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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    75N is a doomsday scenario. 3 wrecks involving semi trucks at mm133 including one overturned. Officers at the scene said it was so slick they couldn't get to one of them.
  2. John1122
    Strange OBS from Tys and Tri.
  3. John1122
    Back to sleet. Sleet when it's heavier, drizzle/freezing rain when it lightens up.
  4. John1122
    Now freezing rain here.
  5. John1122
    Still switching between snow and sleet. No freezing rain so far.
  6. John1122
    Temp has fallen to 29 with precip. I assume wetbulbing is happening.
  7. John1122
    I'm hoping for upslope tomorrow as the main snow producer. The 3k NAM is spitting out about 2 inches of that here with 5+ over Cross Mountain. The freezing rain/sleet part looks qpf starved with less than .10 per MRX. MRX did note the warm nose won't reach SWVa at all.
  8. John1122
    Switched over to sleet with an occasional flake. Temp is 31.
  9. John1122
    Snow just started here.
  10. John1122
    His chart was for North Carolina and while we can score in different ways and often do, most of the time we're all cold at the same time and the storm track that lends itself to NC snow events most is miller A storms. It was I believe an 8 percent chance in 7/8, 5 in 1, 3 in 2 during El Nino. It would take a lot of research to do it here, if had a way to get historical MJO phases I'd try to see how we stacked up. C.O.D is king. It's a 12 percent probability in Nino years. In nino Feb 2015 we were 8 to 7 to C.O.D when big winter hit in the second half of Feb.
  11. John1122
    I've made it to 27 degrees. I noticed the Crossville airport was at 33 but has fallen to 30. Dewpoints are low, in the 10s, so some wetbulbing will occur.
  12. John1122
    He actually made the statement that the MJO heading for 7/8 in February was one of the reasons for hope in the long range. It appears that 2 may be the worst phase for winter storms in El Nino years.
  13. John1122
    It was in an El Nino, phase 7/8 were the most likely to produce snow in NC of any phase but the c.o.d was best.
  14. John1122
    I believe Eric Webb found that southeast snow events in February were more frequent in Phase 7 of the MJO than some of the more traditionally wintery phases. That would imply that it was cold here during Phase 7 in February.
  15. John1122
    If this happens as a drizzle/ight rain scenario it's the worst way to get freezing rain for travel. If it rains hard it builds up on raised surfaces but the way roads are designed to shed water, the water starts running and it's harder to freeze. But light rain that slowly builds, that's just the worst.
  16. John1122
    Man, the HRRR spits out ice storm warning criteria ice here. Exactly what I don't need with temps near 0 returning.
  17. John1122
    The GFS from 00z 1-16-24 had me at -8 and I ended up at -8. It had Newcomb, west of me at -6 and they ended up at -7. It had Oneida at -7 and they ended up at -9. It had Tazewell at -14 and they ended up at -12. Our posters in the area also seemed to have recorded -8 to -10. Unfortunately TYS is not actually in Knoxville or Knox County, and it's a notorious heat island, I believe they didn't get quite as much snow as areas very close by to the N and NW.
  18. John1122
    The Canadian crept south with the snow. The 3 inch line crept into NE Campbell County that run. The one inch line is down across Knox and Davidson in Middle Tn. Almost looks like the snow footprint models were putting out a few days ago.
  19. John1122
    I've just blew through my predicted low. My zone forecast says 15, my point forecast says 13. It's down to 9 degrees already.
  20. John1122
    The RGEM is good with northern stream stuff. Hope that's the case here.
  21. John1122
    2014 we got below 0 cold in early January then a two week warm up and got frigid again in late January. So it was a double cold shot El Nino year.
  22. John1122
    I've made it to 22 but not sure I'll get much higher. The sun sets here pretty soon.
  23. John1122
    Our schools have closed until Monday already.
  24. John1122
    To me it looks like MJO forecasts are getting more favorable. Some still try to do the loop in 6, but others are pushing it to 7-8 faster. One of them stalls it in 7. A few days ago the Euro mean was looping it in 6, that's gone now and it pushes across 7 and 8.
  25. John1122
    I got down to -8 this morning. Close to the -10 the GFS had for me. Way colder than the 1 the NAM had. Currently at 15 and will probably get to the 26-28 range today.
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