WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Probably should sharpen your knives then
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So hawt. Suffering through some rain and sleet is worth it for that deform deathband. Wind driven powder. I'd wager there are going to be some exciting EPS members.
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Yeah, but it's a lot closer than 0z. Takes the 850 low right overhead. Definitely less OH valley signature this run. I'd actually wager it would have stayed all snow at DC this run except the surface low track is just onshore in VA.
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Snowing at 126... Heavy snow in I-81 corridor
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I don't hate it so far, that's for sure
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Strong and warm. High pressure out west definitely jumped west at 78hrs, which is nice to see.
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Yeah, I hear you. That evening band was pretty strange. Developed in the NoVA burbs and slowly moved east. I remember watching it on my phone and thinking it wouldn't make it to MBY. Then it arrived and just dumped pure fluff dendrites for a few hours. A 6"+ difference between BWI and me is pretty weird, so that shows how close I was to the edge.
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The entire rest of the GFS run had potential. But bird in hand and all.
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Drinking is in all the stages.
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We go through the stages of grief until by Tuesday we convince ourselves that 0.2" of slush that gets washed away is all we really ever expected and wanted.
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I had over 11". That evening band stopped just a few miles east of me.
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Think that's a fairly big adjustment on the crazy uncle?
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Jan 2019 verified WSW for a good chunk of the area
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GFS gets snow in at like 118hrs. That's Day 4 sucka.
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Euro coming in to join the party!
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NSFW
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???? Looking good to me
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GGEM incoming
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Yup, all part of the same process. We don't want the HP outrunning the low. Want the HP on top of the LP like a hat. Maybe a bit ahead of the LP.
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GFS evolution is just textbook for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm. Gorgeous. Look at how it's trended with the cold push out WEST over the Plains. Follow the 522 or 528 height lines in this gif. That push keeps the primary low from amplifying to our west. It can't get north, so it stays weak until it transfers energy to the coast. THIS IS WHAT WE WANT. This is nearly as important as having cold air in place east of the mountains.
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Every model run is basically this
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Good to hear! Are they going to output what SLR they're calculating as well as the accumulation? That way we weenies will just adjust upward
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I've always found those to be low, even in marginal situations, but they're going to be closer than those 10:1 wxbell maps! Everyone has to keep normal Mid-Atlantic marginal event rules in mind here. Elevation STRONGLY favored. Rural N/W areas favored. White rain likely for a time, even in places where accumulation happens. That it might touch 60F Sunday doesn't matter much.
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I'm pretty sure WxBell assumes 850mb temp below 0C = snow In this very marginal situation, that's going to give a really bad impression.
