WxUSAF

12/11: 0.2" Losing to @C.A.P.E. and @H2O, how embarrassing.

I think that perception is mostly a combination of confirmation bias and the fact that even in snowy winters, most of our winter precip falls as rain.

Same. Often seems off on its own. But at least by numbers, a euro-ukie blend solution is probably hard to beat at D5.

What time will the #snowtrain hit my house?

#FreeTrace

I love these shutout patterns where we’re tracking snow threats in the short, medium, and long range at the same time.

I do hope McSorley gets in sometime the next few weeks. And I’ll happily trade next week’s storm for the pre-Xmas HECS.

That’s good to hear at least. You’d think that 50-50 and NAO should support enough confluence aloft to hold some cold air around initially. But we want that TPV to stay away.

It just shows we have something to have worthless discussion about! Think of the worthless discussion we'd be having if it was 60 every day!

Reading elsewhere, apparently EPS shows this with a fair number looking like the GFS. But that^ NAO and 50-50 do look good.

If I had to wager, the big wildcard for next week is that TPV location. Sure, subtleties of where the 50-50, cyclonic wave-breaking forced -NAO, and shortwave positioning will matter, but I think that TPV location is the most likely make or break piece on the chessboard. Move it too far south and if a piece of it phases in, that would tend to pull everything to the NW. I suppose if more of it ends up in the 50-50 low or over Hudson Bay that could even produce a suppressed scenario (although I'd put that at least likely). We want it to stay out of the way up there in Nunavut.

It’s not just sleet. It gives freezing rain like a 20:1 ratio.

GFS has been doing these epic D10 arctic highs + southern Plains ice destruction a few times already. Maybe it eventually actually happens?

Op run at range, yaddayaddayadda, but GFS says our torch period next week is full of arctic air.

Traveling today so haven’t been able to look at much, but GEFS was tanking the AO. How does the ao look on the eps?

You and Ji are the same person, right?

Time to shovel

So far only a flurry in Buffalo, but I’m pulling the snowblower out.

Lol, just as the pole and Atlantic look to shift better, the Pac wants to take a crap. I’m still skeptical until it happens since this has been advertised a few times in the last 6 weeks only to either not happen or be very transient.

You’re in it

Specific thread for Wednesday before or after 12z? We’re inside 3 days now.

18z euro is quite good apparently and snowing at the end of the run

Wow. Cowan is just carrying the team. What a comeback.

HH delivers again on the Wednesday snow. Well, dusting-2" at least.

Yup, this is not a pattern for long track snow threats, but is one that could produce. Active pattern with cold air around. That said...if the ao does flip next week and the NAO starts moving as well...