EasternLI

For the record, no that does not mean I'm already moving on to next year. Seeing that strat disruption pattern on ensembles. If we get an extended time with that, not sure what that's going to do upstairs. 

La Niña self destruction countdown begins. For those who would like such things to occur. With an extended event ahead, this could be interesting for next year. 

On self destruct for next year?

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Been sick all week. My entire facility is sick.  My wife's entire building is sick.  Hope you feel better soon.

Ugh. Same to you and everyone else!! 

Woke up with congestion and a headache. Ugh. Home test was negative but trying to find a place for testing anyway. It's proving very challenging at this time. High demand 

10 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’m not familiar with the MJO. 
 

I decided to read up on it a bit

 

seems record snows and higher chances of snow occurs during phases 7 and 8 here in the northeast. Why is that? 

Research indicates it's more phase 8 for NE snowstorms. There's a paper somewhere out there on that. The reason is that it's capable of altering the jet orientation to be more favorable for such events. The phases are just different locations where tropical convection is active. It can be much more complicated, but that's the basic idea. 

Little bit of action in the strat too that run. Wondering if that's related. That would make sense. 

18z gefs is taking this new mjo wave from phase 6 and really amplifying it now in phase 7. Don't know if that happens but that's the first run (gefs or eps) I've seen doing that. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The record WPAC warm pool has turned into an extreme Rossby wave  generating machine. Last summer it was the record ridge and heatwave over the PACNW. This month the record ridge is centered south of the Aleutians. 

 

Agree with that, emphatically. This is a powerful force this year. 200mb streamfunction reveals a commanding presence. Also, no surprise, right where it needs to be for a -PNA. 

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

its not the end of the world if there is 0 measurable snow this season, that would actually be historic and fun to see.  It also considerably increases the odds for seeing a historic positive season in the next few years based on the last 20 years.

 

Won't happen. We'll find a fluke event in March or something. Would be unprecedented though.

Big picture. The strat is up to bat next IMO. Probably hear some talk about it over the next 2 weeks. This current - NAO isn't going to last forever. We'll need a strat assist to keep the arctic favorable down the line. There's real potential there though, but mother nature is going to do whatever she wants. So we observe. Maybe we spin the ssw roulette wheel. 

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Nice post. I know you warned about it before and have been very fair….but some people have to have the fact that the MJO may never makes it in to phase 8. I stated my reasoning for thinking it doesn’t a few times and you were very objective about it. You also don’t want to see IO convection start firing in mid-January, something some models are showing 

Thanks for the kind words. I'm on the search for a good pattern. However, I'm not going to let that cloud my judgment. That's pointless to me. All of your reasoning has merit. You bring up good points often. The only issue is the abrasive delivery at times. But it's all good. You're right, we don't really want to see that. That would end up +AO and with that Pacific that would be that.

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The typhoon really slowed the progression of the mjo. Probably won’t be until the new year we get into p7. Hopefully we can get a pac reshuffle but the ensembles have definitely been can kicking it 

Yup. This stuff is challenging for all models. So constant monitoring is helpful to "look under the hood" so to speak. There's some hints I'm seeing that a new wave takes over in phase 6 and propagates right into to phase 7. But as the old one is dissipating. So it's a stalled out in Phase 7 look on the ensembles. Griteater has a nice thread on Twitter about other years that did something similar. The hope is that this phase 7 will do significant damage to the PV. It's pretty much wait and see what happens at this point. 

In fact, there's some of that happening right now. It's just not doing enough to alleviate the deep -PNA as it stands currently. 

IMO, it's this area of persistent convection north of Australia causing this persistent -PNA. So you would want some subsidence to push east from the Indian Ocean to tamp that down somewhat as the mjo moves east. That's what was happening on some of the better ensemble (eps & gefs) runs last week. Not so much currently. This is also a piece of the la Niña base state. So it's definitely a challenging proposition, especially with very warm water in this area. Just wanted to point that out for those wondering why that -PNA is there in the first place. 

Actually, after looking a little closer at the MJO. It's more like this current wave is dissipating on the doorstep of phase 8. With a new one emerging in phase 6 moving back into phase 7. Eps and gefs both have that look. Almost like a new pulse of energy? Interesting stuff.

Another QBO link 

High AAM and phase 7. What happens to the strat in the period ahead? I think that's the answer for what the 2nd half of winter does. If nothing happens, it's probably spring starting in February this year. 

Stuck in phase 7 on the eps and gefs today. So it’s just a very similar pattern continuing on those right now. The flip side though, being stuck in phase 7 has legit potential to deal hits to the PV. How much so? Seems like it could be significant if we actually were to get stuck in a pattern capable of doing that. Repeatedly. 

Eh, eps has been struggling too. I don't see this as an exclusively gefs thing. Otherwise, agree. 

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

I don't even look at those. However, that one seems like a good approximation for today. I'm using VP 200 supplemented with 850 zonal wind for the most part. Those charts get wacky sometimes. 

Strange mjo modeling this morning. It's almost like this wave tries to get into phase 8. Dies out and a new one gets going in phase 7. Weird. 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We will flip to a snowy pattern

 

Just need patience 

Maybe. There's a couple forks in the road ahead. We just need to see which way the driver takes us. Hopefully you paid him and not snowman lol

Here's an example. This is only an example. The 18z gfs progressed through that same pattern. Then, look what happens upstairs. 

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Good luck with phase 8 lol God speed!!! The phase 8 wishcast shall live in infamy!!!!