WxUSAF

There’s a strong standing wave over the West Indian Ocean associated with MJO phase 8 and +IOD. It’s not an MJO wave per se, but might force the forcing to behave that way.

HM says don’t jump

Going to be mowing into February it looks like. Maybe throw some seed down?

Yeah I still really like the 3rd-4th period. Eps looks tasty for that time. Ensembles have moved toward more +PNA in that time as well. Might also be worth keeping a small eye on the big December 1 cutter. That airmass is trending colder ahead of the storm and if a piece can break off, the flow will carry it to our south. Overnight gfs and GGEM have a threat of front end frozen/freezing precip.

Euro is quite chilly for the holiday weekend. Cold and windy. Looks like I won’t have to worry about the leftovers that my mother in law stores on her porch spoiling.

Barney Claus comes to visit! I’m banking on the GFS long range cold bias here. That’s just cold and dry and then it lifts out for a cutter. A more modest EPO flex coupled with a 50-50 low could keep the storm track under us with sufficient cold air. Looks like GGEM is going that route.

Yes, also EPO driven.

EPO driven patterns can work for us as we know, but storms are hard to predict and appear at short notice. I’m not sold on the NAO going poof 7-10 days after it arrives. Overnight Eps keeps a bit of it going all the way until 360hrs. GEFS seems good at sniffing out changes in the long range, but typically rushes things. Either way, seems like we’ll have an active pattern with the STJ looking very Nino like and plenty of cold around with the EPO and NAO. That’s a good recipe any time and especially in early December when we need some help. Climo snowfall the first two weeks of December is pretty low, but for now, odds seem better than climo. I still like the 3rd-8th period or so, but remember that we often do better towards the end of a good pattern, not the beginning. FWIW, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen HM honk like this. Well at least not for awhile.

Still got the weeklies this evening to ruin the fun parade

Yeah, that’s the key. Have that ridge onshore and we’re in a decent spot. Throw in a tendency for -NAO and a 50-50 and oh boy...

^I’d take that look in a second. Eps D10 looks very nice and that D15 looks good too. Notice how the NAO breakdown keeps happening at D13+ in each ensemble mean. It’s not getting any closer. Yet at least. And the return of the -EPO for early December is becoming more likely. I also like how the Eps has the EPO ridge axis closer to the west coast. Sign me up.

That’s probably not a terrible equation? I’d be really interested if you actually did a running comparison of that and see how it verified.

BWI: 20.3” DCA: 14.7” IAD: 22.5” RIC: 12.1” SBY: 9.8”

You shouldnt be. As I think @LP08 is alluding to, it’s maybe useful as a quick look on whether a period of time has potential, but that’s it. Especially as we go into winter, our “background” ensemble snow mean through D15 is like 2”.

Email [email protected] for complaints

Speaking of every model run, 0z euro gave us snow D9 and nobody even mentioned it!!?!

Going to the MD football game Saturday. NAM says upper 30s and raining

That’s been on my mind a lot. We got majorly teased last year and then it all turned to total crap for 30 days. Although we did miss a KU by like 100 miles...

As @Bob Chill posted, 18z GFS shows that December 3-4th threat window. Boundary doesn’t get dragged far enough south, but interesting.

Hmmm...that's nice to see that the EPS is coming around to the idea of a -EPO/-NAO pattern in early December. Should be plenty of cold air around and with the trough in the west, that should keep the boundary sort of near us, but on balance to our south, and set up some potential overrunning events. GEFS is certainly advertising a robust STJ to keep the pattern active/wet.

Interesting discrepancy between the new GFS and the GEFS for the weekend storm. GEFS emphatically says it goes under us while GFD cuts it west. Wonder how the new dynamical core is playing here.

In the unlikely event that the GEFS is right about the early December pattern, there would be a legit storm window around the 3-4th. Strong -NAO with a 50-50, and ridging out west.

Storms get trapped under it and help build the block as they break.

Raleigh on board with similar pattern evolution

Last year the GEFS rushed the SSW, but it did eventually come. If the MJO wave makes it to phase 3, that might be a trigger as SSW have happened at that MJO phase in the past often. Even Webb this morning is honking for some major winter weather later in December when the Pac and NAO align. Knowing the GEFS, it probably is rushing the -EPO reestablishment, but you can see the Eps moving that way more slowly.