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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Pretty big NW jog from the Canadian there. 1.5 inches around Nashville, rising to 3-6 inches in the eastern forum areas. That's just from the second wave on Tuesday.
  2. John1122
    The Canadian has snow over all of East Tennessee with pt 2 as well. I wonder if it's handling of a stronger system Sunday is what's flavoring how Tuesday unfolds.
  3. John1122
    The Canadian is rock solid in its depiction of Sat night/Sunday once again. It may be wrong, but other models are folding towards it and the RGEM.
  4. John1122
    Currently sitting at 31. The Euro has hinted that frozen precip would fall at the start of this event. I'm sure the temps will shoot up later.
  5. John1122
    MRX just put this out.
  6. John1122
    It should snow most of the night Sunday if there's any moisture at all around still. It will fall from lower levels as the DGZ will be down to probably 3000-4000 feet. Monday morning at 1am the 850 RH is depicted between 85 percent and 100 percent from the Plateau east. 850s are -16c to -19c. (DGZ is -12c to -19c if I recall correctly) the 925 is -14c to around -10c with the colder 925s on the Plateau and the -10s to the east. 925 rh is 80-85 percent. So the snow growth zone will be as low as 925 or about 2500 feet. I suspect there will be small flake pixie dust falling even during the time the models show the precip as over, as it wrings out the lingering lower level moisture in the DGZ. Looking at my sounding on the GFS, it shows me at 8f at 1am Monday, and the green RH line and red temp line are touching at 850. That's why there's usually at least a trace of snow with big Arctic outbreaks. It happened during the Christmas 2022 cold.
  7. John1122
    It was kinda bad with the last event. Way too much QPF imby and I think way too warm down towards Chattanooga.
  8. John1122
    After looking, and it's still the 00z run because it's always behind everyone else, the GFS Graphicast is not far off the Canadian. We get generally .1 to .15 qpf as frozen on it. The 06Z Euro AI is very close to the Graphicast with QPF for Sunday.
  9. John1122
    I see the big system that was set for late week just went poof on the GFS. It's folding to the Canadian on the Tuesday system and now on that system as well. Hopefully everything folds to the Canadian on the Sunday system, but so far none are.
  10. John1122
    RGEM/Canadian for Sunday, Canadian Tuesday, (though the deep south would cease to function for a week or two) and the GFS later in the week. That's not too much to ask for.
  11. John1122
    I will say that last night's euro was equally ludicrous for a similar reason. It showed nearly 7 inches of snow in Tallahassee. That would obliterate all known Florida snow records and almost triple their record snowfall. It's the equivalent of a model dropping 72 inches across our area as far as a climatological outlier.
  12. John1122
    I saw it. Whenever models show record smashing events I usually discount them. I hate to because it's our best hope. It's a phaser with an explosive precip field. The other models don't phase but also don't seem to have a big enough qpf field given the jet dynamics.
  13. John1122
    It's 3rd and 18 and we're on our own 31-yard-line. Hopefully we can pull a miracle. If we don't make it on third, we could still go for it on 4th but it looks like a punting situation right now.
  14. John1122
    May as well do an Arctic Blast thread to cover the week of cold and hits or misses on snow imo. We at least are pretty sure it's going to be cold.
  15. John1122
    The early week storm is creeping north again on the gfs and euro. Not sure if it'll make it here. The gfs did try to have at least some flurries reach the area Tuesday.
  16. John1122
    The GFS has worked back to a huge snow event for the Thursday system. Maybe the SE trend is a thing this year.
  17. John1122
    Pure December 1983 on the Euro/GFS December '83, 25 Degrees November 30th, we warm to the 50s with 2 inches of rain the first three days of Dec, getting up to the 60s before crashing into the 20s with a trace of snow on the 7th. After a few days BN we shoot up AN and rain. we are 45 with 1/2 inch of rain, 2 days later, 28 with a trace of snow. A week later it's 24, we get a trace of snow, but it warms to 49 and rains .85 inches, ends with a trace of snow. We go all the way down to -8 by Christmas eve and Christmas morning with about 1/2 inch of snow. It warms up to 33 by December 27th after a trace of front end snow, it rains 1.4 inches. We finish off with another trace of snow as it ends. We have a couple of days of low 20s and low single digit lows with a trace of snow. We finished the month -6 with over 6 inches of rain and around 1 total inch of snow from snow even with pipe bursting cold. We are looking at rain/cold/rain/cold/rain on the Euro to close the month.
  18. John1122
    The late week cutter came back a little bit. It's suppressed deep into the gulf on the Canadian.
  19. John1122
    The Canadian was 2-6 inches from the Western Plateau, west on the midweek system. 4-6 inches from the two for most folks from Nashville east. 6-10 in some areas in the East part of the forum.
  20. John1122
    I'm actually talking about the Sat-Sun system. West and Middle Tennessee get 1-3 inches on the Canadian and the RGEM was close. The GFS sticks more to the N areas. E Kentucky gets 6 inches on the RGEM.
  21. John1122
    Canadian still on board as well. GFS actually leaned towards the Canadian on this first system.
  22. John1122
    The RGEM keeps giving parts of the area a decent snow event into Sunday. It's probably too aggressive, but the NAM has been pretty bad at all ranges on the actual ground reality of systems in comparison with the RGEM. It whipped the NAM on the ice event. Then when it was drier, it stayed drier on the last event while the NAM was juicy.
  23. John1122
    The 18z Euro was way N/NW but it'll take a miracle to make it this far N. All my eggs are in the Sunday morning basket. The cold shot this week wasn't nearly as severe as initially modeled. But if this one coming is, they usually wring out every bit of moisture in the air.
  24. John1122
    The power of living in a bowl with peaks around you 800-1000 feet high than you. Cold drainage. It's 29.9 degrees outside my house right now. It's in the low 40s a mile or two away, where it's open to the sw wind blowing around out there.
  25. John1122
    This winter may need archived in this thread for all the wrong reasons. It's hard to be better than we have at 500mb for much of December and January if you want snow. Great Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific mostly cooperative. But we've managed some light ice, and one minor to moderate snow event. Historically these looks would have seen much of the forum area well into double digits snow totals and likely saw my area, SE KY, NE TN and SWVa pushing 20-30 inches.
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