EasternLI

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

97-98 would've been a really nice winter had it been a few degrees cooler. Lots of favorable tracks but just overwhelmed in warm air. 09-10 did end up a good season despite the 2/6 disaster, and 1/23/16 was set to miss us as well but there was a last minute 75 mile north bump that saved most of us. We never really have a 'gimme' winter here.

Yeah, I'm just having some fun. So very much goes into it. I'm becoming more and more of a believer that the PDO plays a tremendous role too. The more I read about that in updated research. Same idea with the gradients. I feel like this was a major factor in 95-96 TBH. La nina, but positive PDO that year. I think that helped us out. Quite rare to see that with la nina. 

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

strong el ninos are good for us because we get our biggest snowstorms in them

 

Can be, have to be careful though 

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

if we get too strong of Nino, doesn’t that risk a 15-16 debacle?

historically, I feel like snow and cold. strong Niños are not a good thing for New York City.

And that's true also. That's because they set up too much of a gradient. Same thing with strong la ninas. It's usually too overwhelming. Where it's positioned matters too. These circulations alter the jet stream. It's all such a fine balance. That's without even adding anything else into that equation lol. And there's a lot. But this is one of our most important factors for sure. Since it happens in the Pacific.

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it needs to be on the level of 02-03 or 09-10, weak el ninos wont do it for us anymore

 

Right. That's one way to do it. The other way is to see some cooling of that warm pool. And that's still possible at times as well, because there's still going to be at least some variation with it. Like there is with enso. That feature has the ability to take control of global weather patterns though. Since it's intrinsically linked with enso. So I personally have some grave concerns about that feature continuing to warm in the future. 

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is happening ALL SEASON.

The models replace a cold high pressure with a Low pressure NW of us. This raises our temps of course. I can only imagine this is due to northern stream la Nina dominance? If the northern stream is dominant, cutters will pump up the SE ridge.

Last run

 

This run

So 1918 seems to be another very interesting case actually. If others are interested, like I was. I only recently stumbled upon the NOAA enso reconstruction dataset. So I've been browsing. That timeframe sticks out. 

1918 would have been part of the strongest la nina event of all time, according to that data. Going back to 1300 (!). Also, a 3 year event in the 3rd year. Which produced the following 500mb that January. Pretty wild. Three consecutive el ninos followed this.

1916	-0.907
1917	-3.724
1918	-2.315

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The other possibility is that the record breaking SE Ridge since 2015 is being forced by climate change. So it could turn out to be a new climate change teleconnection. Record Gulf Stream warmth combined with record MJO 4-6 warm pool in the WPAC.

 

I think it's everything together. I think that Pacific warm pool is a big deal though. I fear that thing. I strongly believe it's playing a role with that as it likes to drive a -PNA typically. So that's a logical response to that. But I also think la nina is amplifying that response to an extent since then. Because we seem to be in a la nina like cycle since then as well. By increasing the gradient next to that warm pool. Amplifying it's effectiveness. We did have the weak el nino in 18-19. However the gradient was non existent to the west of that because of that warm pool. So I think this is why that one acted atypical and more enso neutral like. No contrast. Same sort of situation for 19-20. This makes me very skeptical of the next el nino as well though. We'll need to see some gradients. Otherwise I think it's going to be useless again. 

NYC next week 

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The reason I keep saying that CC is a plus on top of an already crappy pattern is because this winter’s pattern would suck no matter what year. It’s been a rampaging Pacific along with the steep SE Ridge. “Another year” would be +7 or 8 January not +10 but it’s been constantly cold in the northern Plains and NW for several winters. Seattle has more snow than Boston this winter. Part of this to me is the rubber band snapping back and we can’t bank on blockbuster winters like we had last decade. Where CC might really contribute though is reinforcing certain patterns like these where the warm Atlantic reinforces the SE Ridge and warm western Pacific reinforces a Nina atmospheric state. More research needs to be done on that. In the summer it seems to reinforce our increasing humidity on a southerly flow vs more hot 95+ degree days on a westerly wind. The ridge becoming steeper causes the Bermuda High to move north and it becomes more Florida like here while the worst of the heat shoots over into New England. 

Yes, well said. Same page. 

Root of that is the Hadley cell expanding too. Causing those things IMO. 

I don't see why 2 things can't be true together. This pattern is utterly disastrous, true. The planet is getting warmer, true. So here we are. I don't think it's a question of one versus another. It was only a matter of time before these 2 factors converged to produce a snowless season. Maybe it's this one. TBD

What an amazingly putrid Pacific this January has been too. You'd be hard pressed to draw it up much worse than this. Looks a little bit like the 1933 January Pacific did actually,  but with a much much flatter Pacific Ridge this year. Wildly bad. Feel free to fade away la nina. 

I have a couple 2015 pics somewhere. Can't find them at the moment. However I came across one from January 2018. There's a tree directly in front of me, and you can barely see it lol.

That was slightly intriguing from 12z. I thought the gfs was on drugs trying to pull up some blocking to Greenland later in the run. Bit eyebrow raising to see the euro trying to do that too at the end though. So this is a little bit different now from the gfs. That was the first run trying to push down some of the weakening winds from upstairs into the troposphere. Not sure if the euro is trying that too. Curious to see if that keeps showing up now though. 

29 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Winter 2023

How it started:

How it's going:

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Western ridge axis is way too far west and no blocking. To me this just means that behind the cutters it gets colder which if it's possible I hate even more because in the winter there's nothing worse than warm cutter to cold/dry. Maybe this can promote some front end snow going into one of the cutters. 

Yup, that's probably exactly what we're looking at too. Just kick us while we're down. 

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs basically kicked the can again….0.0 here we come 

Yeah, I'm not seeing much come out of this either. Looks like cutter cold front then ridge on this. 

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe because La Nina is really about a warmer west pac?

They seem so destructive I would be perfectly fine with climate engineering that would blunt or at least make la ninas much less frequent.

 

Oh yeah, it's absolutely about that.  That goes back to the gradients conversation too. Without that, it's not going be very effective. That warm pool is going to be a real problem too I think. As it keeps getting warmer. I forsee trouble stemming from that thing, increasingly. I'm not just talking snow either. 

Oh nice! I got 2 feet in that. 

Oh crap, read the room. 

*runs away*

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder why we don't have multi year el ninos, at least triple year el ninos are unheardof in the modern record

 

There's a reason for that. It's complicated. At least as far as it's understood. This stuff is constantly being studied. It's interesting though, would be cool to check out a much longer record.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like la nina is the normal base state of the Pacific Ocean

 

Well, from the research I've read. It cycles. On many different timescales too. So you can have a la nina cycle like that where it's more heavily biased la nina. But that alternates too. Some periods are an El nino cycle instead where it's biased in that direction. There's 10 year cycles, 100 year cycles, plus others have been discussed. You still get both types during either cycle. That one is a stark example though. I just wonder how these differences play into how the atmosphere responds. I'm sure it makes at least some difference somehow. I also wonder if you could get some absolute monster events when these cycles line up just right. 

That's a curious case, 1972-73. Strong el nino in the midst of a ocean of la ninas. 

70-71, 71-72

73-74, 74-75, 75-76

All La Nina. A couple strong ones too. 

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Was 1933 the same as that was a torch too. 

Also in the above, is that a south based NAO linking with the SE ridge?

1933 looks very similar in the Pacific. To me, these just look like a huge SE ridge more than anything. I see what you're saying about the first one though.