EasternLI

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Did you move to the panhandle of Texas recently? Congrats !!

I see a lot of assumptions about the MJO on the EPS using the RMM charts. It was not dying out on the 00z run. Use those at your own risk. It's modeled to start pushing east, slowly, starting on the 21st. That date has been solid for some time now. There have been no changes there. We'll see what happens, just need to keep watching trends. I see no cause for concern yet. 

It's also very slow moving. So models could be rushing things. There's always concerns. Even if we were looking at a great pattern, there would still be concerns. Nothing is a lock with this stuff. 

I thought he wanted one sentence 

J/k

The way I view it, the la nina is driving the indices. The MJO mixes that up. Not always, but has the ability. So you can get a better sense of where things could be headed. This is a great graphic. 

I'm not seeing that. Not at this time.

Just starting to nudge into phase 8 now at the end of the ensembles. Barely. Makes sense that those changes starting at the end would be related. The hope is for continuing propagation to be advertised. Along with continuing improvement to the pattern. I'm not going to worry about a pattern change after the pattern change that hasn't even set up completely yet. We'll cross that bridge when we can see it in the distance. 

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Question for whoever, what do easterlies in the Indian ocean typically represent? That will happen as the ones west of the dateline die off and shift well east to off the central American coast.

 

Grabbed this from NOAA's MJO update. 850 VP and wind anomalies. These are phases 6, 7, 8. Looks phase 7 like getting close to 8 at the very end?

This is just a really nice example of a 50/50 low on the 6z gefs after Christmas. 

8 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

 

Following this closely as well.  That dark blue stripe west of Ecuador certainly can't be a bad thing for us winter weather lovers, right?

No, not at all. It would be far worse if it was in the central Pacific. That was a welcome development. 

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

 

Yikes 

Not good. 

30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What do you think this means. Because we seem to be getting the typical Jan/Feb Nina climo now.

However this suggests the rest of winter won't play out like a typical Nina. 

I have a sneaking suspicion that this la Niña taking on an east based look is playing an important role. 

Impacts of two types of La Niña on the NAO during boreal winter

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z

As a response to the EP La Niña, the North Atlantic (NA)–Western European (WE) region experiences the atmospheric anomaly resembling a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern accompanied by a weakening Atlantic jet. It leads to a cooler and drier than normal winter over Western Europe. However, the CP La Niña has a roughly opposing impact on the NA–WE climate. A positive NAO-like climate anomaly is observed with a strengthening Atlantic jet, and there appears a warmer and wetter than normal winter over Western Europe.

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The very amplified and slow moving MJO is related to the extreme marine heatwave near Australia and New Zealand.

 

 

 

I agree with that but I think we need a catalyst. Such as a TC/Typhoon. Which is what I believe is a good manifestation of that. There is some activity in that area currently. It's also one reason why the RMM plots look whacky sometimes. 

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Most likely by January we will be in 8 but there will be a lag response to it.

We can work with a negative AO, NAO and negative PNA.

Modeling is not very good with the MJO. That's why I've been leaning very heavily on the science instead of models. Which is proving very useful so far. I'm more happy about that than anything else. We just need to observe at this point and follow trends but so far so good. 

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models are starting to adjust colder for the mid and long range .

Good to see

We're seeing adjustments to ridging pushing into Greenland quicker. Which, I wasn't really expecting so soon TBH. Great to see though, obviously. MJO is crawling on the VP 200 charts. Don't really see it in phase 8 yet through the end of their runs, at least on those charts. Still phase 7. Getting really close though towards the end. More so on EPS than GEFS actually. Could be why we're seeing a slight improvement towards the end of those runs. Fascinating to watch all of this unfold. 

The 00z EPS clusters punted the idea that they were once showing for the 21st. However, all of them now have something near the area for Christmas day lol.

EPS last night sort of hinting at something similar late in the run. 

Maybe we're stepping into a longer term favorable -nao cycle. They do run in decadal cycles. None to be found last decade. Last year it showed up too.

Great thread by Griteater again. Well worth a read. 

We take. 

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully the weeklies are right

If so then we will have plenty of chances in the upcoming weeks.

Well, I put very little faith in extended modeling these days. Just in general, regardless of what is shown. What is nice to see is someone like Paul Roundy saying something like that. He is an expert on tropical convection/MJO. 

That ~22nd thing gaining support from the EPS. Gotta watch the trends with this. This is what the top two EPS clusters are looking like from today's 00Z. Eyes open today. 

Hr 192

This is a bit.... different. Buried under the 12z EPS mean, HR's 192(bottom)- 240(top). Half of all the members did this.