woo!

Weather.gov pages I use to look at the airport obs stopped updating around midnight. Weird. Anyone have another link?

Ready and waiting. I bet IAD and BWI hit tonight or Monday morning . Maybe RIC too. DCA probably waits until next weekend .