EasternLI

We watch, we wait. -NAO does have some support to be real this December for once. Due to actions taking place this month. We seem to be on a path less traveled this year. Should be interesting. 

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, forcing over South America is more in the MJO 8-1 region favoring a -NAO. So if I it’s strong enough, it can push back against a more hostile MJO phase 6. We saw something like this during the December 2010 La Niña. The Pacific was very hostile for the first 25 days of the month with the La Niña and Maritime Continent MJO 5-6 region forcing. While December 2010 blocking was historic, even a slight improvement on the Atlantic side can try to mute the influence of a more hostile Pacific. So we may start December with competing influences and whichever is stronger winning out. 
 

 

Exactly. It keeps it interesting to see what may happen. This is different than what we've seen recently too. The AAM charts posted by Matt Hugo on the main board are something I haven't seen in a long while. With -aam propagation poleward. Something that I remember HM talking about in regards to northern blocking years ago. Very interesting circumstances abound currently. 

Some La nina + QBOW + MJO thoughts:

It's interesting this year. La nina plus a WQBO favors keeping the MJO from really reaching the Pacific.

Combined effect of the QBO and ENSO on the MJO

"During La Niña/QBO westerly years, the MJO over the Maritime Continent is suppressed because of the strong Maritime Continent diurnal cycle, and it is further suppressed over the western Pacific because of the lack of a reinforcement process."

But that's already occurred in the autumn. I'm thinking the Kelvin waves have contributed to this action. Since they've been active and these same factors don't apply to them in that way. Helping it along?

These are multivariate MJO obs from the JMA site. One based on OLR and one based on VP. 

So let's say its possible we repeat something similar to that in December. We know there's a phase 7 - negative NAO connection. La nina and a westerly QBO gets interesting now. Because even though that would argue against it happening in the first place. When it does occur under those conditions there would theoretically be a stronger response. 

Modulation of the MJO-Related Teleconnections by the QBO

"During the westerly phase of QBO (WQBO), a stronger and longer lasting MJO‐NAO teleconnection is observed."

ENSO Modulation of MJO Teleconnections to the North Atlantic and Europe

"Conversely, the MJO to NAO− regime stratospheric teleconnection is enhanced during La Niña years and suppressed during El Niño."

So what ultimately happens? We'll have to wait and see but it's an interesting picture. 

I would highly recommend not driving through lake effect. Been there. The hood starts to disappear....

Just a fwiw post, but I find it promising to see this action by South America during the 2nd half of November. If the hope is to avoid a ratter of a la nina. The lousy la nina years did not do this. Some of the better ones, did. I find this extremely interesting and thought it was worth a mention. 

Let's do this 

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Have we seen a pattern like this at the end of the last 2 autumns? 

I'm thinking if we're seeing this now, this may repeat at least a few more times throughout this winter.

Well, that does seem to be a possibility at least. 

SWFE = SWmehE

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Next weekend will probably be real warm 

Yeah, next weekend is looking nice. Sign me up please.

What a fantastic afternoon !

66F and mostly sunny here. Sign me up for more of this please.

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

EPS looks much better than the GEFS at this point. 

It can snow in the GEFS look BUT they would be sloppy events and favor northern areas IMO. Similar to Friday.

I was hoping for some prolonged warm weather myself. Don't really see that with that look. Probably ends up more back and forth for a while. I'm all set for snow. This season has met my expectations locally. Interior areas could use a good month though. I have this gut feeling that March this year could cook up some sort of big storm at some point though too. 

Here's the end of the EPS from 00z.

Sunday/Monday PNA spike has trended to flatten out. Shame. Looked halfway decent from a distance on ensembles. So looks like the northern stream just crushes the southern vort now. Instead of being able to dig more and turn the southern one up the coast. 

Here's this morning’s blend of models snowfall for this one. 

Here's the 12z euro. 

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. Yeah that’s definitely not happening this year 

Sure it could. But it'd be in April/May. 

Looking forward to Wednesday. 45 and sunny here now feels great with very little wind. I'm personally enjoying these more tolerable temperatures. Wouldn't mind a torched March at all, but that doesn't look realistic currently. Probably more back and forth. 

This is around the time of that PNA spike. Keeping an eye on this one. 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

That is awesome. Is it available on their site?

Some of the paid sites have it. I have it on weathermodels. 

Speaking of model blends. Here's the current model blend.

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like I’ll be in shorts and short sleeves again….

You must be looking forward to that after those occasions of hypothermia this month.... Hopefully you're fully recovered. 

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Temperatures quickly rebound next several days. This warm up will have more WSW flow than the record warmth last week. So Long Island could approach record high temperatures this time. Euro has temperatures well into the 60s even for Long Island. 
 

Yeah, was just looking at that. Wednesday looking really nice for temps. The nws model blend is a bit toned down. But we overperform on warmth these days. So I suspect the euro is closer to reality. Looking forward to that in a couple days.

Best snow squall here in some time. Pretty cool. I usually get the 7-10 split with these.