EasternLI

What a fantastic afternoon !

66F and mostly sunny here. Sign me up for more of this please.

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

EPS looks much better than the GEFS at this point. 

It can snow in the GEFS look BUT they would be sloppy events and favor northern areas IMO. Similar to Friday.

I was hoping for some prolonged warm weather myself. Don't really see that with that look. Probably ends up more back and forth for a while. I'm all set for snow. This season has met my expectations locally. Interior areas could use a good month though. I have this gut feeling that March this year could cook up some sort of big storm at some point though too. 

Here's the end of the EPS from 00z.

Sunday/Monday PNA spike has trended to flatten out. Shame. Looked halfway decent from a distance on ensembles. So looks like the northern stream just crushes the southern vort now. Instead of being able to dig more and turn the southern one up the coast. 

Here's this morning’s blend of models snowfall for this one. 

Here's the 12z euro. 

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. Yeah that’s definitely not happening this year 

Sure it could. But it'd be in April/May. 

Looking forward to Wednesday. 45 and sunny here now feels great with very little wind. I'm personally enjoying these more tolerable temperatures. Wouldn't mind a torched March at all, but that doesn't look realistic currently. Probably more back and forth. 

This is around the time of that PNA spike. Keeping an eye on this one. 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

That is awesome. Is it available on their site?

Some of the paid sites have it. I have it on weathermodels. 

Speaking of model blends. Here's the current model blend.

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like I’ll be in shorts and short sleeves again….

You must be looking forward to that after those occasions of hypothermia this month.... Hopefully you're fully recovered. 

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Temperatures quickly rebound next several days. This warm up will have more WSW flow than the record warmth last week. So Long Island could approach record high temperatures this time. Euro has temperatures well into the 60s even for Long Island. 
 

Yeah, was just looking at that. Wednesday looking really nice for temps. The nws model blend is a bit toned down. But we overperform on warmth these days. So I suspect the euro is closer to reality. Looking forward to that in a couple days.

Best snow squall here in some time. Pretty cool. I usually get the 7-10 split with these. 

HRRR swings that squall line through later. 

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are a few different schools of thought on that. One is that the Euro RMM index is weaker than the GFS. But the VP anomalies for both models are identical. So I am not so sure this is a MJO difference. The MJO has been stuck in phase 3 all month. But the La Niña MJO composite shows a much different pattern than we have been getting. This  leads me to believe that the MJO is not currently having much influence on the pattern. Remember, the MJO is only one part of the climate system. Sometimes it’s the dominant player and other times it isn’t. 

Actual pattern much different than MJO would suggest

 

 

Yeah, I think this time the MJO is taking a backseat too. That's a little odd to me given the QBO, but that's a different story. The upcoming proged pattern for instance, I think that's more about the wave break event. Maybe the strat is having some say too? Not sure. There's a little disturbance about to occur up there. Like you pointed out, it's not always all about the MJO. Other factors always need to be kept in mind as well. Sometimes those factors dominate. It all works together. That's a very important point there.

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS has really been leading the way this winter on these big North Pacific blocking intervals. It spotted the late December shift going into January and then the GEFS eventually caught on . The GEFS is correcting toward the stronger EPS idea in recent runs. 

EPS

 

GEFS has been struggling 

New run more like the Euro

 

 

Older run too weak

 

 

The look on the EPS definitely caught my eye this morning. These sorts of things have often come with the legitimate threats this year. So maybe we can cook up something around that time. Could be interesting. 

On the ensembles. Right around the beginning of March, another one of those +PNA spikes is coming into focus. That'll be something to keep an eye on again by default. 

Seeing some pockets of 80mph stuff on velocity scan. Impressive. 

57F over here. Feels great 

49F this morning already. Feels great out . I'm enjoying it while we have it. 

Looking forward to these temps for tomorrow . Not really looking forward to the wind threat tomorrow night though . 

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The common denominator to this winter pattern has been the record North Pacific blocking. The ridge has been shifting back and forth each month since December. So we get this extreme volatility from month to month and day to day. The tropical forcing and wave breaks seem to be acting as catalysts for the changes.  Standard MJO relationships and composites haven’t matched the canonical expectations this winter. So we have been getting a mash up of competing influences. Maybe the return of the West Coast Ridge near the start of March also has mixed causes and any specific MJO composites won’t  really capture the totality of the pattern.

 

It's been really cool to follow this particular season. So we have that North Pacific Ridge courtesy mostly of the la Niña I'm assuming. Maybe some kind of QBO influence with that feature as well (speculation). With the tropical forcing and wave breaking events seemingly shifting that main feature around occasionally. Perhaps some sort of PV influence now at this point too with the coupling to the troposphere. It's always amazing to me, to think about how everything is interconnected and how they all work together to drive the weather patterns. Curious to see how this plays out. With interest in this MJO event remaining as it pertains to ENSO next season as well. But that's for further into March. 

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another wave breaker pattern change near the beginning of March.  All the models have a deep low pressure in the 930s next week to the north of Japan. This combines with the MJO to eventually push the ridge back to the West Coast and eventually flatten out the SE Ridge near the start of March. It’s interesting that a similar process lead to the early December pattern change. But this time the MJO has different teleconnections for later in the season allowing a shift from late February warmth to early March cold. The big story this year is the reliable pattern changes near the start of every month. Cold in November…record warmth in December…coldest January since 2015 with record snows….shift to warmer in February with less snow….shifting back colder as we start March. 

 

Yeah, great post. I was looking at that briefly this morning. You can sort of see the wave break happening if you loop the ensemble runs. That's one way to shake things up. Interesting too that this similar process initiated the feedback loop with the MJO earlier this season I think. So it'll be interesting to see how this all works together this time. It's been fascinating watching the progression of everything. Intriguing season from a pattern perspective.