EasternLI

Yes, I realize it's an OP run out at day 10. But it's another instance of the ssw precursor pattern look. Not terribly dissimilar from when I posted it from the GEFS the other day. IF we happen to transit through a look similar to this. You would look for that potential 15-30 days later. That's the lag time for this pattern. It's just another halfway decent example for now. Pretty cool to see it again though. Figured I'd mention it. 

Windswept downpours are wild here 

When you see a 200mb VP anomalies chart for the month of November. During a La nina. This is pretty much exactly what you would wish for.

The La Nina related MC forcing was mostly, not all, but mostly in the SH. But by South America (very difficult to do in la nina) it was not. It was more NH. So it appears to have dominated accordingly based on the upcoming pattern we're faced with. So for the lead in of any year, that's all you could ever ask for as far as I can tell. According to these charts anyway. Yes theres certainly other factors. A lot of the other factors aren't too shabby either. So hey, we'll see where it takes us. 

13 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I can’t help but get excited for this winter. I’m trying to limit my expectations because we’ve been burned before but man things are looking good.

We haven't had anything like this in many years. Perhaps ever if it achieves record status. Trend arrow is definitely favorable. We've even seen some precursors. Just have to sit back and watch the show 

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

 

I'll see you that, and raise you this. Remember last years feedback loop?

Yeah, big fan of this year's pattern timing. It was potential before. But still looking on track. Nice 

This is the end of it. There's actually a strong shortwave visible just passing the rockies. You can follow it on previous panels. Hence the lower heights. 

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Latest tellies have the AO tanking  to impressive numbers

I'd think that would be favored actually. When you see the 500mb blocking, reflecting itself all the way up to 10mb. This is something we just do not see very often. 

hmmm 

This is actually a pretty textbook SSW precursor pattern on the 18z GEFS. May not go exactly like this, but that's what this is. 

That's wild. 

Timeframe of the evolution remains consistent. Which is nice to see. 

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Both EPS and GEFS have great looks for us.

Hard not to be intrigued when both are showing same progression.

The blocking is happening. That's not really too much in doubt anymore I think. Part of that process has already started. I understand the caution of some though too. There's a lot of moving parts. 

12z eps end of the run 

8 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

 

I'm starting to think the vortex may be lucky to make it through December... If we do really travel down that path. 

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2010-11 is valid here. the similarities to the late Dec 2010 pattern are uncanny and if this block does materialize in this way, there is certainly the potential for a high-end event during the second half of the month 

I actually like the look this year better, should it continue to stay similar. With that sea of Okhotsk low staying in much closer proximity to Alaska instead of further west like 2010 did. Keeping it more like we're seeing currently, would increase the chance of strat shenanigans at some point. More so than the other look, as nice as it is. That would be for longer term prospects, of course. Fingers crossed.

3 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

A few steps ahead, perhaps (compared to me anyways).  Knocking the PV on its heels in a manner that yields a prolonged period of blocking would be a huge bonus, in my book.  Hoping hard for it but I’m def focused on just getting a period of something other than the terrible PAC puke to which we’ve grown accustomed. 

The cool thing is, as it looks currently. The MJO is gearing up for a potential favorable run beyond all of this. Which means there's more potential for damage to the vortex in it's future. Beyond this stuff I'm showing now. 

Now, I may be viewing matters through a different lens than others at this current moment in time. Models are seeing this anomalous blocking all the way up to 10mb. It's a thorn in the side of the vortex. So I say we crank up a record breaking block. Then go from there. 

The runs that whiffed on that sorta messed up everything. But I haven't seen that anymore since then. 

This EPO ridge must link with that NAO ridge to shove the trough east like it is doing. That looks like a critical action on some runs I've seen. If this west coast trough at this timeframe is the concern. But that's looking better and better as we get closer anyway thus far. And it's inside day 10 now. 

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

The 10th is pushing it imo.  Might take a bit longer but you have the right idea about laying the foundation and having some patience.  

Oh I meant just start looking at things around then. Not looking for anything to start then lol 

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes, but cold looks to be dumping into the west coast. I don’t think that’s even a snow pattern for us 

Well I'm not looking for snow quite yet. Let's get a good foundation set first. Maybe after the 10th or so?

Everywhere is cold after the 8th verbatim.

Ends here