EasternLI

12z Ukie

Ooof 00z Euro

Is it still having trouble organizing.....

Sunrise over Ida.

Really taking off around the center right now. 

IR satellite showing pretty definitive warming in the eye over the last several minutes as well. 

Yeah, nice explanation of frictional convergence here:

https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints3/844/

Here's a short description of what that's showing exactly, for those unfamiliar. 

The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot.

Re: Solar 

The literature suggests a lag of ~3 years for max effect. So that would put us in a decent enough spot seemingly. Just wanted to point that out. Not making any calls based on purely that, obviously. 

COD.edu but use the mesoscale floater. Updates minute by minute. Really cool. 

Have been thinking LF somewhere very near CT/RI boarder since yesterday morning. Seems on track to me, give or take. Boatload of rain on the menu here today I think. 

6Z Still a lot of spread. But a decent cluster with the MTP track.

00z eps 

I've been liking that near MTP track since yesterday while quietly observing. Would make this a big rainmaker where I am. Interesting couple days on tap.

Didn't see 00z euro ensembles posted. Personally IMHO,after absorbing models for 2 days, thinking LF very near CT, RI border with this when all is said and done. 

MEI is interesting. At -1.53 it's more negative than any time last year. But also, have to go back about a decade for a comparable number. 

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/data/meiv2.data

La Nina watch in effect.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2021-enso-update-la-niña-watch

Smithtown area has got to be getting rocked right now. Judging by radar and the fact I hear constant thunder from that thing here in Riverhead. 

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks!

How do GEPS and EPS look?

Eps looks snowy. Didn't look at the Canadian. This is a pretty impressive ensemble mean.

And the end of the run is retrograding Scandinavian blocking to Greenland.