WxUSAF

Looks like max stripe is between RIC and DC.

I think you’re good dude. I think snow max is going to fall between north side of 495 and like Philly. Max precip maybe somewhere like Fredericksburg .

Yeah I'd expect the overnight shift tonight to issue them for most if not all LWX area and probably PHL too

GFS is at least a modest hit next weekend.

ALEET ALEET @stormtracker report to the GFS PBP room ALEET ALEET

My wag at GFS sounding analysis for immediate 495 area is that 12z Monday is probably snow with heavy rates and a tiny layer at freezing more or less. 18z is probably sleet with lighter rates and a wider warm layer. Reminder that as we get closer, NAM and Euro profiles will be more accurate for assessing p-types. p.s.: we all should be rooting HARD for that ULL/CCB snow area to verify/intensify/biggify. Soundings for that are gorgeous. That is some 12-15:1 champagne powder on the GFS.

I should start charging for all the free wx advice I give friends and acquaintances with businesses and school system connections

Icon basically back to 12z yesterday's solution in terms of snow amounts. Slightly later arrival is consistent across all guidance.

HoCo closing early. Thank goodness my overworked kids get a break after 1.5 days of schooling!

Reminder just in case anyone forgot that nam bias is too wet (12k especially) and too amped. When NAM’s track agrees closely with the global guidance (18z tomorrow?), then using it for thermals/mixing/banding is the proper value-added use.

Anyone who gets a squall is going to see temps drop very quickly.

I think @psuhoffmanis probably doing the “guy peaking out from behind the tree rubbing his hands” gif thing once he sees the overnight runs. I think you’re good. If the max ends up along the VA/NC border, then that’s probably too far.

I’m leaving some of my outdoor Xmas decorations up specifically because I want to see them in the snow

Yesterday I was thinking that the “real” north trend probably wouldn’t show up until the storm is really forming over the plains and convection, etc. is giving it that strong diabatic heat release. So then the guidance would start to “see” the strength of the WAA and shift things a bit north. So even though I figured the GFS was out to lunch, it moving north all day yesterday already did make me a little nervous. Put those two north shifts together and it really could be a congrats NYC thing. With 60-72 hours to go until snow starts and the system not yet really developed, I’m quite happy to be on the north side of the modeled jackpot zone. I would still expect a modest shift north on guidance tomorrow-ish.

None of the darker blobs are ever over my yard

That is really looking like a nice end scenario in the last 24 hours. Hope that continues to juice up.

Gfs has been moving more southern stream energy out each run the last 24-36 hours. Euro still mostly burying it.

So dang close to an absolute monster

I know it’s useless, but I’d appreciate if everyone preemptively promised not to jump when tomorrow’s 12z 12k NAM at 84 hours shows the storm in Detroit. Thanks much!

This is a good question for @dtk or @high risk

Wow, WWA for me too. I'm skeptical I see anything more than a quick dusting. As for schools, tomorrow is giving "all after school activities are cancelled" and then it snows with nothing accumulating on the road for 10 minutes around 530pm.

I believe a few snowflakes are falling

Guidance being so good at identifying storm windows like 15+ days out is a serious blessing and a curse. Just wait for the King to come in and drive this bastard to Buffalo.

This is something I was noticing over the last 24 hours and 12z runs so far really demonstrate it. The slightly northward shifted solutions are also much wetter generally. This goes hand-in-hand with a stronger shortwave and/or less confluence allowing more vigorous moisture transport. So with the tracks that put RIC-Baltimore on the edge of ever flipping p-types also have greater totals. As long as it doesn't get much stronger/norther from these types of solutions, this is probably a trade most of us (north of RIC or Fredericksburg) would be willing to make since both that front end thump is more intense and there's a more coherent CCB snow shield on the back side Monday.

In the red! #blessed