EasternLI

1 minute ago, vegan_edible said:

I'm kinda with Liberty and I'm looking for one torchy summer and hopefully ENSO will kick us into a semi decent winter next year

We'll have to wait until spring plays out to see where we are with enso. There's a spring forecast barrier we need to get through to have a better idea how that looks. 

4 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

If it showed a cold flip, we’d discount it. But since it’s this ‘winter’ I’d bet money that it pans out. 

I'd buy a cold flip if there was a solid reason to. Right now, there's all the reason to buy a torch. So it makes sense tbh. 

21 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Six more weeks of November, congrats all

No worries, it'll be November 180th before you know it!

57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

where is this heat coming from? is the sun suddenly brightening up or something?

 

It's just plain hard to get good looks in a la nina February any way you slice it. Unless, blocking. The way I see it, there's also some constructive interference from the MJO with la nina just prior to that. So there it is. West gets the trough, as you can see by the cold there. We ridge. 

Beyond that, it's a little iffy to me. The MJO might want to keep it moving. But also, the American guidance is saying the strat might need to be watched again now. Which may add uncertainty beyond that. You just know that one will go off too, just in time to ruin spring 

I totally buy the eps furnace after the briefest arctic shot known to man. The end of the 00z has a real roasting in progress.

I can only claim a trace over here today. Grass whitened with a Swiss cheese coating. Nothing on any reliable measuring surface on the ground. Still sitting with the 0.4" here from December here as far as I'm concerned. 

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Another reason I am sort of leaning away from the top 5 snowless is the tendency in many years where a La Nina is collapsing and we are headed into an El Nino there have been significant late spring snow events...not always at the coast but it was nearly an automatic occurrence back in the 80s and 90s...I think one year maybe 1986 we had a May snow event inland 

Gotcha, and that's fair enough. Will be interesting to see what happens. I still have questions about March anyway. 

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

MJO has underperformed all winter to a degree so I don't know...the weeklies have also suggested it may be cooler late February.  I still am telling everyone hoping for the shutout that its probably not gonna happen.  I am far from sold even top 5 snowless occurs because the storm track has been active.  You add in tendency in recent years for juicy systems we could get 10 inches in one shot easily now.

I think February is warm, when all is said and done. We'll have to see of course. I'm not really sure about the tail end of the month into March tbh. I don't have a great feeling about it though given this la nina.

I think the further we go through February, the more we torch. Maybe even substantially at some point. If the MJO stuff I'm seeing is any indication. So I buy what the weeklies are selling there. I've sort of moved on to mostly watching enso for next year. Which I am honestly seeing a pretty solid case to be made there. Using the current obs of the Pacific, for a developing modoki el nino. So that's definitely going to be interesting to see how that goes from where we are. It's also a little interesting to me that a year like 2001-02 led to one in 02-03. So one can't help but wonder if an abysmal winter, similar to this one, is part of that process. As the conditions present this year are, surprisingly to me tbh, found during the development of those types of events in the previous winter. Fascinating. 

Pure light snow. 32F

I will accept this pittance 

Light rain switched to a light snow/sleet mix a while ago. Leaning mostly light snow now. 33F

Minus 1 for NYC on the eps mean.

Nice try.....building. How is this any better lol 

13 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Ugh the eagles are gonna win the Super Bowl. 

It's a game again lol

Yup. 49ers in trouble quickly lol

We 2001-2002...

Crash Eagle's Crash 

Roy Munson winter 

~5th doesn't look so terrible for some kind of system. The vortex is lifting away from our lap. Leaving some cold available. We do get windows in those situations. Timing that right, that's another story. 

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Past 30 days of OLR(shading) with 200mb velocity potential from JMA. Past 30 days of sst averaged. Warm pool did the heavy lifting in the tropics this month. You'd expect a horrible Pacific with this type of positioning here. Just like we got. I have a theory about why the Pacific jet may have remained supercharged for so long as well. With the TPV parked in siberia for the bulk of the month. Which set some cold records there. Then you have this warm pool sitting directly south of that. I'm wondering if that sharp temperature contrast between the two features at least helped that happen. The longevity of it. Can't prove that right now, but it's a idea. 

Just to tack on to this quickly. The following figure from the following article, nicely displays what we would like to see instead. Bias this further east towards the central Pacific, you can get a nice Pacific. Biased west, extending towards the Indian Ocean, we can get what we've seen. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-49449-7

3 hours ago, Nibor said:

Yo I know this shit has been said a million times this winter and it doesn't really need to be rehashed but man... this winter really fuckin sucks.

Like... shit is so god damn boring.

Yup. Boring winters are the worst. This one is evil though. How dare you flash us that December block, fail on that completely, then do this. Shoot it into the sun. 

Past 30 days of OLR(shading) with 200mb velocity potential from JMA. Past 30 days of sst averaged. Warm pool did the heavy lifting in the tropics this month. You'd expect a horrible Pacific with this type of positioning here. Just like we got. I have a theory about why the Pacific jet may have remained supercharged for so long as well. With the TPV parked in siberia for the bulk of the month. Which set some cold records there. Then you have this warm pool sitting directly south of that. I'm wondering if that sharp temperature contrast between the two features at least helped that happen. The longevity of it. Can't prove that right now, but it's a idea. 

21 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

So what does it mean when I’m in ACY with my wife and spending more time checking the models than gambling? After a couple drinks checking the models feels more like emotional gambling than getting fleeced on roulette or something. 

Ah yes, this is the standard operating procedure of the weather weenie. We all know it well. You're having a better time than me. Here's a live look at my situation: