EasternLI

MJO is really booking it this year. I've read WQBO can speed it up too, so that's a little interesting. But man this thing is really flying. I feel like all that's going to do is constructively interfere with this el nino more often. Seems like this would just encourage the nino to take center stage even more so. Not that it needs that..

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

PDO changes afoot?

Well, maybe there are... then again maybe there aren't lol, but if we can get something like the 12z AIFS-ENS below. It would probably keep going the right direction. Start seeing this kind of GOA low on a regular basis would do wonders for the eastern portion of it. Do that plus get some tropical cyclones to take a bite out of that north Pacific warmth that has pooled there from the persistent ridging in that area. Combined, that would go a long way towards transforming that index. As a side note, that's part of the reason I would like to see a couple recurving typhoons through that region. Some guidance is hinting at maybe there finally being some potential for that too as we close out the month. I'm keeping an eye on that. Could have a shot there for one.

Jamstec updated for August. 

I've learned a great deal about the MJO over the years. Because I view it as an important phenomenon but also didn't like relying on others for real updates. I wanted to know more than what the simple phase space diagrams can offer. This is a challenging year to be trying to follow the MJO. Need to be able to dig into it a little deeper to really see what's going on with it. Or to even see it at all. Like I mentioned earlier in the thread, the RMM charts can be misleading sometimes. This year is one of those times. The following from the CPC global tropics discussion also points that out, updated yesterday:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/index.php

"The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has continued a pattern of constructive and destructive interference with the El Nino low-frequency base state over the past few months as the El Nino signal has strengthened. Over the past week, the RMM-based index showed the MJO intensifying as it moved through the Maritime Continent and into the Western Pacific (Phase 6) where it once again began to constructively interfere with El Nino. The MJO signal has now reached a stronger amplitude than the last time it emerged in Phase 6, back in late June when the El Nino signal was superimposed on the enhanced phase of the MJO. Upper-level velocity potential anomalies over the past week show a weak MJO signal farther west moving through the Indian Ocean, suggesting that the strong El Nino background state may be distorting the position of the MJO in RMM-space.

With this ongoing constructive interference with the El Nino base state, RMM-based forecasts keep the MJO signal over the Western Pacific (Phase 6) for the next two weeks. Although consistent with phasing, models are split on the amplitude of the signal, with the ECMWF and CFS predicting a robust MJO over the next week and the GEFS maintaining a weaker signal. During Weeks 2 and 3, the GEFS begins to amplify the signal and maintains a strong MJO, while the ECMWF shows a weakening signal moving into the unit circle. By the end of week-3, the models agree on the signal moving into Phase 7. Over the next four weeks, the upper-level velocity potential anomalies show a stationary wave-1 pattern with the enhanced divergence envelope remaining over the Eastern Pacific. However, eastward propagation of the MJO signal can be seen in the wave filtering, showing the signal propagating from the Indian Ocean into the far Eastern Pacific."

Looks like this would be an off the scale WWB over the next couple of days according to the 12z GEFS. Has another big one later in the month too. 

Top of the scale WWB on the 00z EPS. 

Another curious detail about this year. Decided to look at the AO data for those other strong and super nino's. In the Jun-Jul period it looks like they all average negative for that period. All of them. This year it was positive. Not sure what that ultimately means but thought it was interesting. 

Yeah, will be fascinating to see how the north Pacific responds through this event. Given the deep -PDO state of the atmosphere it is encountering. El nino is certainly ramping up. AAM about to take another step up from the upcoming MJO cycling and associated WWB. Getting impressive too with a forecast mean remaining above 3 SD. If we look at the world view. We can see the SH jet has been, and is forecast to continue to be very impressive. Along with El nino conditions really getting comfortable in the tropics now as of late. A little bit of El nino's influence appears to be trickling into the NH now as well. The forecast has that continuing also and increasingly so as we get towards the tail end of the month. So envision a slow take over, if you will. As we go through the fall. That's my guess. Will be interesting to see if that's how it plays out. I think that makes some sense given the underlying resistance in the Pacific. I personally doubt that resistance will ultimately be too much for this event. Not one of this magnitude, this one's a behemoth. But that is a battle worth watching in the north Pacific for sure. Would still love to see a recurving typhoon or 2 as well but there's time for that.

Granted this is from the July run. But the Jamstec wasn't far off from a CFS or Cansips situation either. Will be interesting to see when it updates. Although, I'm on the same page with bluewave on these seasonal model runs. They're geared towards enso more than anything else. That's where they hold the most skill. So you often see straight enso composites from them the further you go out in time and they can miss things in the mid latitudes. They're simply not tuned for that. Interesting to see some of these solutions regardless.

I mean, the MJO is currently crossing the MC. Yet, suppression is remaining firmly in place through that. It's not everyday that happens. It's still slated to interact with the Nino right after mid month. Another big WWB is likely inbound.

Man this El Nino is getting really impressive already. VP 200 charts are in beast mode. These are 30 day means! Obs! Just blows 2023 out of the water. Starting to look more impressive vs 2015 even TBH. At least as far as compared to this same time period. Action centers even looking like pure textbook Nino too. Which is pretty cool to see on a chart. This thing is a powerhouse, no question. MC is even shut down.

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Medium to long range in every model are trying really hard to disrupt the consistent ridging episodes near Japan and east of there. Let's see how things shape up mid to late month.

You know what, yeah. I've been interested in mid month for something like that for a bit. Maybe that's still on track. I didn't even realize it at the time either, but all the models do have this wave train too. Will certainly be interesting to follow. 

Maybe the NH is starting to come around slowly. If we use the JMA composite for warm enso in August. We see this wave train from the Pacific through NA. Then looking over the AIFS-ensembles 12z run, here is a 5 day mean. There is a wave train visible in the Pacific through NA similar to the one shown on the composite.

6 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yes. -PDO is not the cause, it’s an effect of the pattern. 

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I think there's been some conflation between the SST PDO pattern and the atmospheric pattern that drives this SST pattern. Many of us refer to the atmopsheric pattern that's driving the SST configuration as the PDO. I'm guilty of it, too. 

I think you're both right. The SST PDO is a reflection of a propensity of the atmosphere to favor that state. Whether that is positive or negative. There are also far longer term oscillations known, such as the IPO. Which can have a period of 40-60 years. I personally believe the IPO explains the long term negative period we have witnessed.  There are also short term (+PDO) events within a long term -IPO, and vice versa. Although they are shorter lived than they otherwise would be when they oppose the IPO. With the + or - phase dominant over that entire period depending on the IPO. We are currently in a negative phase. We have been since the late 1990's. For one reason or another, the atmosphere has been predisposed towards -PDO thanks to that. I actually think this explains quite well a year like 23-24(-IPO). Where you can get an el nino with a -PDO. Or on the flip side, a year like 95-96(+IPO). Where you can get a la nina with a +PDO. The EOF of a +IPO is posted below followed by a few studies. Pay extra attention to the second one, as it relates to the North Pacific.

Powerful enso events have the potential to flip the Pacific. As the la nina following 97-98 is attributed to beginning this current negative IPO phase. So we're closing in on 30 years now. In this context, I find an inbound record breaking el nino all the more interesting. There's a shot at flipping the longer term Pacific to something more like the following EOF. Instead of the opposite, which we've become accustomed to. The record wildfires in Australia several years ago also may have acted to extend this negative period beyond what it otherwise would have been. By driving the triple dip la nina of the 2020's. In fact it's been postulated that had those fires not happened. 2015-16 likely would have begun the transition to +IPO. 

The influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2500-x

"Since 1920, there are two warm (1924–1944 and 1977–1998) and two cold (1945–1976 and 1999–present) IPO phases, whose change is associated with abrupt shifts in North Pacific sea level pressure (SLP) and contrasting anomaly patterns in T and P and atmospheric circulation over the eastern and western Pacific."

Statistical relationships between the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-07035-8

" While the spatial SST patterns that represent the IPO and ENSO are similar, the IPO is meridionally broader in the central to eastern Pacific, which may be caused by a lagged relationship with low-frequency SST variability in the equatorial Pacific. In addition, North Pacific SST anomalies of opposite sign to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies is a unique feature of the IPO that cannot be explained by decadal ENSO variability. This suggests a clear IPO and ENSO relationship, but also independence in some of the IPO’s characteristics."

The role of interannual ENSO events in decadal timescale transitions of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05784-y

"A long pre-industrial control run with CESM1 is analyzed to show that there is a greater chance of ENSO activity to contribute to an IPO transition when off-equatorial western Pacific Ocean heat content reaches either a maximum (for El Niño to contribute to a transition to positive IPO) or minimum (for La Niña to contribute to a transition to negative IPO) as seen in observations."

2019-2020 Australian bushfire smoke, multi-year La Niña, and implications for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01204-8

The H300 PDO or upper air PDO index came in at -2.03 for July. The last time this index was positive at all was 2015-16. The last time it was +1 or greater was 1997-98.

  2026       1   -1.61
  2026       2   -1.58
  2026       3   -1.73
  2026       4   -1.70
  2026       5   -1.93
  2026       6   -2.05
  2026       7   -2.03

Today's run shows it well too.

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yet, and this may have already been mentioned, most modeling shows the upcoming MJO having an affinity for the Maritime Continent. 

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

Yes. Much of that has to do with modeled tropical cyclone activity. Mainly Typhoon Dolphin and 94W in the near term. Other stuff is modeled beyond that too. TC's can play some games with those RMM charts sometimes rendering them misleading. I enjoy looking at the MJO a little more in depth when I am able to. Including satellite obs. Notice around the MC it's actually mostly clear. The underlying MJO signal is poised to make it's way across the west Pacific then interact with the el nino. Beginning to offer amplification as it continues working its way further east during week 2. Aiding a powerful WWB as a result. That's my take on it anyway.  

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2 has been hitting hard in October for a while. Considering how far away we are from October, it might be the biggest yet if correct. But is that signaling the big finale?  Idk. Just wondering based on an apparent November forecast peak.

That's quite impressive looking too! I'm not quite sure what to expect with this thing other than a powerhouse STJ. It's unprecedented in many ways. I'm having fun just monitoring it. Tons of interesting aspects. Really fascinating event.

1 hour ago, annunciated said:

Looks to me we will have another WWB in a week or so. The ECMWF suite, AIFS especially, has been pretty consistent on this signal for a few days now.

Yes, and it's looking like a big one too as the MJO swings back through again.

This loop is impressive.

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

My point was despite any warming, last year's Niña was pretty canonical. This year's Niño can still happen (canonical) by either the PDO coming around or the Niño overwhelming it. And when you consider all the seasonal models are pretty well aligned to one, odds favor it short of a total failure of all seasonal modeling. 

Ah, I see what happened now. Sorry for the confusion this morning. You probably thought I was referencing what bluewave was posting about. I was not. I was referencing what so_whats_happening had posted. About recurving typhoons. Which is why I quoted him. Was a coincidence I posted that right after BW did. I think I could have worded that a little better. Perhaps it was just too early.

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’ll die on this hill, the PDO is going to be weak positive by the end of met fall
 

I feel that it will too but think it's also important to point out that there is some resistance out there.

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Idk, last year's Niña was pretty standard for Niñas with snows along the east coast and cold. 

Well yeah, but that's a totally different animal from today. That's in sync with the PDO. This El nino is out of sync. That makes all the difference and I can try to make a post later as to why. I never had any problem with la nina's. Weak to moderate enso of either sign historically can treat me well locally. It's neutral or very strong events I'm not overly fond to see. Here's a picture from the blizzard this past winter. Ended up with 2 feet.

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I would like to add more context I guess, it is nice to see some actual recurves still taking place even in a weakened state of a storm the energy injection is still important. I do wonder though if this means yet again an overall weaker Aleutian low potential for winter, time will tell of course.

That is the PDO battle royale in a nutshell. As a -PDO plus +ENSO can yield a weaker Aleutian low than you would otherwise expect to see. Yet, PDO variability and transitions has links to the strength of the Aleutian low too. So it's fascinating watching a +enso of this caliber coming up against the deeply entrenched -PDO state. Since Aleutian low strength has ties to +enso strength also. Does one or the other win out? Or is it more of a blend between the two? I lean towards a record el nino taking an upper hand at some point. I feel like this event has some potential to flip us out of that long term -PDO state too or at least begin to. Who knows, but it's really interesting to watch.

Let's do a comparison as things stand currently wrt SST's. Here's this year followed by the other strong/super el nino's going back to 82-83. Below is this year currently, followed by the others in reverse chronological order. Obviously, the globe is getting warmer over time. Naturally, sst's would follow suit. Is anyone disputing that fact anymore? I don't really see anyone doing that but not the point of this post. One can clearly see things warming over time. 

I've been floating around on these boards for a very long time now. There used to be discussions from very wise mets in the enso threads of yore on how actual sst's should be viewed and pondered. Not only the anomalies. So I'm posting the actual sst's as comparison. Looking at it this way, 97-98 and 87-88 stick out to me a little more so than the others. Again, not because of the actual readings compared to each other. Rather, the positioning of the warm pool biased east.