EasternLI

Just now, Snow88 said:

Majority of forecasters think the mjo will go into the COD and not affect the forecast.

Hopefully that's what happens. I'm just a bit concerned with the lackluster look starting to emerge on ensembles with the Pacific in the 10-15 day. The Pacific should be helping out in an el nino at this point moving forward. It looks kind of meh on the latest runs. 

Not a fan of the sst profile myself. Phase 5 is Indonesia. Well, look where the warmest water is along the equator. ENSO anomaly charts are overrated IMO. The ground truth is more important. Why does the convection seem to want to hang out near phase 5 this year? Here's today:

Here's one that I saved from Jan. 11th:

Just something that I've had in the back of my mind...

Could have started as a very brief period of light snow in the overnight, if I did I missed it. Steady soaking rain at this time. With much more on the way as per radar. Temp stuck at 39 with a light north wind, so guidance that shot into the 50's over here will likely be wrong. Hearing occasional rumbles of thunder in the distance presumably from convection to my SE. Looks like about 1.21" of rain thus far. Wondering if the Euro with 1.5 or Nam with 3" from yesterday will be closer to reality. 

8 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

You need h85 to remain SE of LI for this to be a big snow event for LI

 

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I just want to add a quick illustration of what you're talking about here. Here's the 6Z GFS just as an example. 

For those that are wondering, pay attention to the wind direction on the above charts. You can see the center of the h85 circulation and how the temperatures respond accordingly. 

59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I can’t do this right now, but I posted a couple of days back a chart that showed the enhanced forcing me MJO  in Indonesia.  There is no question to me anyways that it influenced the pattern. You had 850 mbar easterlies convergence in Indonesia, divergence aloft over Indonesia, lots of convection there, and enhanced pacific jet.  This worked  constructively, , with the big low we had in Alaska. 

   Now as we hEad Deeper into the season, wave lengths change, a much weaker MJ O wave, and the effects should not nearly be anything close to what we had in December.This also looks to move east and hopefully be more constructive with Nino.

Just a quick thought that I've had pertaining to the above bolded comments. I haven't had a lot of time to participate on the boards this season thus far, however I have been reading quite a bit. It was discussed several years ago, I believe in an ENSO thread. That the actual sst's and not the anomalies are what we should be looking at for a clearer picture. I haven't seen that discussed this year, but I have to think that it's played at least some role in what you've mentioned above.

27 minutes ago, frd said:

Followed by the next winter which was just as bad. We might be getting two decent winters in a row. 

Next winter is also near the bottom of the solar min, some even say next winter has more of a connection. 

Not sure about the QBO.  Might get a 2 year Nino. 

And way out ( speculation ) there as well are going to be the effects form several VEI 3 or greater Volcanic eruptions to cool the globe. But in that manner not sure the effects of blocking. I know HM has spoke about the connection and Isotherm mentoned it as well. 

 

 

My apologies for dropping in on you fine folks. As far as the bolded is concerned. According to the solar cycle prediction charts which were actually updated last month, it looks like it's going to be a while still before we get to the bottom. I like your posts @frd so I thought this would interest you.

Have been too busy to post. Was able to grab a max depth measurement yesterday and had exactly 3". So I'm going with that for this event. Which, for the calendar date and my location is pretty damn impressive. Hopefully the start of a busy winter. 

On 11/10/2018 at 2:39 AM, LibertyBell said:

lol I hated 11-12 and 12-13, JFK received three quarters their average in 12-13, while Islip got almost 2x their average.  11-12 was bad everywhere.

And remember that the 00s decade was great for Long Island too!  Do you have Brookhaven/Upton snowfall numbers too, Chris? I bet they did even better than Islip did in both decades!

Here's the Upton snow numbers for all who may be interested:

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I have a wxbell subscription. I never have seen the euro seasonal on there, only the weeklies. 

Weather.us has it.

https://weather.us/monthly-charts/euro/usa/anomaly-geopot-500hpa/20181101-0000z.html

50 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would've been something if this hit at the same time that the new Halloween movie comes out.

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yes I am dreading winter. The main thing I hate is the darkness. Already getting dark too early. 

Been doing a lot of swimming this summer, going to miss it. Totally on the same page with darkness. 

I've actually been enjoying the warm and humid summer. I must be getting old.

Would have preferred not being awoken at 4:30 in the morning, but that was the best storm in years over here. 

14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I was just going to post the same thing. I remember of number of weather events before that but Feb 83 was the first one that I tracked, as good as one could track back then. 

Yikes, I just realized that was 35 years ago . That's the one that sparked my interest. Hurricane Gloria a couple years later solidified my interest.

I can blame the blizzard of '83 for getting me interested.

Just had a chance to read this. Well done and a great read as always. 

Didn't feel it 

Happy Thanksgiving folks 

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

People freaking out over models showing blocking in mid-November is insane. New England may even see rain from these threats. We have had great patterns in June, but it doesnt mean it will snow. 

I dont take any threat seriously until after December 1. Yes, i know we have gotten snow in October and November a few times in the past thirty years, but those are the exception and not the rule. If the models look the same in 2 weeks i will get more intrigued, as of now its fantasy.

I agree with your main point here. It's November, right.

The thing is, seeing blocking show up for the end of Nov. like this, is kind of what you want to see in a la nina. The ratter years, for the most part, didn't have it. That's what it's all about right now, at least for me.

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Those decadal averages really show just how much of a snow haven we've been in since 2000. 

Those 80s must have been putrid. 

They were.

3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Has rooting for any particular outcome ever affected the actual outcome?  Please advise.

Yes...

Oh wait you mean the weather.

Looking like a powerhouse on Goes 16 vis.