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John1122

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  1. John1122
    After Daniel Boone mentioned August 1976, I went back and looked over the whole month. We had 11 mornings in the 40s that month, including several days in the mid-40s in early August. That is insanely cold for August.
  2. John1122
    It's poured the last few days here. Just had a big storm roll through, the second in the last hour or two.
  3. John1122
    Just looked. We had 47, 47, 45, and 46 August 18th-21st. Another cold front hit to close the month and we were 42 on the 31st.
  4. John1122
    Some forecasts have me at 51 degrees on Wednesday morning. That would have to be close to a record.
  5. John1122
    Just had an unexpected heavy soaker roll across. I've noticed since last winter, radars are a few miles off here and the placement seems to vary by source. The rain I just got was displayed on three different radars as passing east of me.
  6. John1122
    It's been so wet here that even after bright sun all day today, my grass is still sopping wet.
  7. John1122
    The daily downpours have started here. Not huge showers but heavy rain while it's falling. Looks like they are going to pivot around the upper low for a few more hours. Next week we will be in the sinking air area of the tropical system if the gfs is to be believed and should probably stay dry.
  8. John1122
    Rained several more times again this evening it appears. Went to Turkey Creek to a movie and it was mostly dry south of Clinton, there and back. Soaked and storming up here going down and standing water still on the road when I got back, as rain looks to have departed a few minutes before I got back in town.
  9. John1122
    Another round of heavy rain and storms rolling through now. We may have some more hot flare ups but at least they won't be able to build off drought conditions imby. I'm surprised this much drought still exists. Especially down towards Chattanooga, that's been drenched the last 10 days. Looking, the airport must have gotten dodged. Dwagner reports around 10 inches of rain in his back yard. The airport barely got over 3 inches down there and I assume that's what the drought monitor is based on.
  10. John1122
    I feel like Forrest Gump in Vietnam with these storms. Very very heavy rain and windy right now. I'm not sure how many days in a row this is now. Seems like it's stormed like 13 of the last 15 days.
  11. John1122
    Morning rain again today. Even in the afternoon sunshine water puddles are standing. It's steamy but only 84 degrees.
  12. John1122
    From the storm this evening that was warned over Eastern Campbell County. I assume it's a scud cloud.
  13. John1122
    Just had my second set of storms today. There's definitely no more drought here.
  14. John1122
    My power just came back on. Trees down everywhere with that complex that hit around 4:30 to 5:30. Roads were blocked all over the county and powerlines were down with them. There were 14,000 meters out at one point. With the population here, 14,000 is almost every meter that LaFollette utilities serves here.
  15. John1122
    The size of the rain drops in these storms is incredible. They are just huge and it just floods down as they roll across. Another complex looks to arrive here around 5pm.
  16. John1122
    It's been pouring here for the last hour and a half. It's rare to see 70+ percent rain chances for 10 days in a row. But we're close to it.
  17. John1122
    92-93 was ENSO neutral. But summer of 1993 was hot. I remember there was a 20+ day 90+ streak in Knoxville. Jan 94 had an as cold or colder version of what we experienced in January this year. It was one of those epic cold fronts that dropped temps 30 or so degrees in a few hours. Knoxville got heavy freezing rain, with a couple inches of snow on top of it that got set like concrete by late afternoon because the temps fell from low 30s to single digits in a few hours. Well below zero cold followed, around -15 here with highs in the single digits over around 6 or 7 inches of snow cover. We didn't get the freezing rain that areas south of here got. 94-95 was a moderate El Nino, it transitioned to a moderate La Nina in 95-96. '95 has been similar to this summer here. Hot start, very dry. It flipped wet and cooler. 94-95 was also a rising QBO. It peaked in June 1995 and was positive but falling through the end of 1995. Sept-Dec 1995 were all BN. We had evening snow showers one day imby in mid-October. Very different pattern in the upper Midwest that year though. They set heat records. Some places in Wisconsin approached 110 in July 1995.
  18. John1122
    Picked up over an inch of rain today and my third heavy rain/thunder event of the day is underway. This pattern looks to last 5 or 6 more days at least. Incredible shift in pattern from the first 40 or so days of summer. The Nino to Nina 1995 patten also abruptly shifted from extended hot and dry to extended rainy and cooler. It started later and ended later than this one, though.
  19. John1122
    Absolutely epic rainer here. .73 inches in 45 minutes. Looks like another wave to come unless it falters.
  20. John1122
    Doing some reading today, the QBO westerly, aka positive, may be to our benefit due to La Nina. During neutral or La Nina, the QBO being negative actually tends to hurt our winter chances. Apparently during La Nina the QBO is much more likely to affect polar regions. During El Nino the QBO is more likely to affect the tropics. This study days that QBOW is more likely to produce cold air for the mid-lat continents and above average snowfall. It says that the effect is magnified during La Nina. This is from a paper I was reading. "During QBO W (G1, Fig. 3, second column) a 100 hPa ridge is amplified over the Bering Sea, near the base of the climatological Aleutian High44, MSLP is higher over the Arctic, and the midlatitude continents are colder and snowier. During QBO E (G2, Fig. 3, third column) there is a somewhat different wave two anomaly pattern, with low 100 hPa heights over the Bering Sea, reduced MSLP over the Arctic, and the midlatitude continents are warmer and less snowy. After confirming a consistent result with our previous study 26 that the H-T mechanism is amplified during the La Niña period, the present study investigates the QBO teleconnection with the boreal winter surface climate of NH mid and high latitudes regions in the presence and absence of El Niño and La Niña effects. A significant modulation of the climate dynamics governing surface anomalies is observed in the zonal mean and zonally asymmetric quantities for a specific QBO phase at the centroid angle of 180° for neutral ENSO period only (– 0.4 K <Niño 3.4 index <– 0.4 K). This specific QBO phase group G1 corresponds to maximum westerly wind at 70 hPa (QBO W) and simultaneously opposite easterly maximum at 20 hPa, whereas the G2 group (QBO E) has the opposite signs. The QBO modulations of surface temperature and snow depth in Eurasia and North America illustrates a systematic association with MSLP in the Arctic region. High-pressure conditions over the polar region induce colder temperatures over the midlatitude continents and vice-versa. It is observed that ENSO neutral and QBO W favors a high value of MSLP (>6 hPa) over the polar region (>50°N), and cold conditions (~2–4 K) with high snow depth over Eurasia and North America, and the opposite effects during QBO E. A comparison of the anomaly patterns for QBO W and QBO E shows that the response is fairly linear, with marginally stronger amplitude for QBO W. During QBO W, anticyclonic anomalies are found at 100 hPa over the Bering Sea and the high North Atlantic. This favors higher arctic MSLP, especially in the North Atlantic. The pattern of colder surface temperatures extends farther into the midlatitudes, with enhanced snowfall farther south than normal, favoring a low-index NAM23 and negative AO31. During QBO E, the Aleutian High and the trough over eastern North America at 100 hPa are reduced in amplitude such that the polar vortex is more zonally symmetric, with a region of lower MSLP over the pole. Such a high index NAM/AO flow confines polar air to higher latitudes, giving a warm anomaly across Eurasia and North America and reduced snow depth."
  21. John1122
    Had about an hour and fifteen minutes of moderate rain there around 1 to 2:15. No thunder or anything in it. Picked up another .26 inches. Looks like some more in the pipeline, looked like MRX had Tri area with some higher chances. Pretty much the entire forum area should get in on it over the next several days.
  22. John1122
    I've gotten three rounds and over an inch of rain. The last storm packed a punch and my power is out.
  23. John1122
    Looking at the QBO readings, it's rising currently and on average it rises for 7 months then begins falling. It should begin falling in Jan or February. From what I read a few years ago, the actual reading didn't matter regarding enhanced blocking, the direction of the QBO is what mattered. If the reading was negative but rising, it meant less blocking. If it was positive but falling, it meant blocking was more likely.
  24. John1122
    It's crazy that probably 80 miles as the crow files means 15 inches or so difference in average yearly rainfall totals.
  25. John1122
    Just had another soaker. The storms aren't large in area but they absolutely flood down rain. They are odd in that the thunder is frequent as they approach, then it rains very hard with virtually no thunder, then once they pass you hear the thunder again. The Euro ens is advertising around 200 percent of normal rain across the forum area the next two weeks. We'll see if it comes to pass but I'm definitely off to a good start imby.
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