EasternLI

$20 on the torch. 

Filthadelphia? Not a fan.

Let's go Giants!!

Just now, Nibor said:

Eagles 2-0 against the Giants this season. 
 

Giants:

It's so weird though. And I've seen this happen on several runs now. With the strat warming, I'm seeing troposphere alterations like simultaneously. That's abnormal isn't it?

We 2001-2002.... 

All of the cold has been firmly planted on the other side of the planet for the most part. Our winters have never been good here when this happens. It gets warmer here now than it used to though because the world is getting warmer. This is just reality. I feel like we need the ssw to come through, with it's associated effects, if we are to crawl out of the basement at this point. That's about all I see that could offer a large scale shake up which we need. With that being said, even if we get one, it still may not matter because there's no guarantee how it might play out. But if we don't, I think we stay locked in the basement and siberia stays locked in the freezer. 

Another stratosphere post since the target timeframe is approaching 10 days now. Dr Butler tweeted yesterday she referenced the nasa GEOS model. Without a doubt, this is who to pay attention to for this. 

So here's the GEOS model from overnight at day 10. Fairly robust run. Be interesting to see what trends or doesn't with this over the next several days. Gefs was a little more enthusiastic about it overnight also. Just starting to come into view on the euro as well. So we observe. 

14 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Can someone explain what this is in simple terms?

It's a giant ridge in the arctic stratosphere, following a ssw. Sell for the time being. 

41 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A reminder about the EPS weeklies. Beyond two weeks, skill disappears. So, temperature or 500 mb patterns shown for weeks 3-6 could be dramatically different from the actual outcomes. So, right now February could start cool but not severely cold. Moderation will then follow. Afterward, it’s uncertain how things will evolve.

Pretty big update upcoming this year on those. Where they will now run separately from the 00z eps. Instead of as an extension, like now. Double the members. Plus run it every day. I'll be interested to see how these do following that. My biggest issue with them has always been because they just extrapolate the 00z eps. That's not going to be the case anymore after this. These sound like very promising changes to me. Looking forward to this.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/173/earth-system-science/next-extended-range-configuration-ifs-cycle-48r1

Just for entertainment value. As bad as those weeklies look, 100% of the members do get at least some snow into NYC at one point or another.

Just taking a peek up into the stratosphere guidance this morning. Just because some may be interested to see some of the real data. Let's check the status. It's already disturbed somewhat from the earlier shots of warming. Here's initial conditions on the euro. 

There's another good shot scheduled up in 6 days. Here's the euro again. Euro is slightly stronger than the GFS with this. 

Another one setting up to follow that one up. Here's the euro again, Gfs has the same general idea as does gefs and eps. 

Here's the 06z gefs, which has 39% of the members achieve a technical ssw. That number fluctuates greatly from run to run, but that's the highest I've seen it so far. So figured I'd mention it. May all be meaningless in the end, of course. We all realize this. Seems interesting enough to keep an eye on it to me though. Something is happening there, may as well watch it. 

I actually thought the eps did a better job squashing the se ridge last night. With a bit less of a western trough late. Regardless, I'm just not thinking very much about beyond day 7 currently with strat activity ramping up in this period. 

Yesterdays 12z eps

Last night's 00z

This really is a pretty reasonable match everywhere with everything on 18z GEFS. We're pulling for the Greenland ridge here. To work with whatever happens with the strat. So get out the lucky rabbit foot, four leaf clover, lucky underwear, plus whatever else you might have. 

48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

This is what I've been trying to communicate about that situation. That is what made it interesting for me. Just having the possibility of something like that. Requires pulling a rabbit out of a hat though lol.

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

 

Literally you in my mind. 

Just hope it doesn't end up like this instead lol

4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m fully willing to sacrifice you to the SPV so it gets disrupted and we have an actual winter. 

I'm still working on it 

Listen to Dr. Butler when she posts about anything ssw related. Ignore most others. She quite literally wrote the book on them. It's a possibility, just as it has been, and continues to be. Nothing more. A legitimate threat if she's even mentioning anything about it. It's also something that requires monitoring over many days worth of trends. Operational models are also worth noting due to more vertical layers then the ensembles from my understanding.

I'm fully willing to sacrifice the remainder of winter so the giants can grab a win in Philly on Saturday 

Just nice to watch the transformation of the Pacific on the euro. Which the day 9 thing could be related to, or perhaps a part of in some way. May that continue in the days ahead for once. 

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I know it's a long range clown map, however would be fitting for a la Nina (cutter/SE slider)

Gfs has been spitting out some record strat warming recently. Here's the 06z. Need to see if this continues until the euro op can start picking it up too. It's within the target timeframe. In addition, the westerly QBO ones are the least predictable on modeling. Gotta keep an eye on things between now and Feb on models. 

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Evidence growing for March to be the “real” winter month here….Looks like the MJO will propagate out into the Pacific come early March, based on the Paul Roundy plots Eric shows, the possible SSW event in early February (takes awhile/weeks with the lag to actually have an effect) couples with the troposphere, cold rebuilds in Canada, SPV weakens greatly, -NAO/-AO, also, possible jet extension and +PNA. The caveats….it will be March, so March “cold”, and March climo, also sun angle and length of day will be working against us, so keep expectations tempered, but I think it ends up being the most wintry (cold/snow) month of 22-23. Will have to re-examine as we get closer. Still very strongly believe February is canonical La Niña/-PNA/SE ridge/flat Aleutian ridge and well above normal temps, well below normal snow
 

This final point of his in that thread is the one condition that I'm most interested in monitoring moving forward. In that if you can set up the Blocking at the same time of a legitimate ssw, that changes the equation of when you can possibly see effects to something much sooner instead. I've mentioned this before either last month or back in November as a potential point of interest this season. I'm still curious to see if we can achieve that. It's not likely by any means currently, but it's very much possible with this state of affairs ahead. So I'm interested to see how this goes and if we can pull that off concurrently.

Keeping an eye on the strat once again. It's heating up for the end of the month again on guidance recently. Gefs are getting pretty toasty now. Eps weeklies have a cluster that pulls it off again on today's edition. 

Go giants!

I've just been watching, waiting for something to break right. It's just not. This year did hold good potential early on. I almost wish it didn't. It's decided to turn into the Ryan Leaf of winters. Very interesting college career and fell flat on it's face once it got to the pros. The GEFS still looks like crap to me. At some point it's put up or shut up, and I'm at that point now.