EasternLI

Here we go. This is the little snippet that I remembered reading. It's in this paper. 

How Does the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Affect the Boreal Winter Tropospheric Circulation in CMIP5/6 Models?

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/20/jcliD200024.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display

For most models and the reanalysis, the height response over the North Pacific to the QBO is mainly explained by the direct downward-arching of the equatorial stratospheric winds. Specifically, the arching easterlies during EQBO correspond to a high height response in the reanalysis and some models

There's also some interesting points regarding the NAO and modeling. Which isn't really surprising as that's always been a fickle area. 

A strong negative (positive) NAO-like response is observed during EQBO (WQBO) winters in JRA-55 (Fig. 2a; also see Fig. 7 in Gray et al. 2018), while both lobes of the NAO (i.e., the low center in the midlatitude Atlantic and the high center in high latitudes) during EQBO are somewhat underestimated even in the ensemble mean of good models

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

HM wrote an article back in early 2012 showing that -QBO/Niña strongly supports a flat Aleutian ridge while +QBO/Niña strongly supports a poleward Aleutian ridge

Yes, I remember that. There was a specific height level of the QBO he focused on for that. I wish I could remember exactly. It doesn't seem to be online anymore. What I'm talking about is something else though. I'm just speculating that maybe the QBO aided the amplitude of the ridge somewhat directly. So we see a record -PNA episode as a result. Just a hypothesis. I'd have to find the paper on that and read it again. 

I've been thinking a little bit about that record -PNA business. I think it's actually possible that the QBO could be contributing to the Pacific ridge directly. I remember reading that the QBO actually has a surface reflection. In the form of North Pacific high pressure. But only in EQBO and la Niña. I'll have to dig around for that.

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Giants and Jets shouldnt even be allowed on TV

Lol just terrible 

5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here is how November finished for reference:

Nino 4: 28.01C  Nino 3.4: 25.81C   Nino 3: 24.17C  Nino 1.2: 20.67  QBO: -19.78

I did use other years for my forecast. But I still don't see any reason for the La Nina or QBO to rapidly move away from the 1974 and 2017 blend.

I'm not a QBO guy anyway. Wasn't the whole point of the QBO nonsense this year that December should have been cold when blended with the ENSO base state? My opinion has always been that the QBO looks like it drives certain patterns because it has one or two heavy anchoring analogs that are very cold or very hot that mask the variation when you run the composite....so this year isn't exactly changing my mind.

Maybe someone who actually believes in the QBO can offer their thoughts though.

 

I've done quite a bit of reading on the qbo. From what I've gathered, it doesn't quite work that way. I used to think of it in a very similar way. So I understand where you're coming from. Think of it as more of a modulator not so much as a driver. Which can constructively or destructively interfere with, well many various things allegedly. It's actually quite complicated. However, it's starting to be revealed to be quite important. Definitely not fully understood, and is a hot topic of recent and further research. Most notably in more recent research, it has a strong connection with how the mjo is able to propagate, it's amplitude, and ability to have effectiveness. This happens only during boreal winter and is strongly linked. 

So, for example, we have a la Niña plus EQBO. Research says that because of this, the MJO should be more active. Also, it should be able make it beyond the Maritime Continent barrier. While, under WQBO plus la Niña, that would be the opposite. If it were an el nino, it wouldn't matter for the MJO. But also, the MJO is less effective in those cases. This is just one example, it goes beyond the MJO as well. The MJO relationship has just been the focal point more recently. Here's one recent paper which goes over some of this. Hopefully this is somewhat useful information for you. 

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16742834.2019.1588064

Just wanted to wish you fine folks happy and healthy holidays. I lurk in here often because I think all of you provide some excellent analysis. Cheers 

10 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Don’t be so negative, even a broken clock is right twice a day. 

No way. Started a storm thread once and it almost immediately evaporated lol

Of course even a good pattern doesn't need to deliver anything either. But it would help. 

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I hope this isn’t one of those years where the good pattern is always ten days away. We got spoiled here on Long Island many times since 2004 ish. 
 

 

This isn't like that. The actual wheels are in motion in 48 hrs. This looks pretty solid IMHO. 

18 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Somebody should just start a January thread soon. My mojo sucks, so somebody else lol

Hey, I'm all about the science, but I'm also a giants fan. Other giants fans know what I mean

Just now, dmillz25 said:

Negative nancies questioning mets make me laugh. Like if they could do any better

It's always one liner responses too. Maybe put a little effort into it 

Somebody should just start a January thread soon. My mojo sucks, so somebody else lol

Watch the progression. Focus by Japan. The west Pacific Jet extends and shoves the ridge poleward. Going to have to watch that. That's looking kind of legit. 

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

 

Beautiful example of the wave break there on that. 

GFS is doing it too. I think this is what we were seeing on the EPS mean as well.

Hmmm, perhaps the wave break idea is gaining support. Due to Pacific jet extension from high pressure decent in E Asia. This is not the only thing showing this. 

So let's take a look at the MJO currently. When I look at this picture, I see that the MJO did in fact propagate east. However, it was shunted to the southern hemisphere just like the NOAA update said was possible due to la Niña. So it has minimal effect where we are. What we're left with, is the anchor by Australia and the feedback loop. But also, the strong subsidence in the Indian ocean. Which is also anchored in place by all of this. Guidance is showing a new wave forming in association with the feedback loop. Just my take on it. 

I haven't looked at the eps clusters in a while. But they all have some kind of cold shot around new years. All over the place though, after that. 

I always thought that we could get this season to around average snowfall. Haven't seen anything to change my mind on that yet. 

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That low north of Japan weakens which helps push the -epo domain east. 

Yeah, saw that. I was thinking that could be associated with a wave break. So maybe it gives a little shove when that happens?

I don't see the 00z eps getting to phase 8. Looking like phase 7 still to me throughout that run. What I think we’re seeing is a wave break or two that grabs a piece of that ridge and pushes it poleward. A lot of guidance is showing something like that. So maybe that pushes some of that cold east somewhat for a time. It seems to me as though the same overall pattern is still in place for the most part. At least on that run. 

Just noticed this thread. 

0.5" in Riverhead 

Measured 5 locations, all the same. 

3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Glad to hear that. My brother and his family have it now. Not too bad this far, my sister in law is already much better. 

Wishing them, and everyone else dealing with it, a speedy recovery. That's good that they are only dealing with mild symptoms. 

Was able to get a test the other day only since my mom works at a hospital. So they are testing family members as well. Came back negative this morning. So this is just a standard cold. Relieved. 

0.5" of snow fell last night over here. First measurable. A nice Christmas eve surprise.