EasternLI

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks! Do the EPS look good too?

Yeah, looking similar. 

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its too cold outside

 

I use to love this but I'm starting to hate it except when it snows.

What? 

Did snowman hack your account? 

But I hear you. I enjoy winter. But I also enjoy summer. Spring is really the only season I dislike here. 

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a blend of the record SPV +AO and La Niña MJO 5. So the TPV is over Greenland instead of Alaska. The CFS has the same pattern. The VP anomalies match up so we get a warmer than average +PNA SE Ridge pattern near the start of March.

 

 

Yeah, agreed. Was thinking the +AO was playing some role with that. And there you have it. Makes sense conceptually, to me. 

Will need to keep an eye on the possibility that ridging tries to push into NW Canada like this. That would try to squash the SE ridge somewhat. Here's the 00z eps.

Wound up with right around 3" here. So that's ~30" for the season. Which is right around average seasonal snowfall.

60F over here and sunny. Feeling good 

47F here already. Looking forward to another great day. 

48 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

That’s one of my favorite scenes 

Great movie. Haven't seen it in forever. I want to watch it again now 

55F here. Outstanding weather today. 

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That would be typical 1980s and early 90s.

Is phase 6 warm or cold in a La Nina March?

Warm. 

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This MJO wave may be important as to what type of weather patterns we get next winter. El Niño events usually need the MJO to make a strong push into phase 7 in March. That phase in the WPAC usually brings a WWB pattern which warms the Pacific. Both the EPS and GEFS have the MJO going into phases 4-5 for the rest of February and early March. If the MJO stalls out again near phase 6 in early March, then any return to cooler in March will get pushed back. The MJO not making a strong enough push into 7 could also mean the ENSO gets struck in neutral with a La Niña background state possibly  remaining entrenched again for next winter. 
 

 

Agreed totally. That's the most interesting facet to watch for with this particular MJO passage. With the potential WWB possibly initiating another downwelling Kelvin wave as well. Curious to see how this plays out. I'll certainly be watching this one with interest. WPAC SSTs are toasty. 

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Why the snarky response?

You’re talking about a phase with hopes of cold and snow.

Mid March, climate-wise, we are just about done.

I think that is a very relative point.

 

Sorry to rain on the mid march snow parade

I didn't say one word about snow or cold. You're making a lot of assumptions here about that post. And I realized that immediately, hence the snarky response. We're talking about the MJO. That doesn't automatically mean we're looking for snow or cold. I've been very objective on analysis of the MJO all season long. So I don't appreciate being lumped into some "snow parade". Sorry to rain on your strawman argument. 

5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Mid March? What is the point though

The point of what? Not sure what your point is. 

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the EPS weeklies update will be out later, the GEFS is taking the MJO warm tour into March. Strong MJO 4-6 right into early March with a warm SE Ridge pattern and +AO. But signs of MJO 7 by mid-March allowing more blocking. This is when the GEFS tries to weaken the very intense SPV. 

Feb 23 to Feb 28

 

Mar 1-7

 

Mar 16 weaker SPV and MJO 7 

 

Yeah, been looking things over for a couple days. Was going to post about it today. But I think you nailed it here. Agree. Noticing the possible propagation towards phase 7 in March as well. Hints of it for sure on the ensembles. I've been wondering a bit if the time in phase 3 helped this PV to finally couple. Being as those events are favorable for +AO. After much of winter not doing so. Just a little speculation. I'm sure there are other factors in play.

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps and gefs moving in the right direction for the vday weekend storm

Canadian ensembles have something out there as well. It's possible to squeeze something in if we get the favorable PNA spike. Just from a pattern point of view. Gotta keep an eye on it. 

Gefs isn't too bad either TBH. 

EPS may be starting to get interested in the 14th. This is the best look it's had thus far for that period from what I've seen. Let's gin up some more support. 

58 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps totally caving to the GEFS this afternoon…not shocked 

Definitely did in the tropics this run. Much more of the gefs type looks there among the individual members then there have been at 12z. I think it makes sense too, with what the gefs is doing. According to the sst layout currently anyway. 

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It does imo because the euro charts are lingering in 2/3 longer now. Which is a nod to the American guidance. Even the olr maps are slower with the progression then the euro 

Yeah I see what you mean. I actually think the gefs has done fairly well this year in the tropics. Euro guidance can get overamped sometimes late. I've seen it happen a couple times this season. 

Those RMM charts don't tell the whole story. Careful with those. 

Eps is still getting a little crazy with forcing near Indonesia late in the runs. Gefs isn't really doing that. Not nearly as dramatic at least. Holds on to the split forcing look longer. Lots of spread amongst the eps members with this. With some really going overboard still in that area. But also some others more gefs like. It'll be interesting to see what happens there. I'm pretty confident the weeklies will be a torch today. Being based on the 00z eps. Still low confidence for end of the month for me. 

It's nice to see the gfs and euro showing something for that timeframe. At least both can "see" a possibility. CMC tried to do something but made a mess of it. Promising. 

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro looks interesting for vday

I like that period for some sort of storm. Mentioned it the other day. Pv lobe pulled away, PNA spike. Keep an eye on that.

18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

"Insert picture of him wearing shorts and short sleeved shirt while it's in the 20s..."

"I was right!"

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS has more of a -PNA look near the end of the 0z run. But the GEPS and GEFS not as much.  The big story this winter was the historic PNA rise from December to January. It was the greatest on record from December to January. So even if the +PNA weakens or reverses in late February, the February PNA reading won’t be anything like December was. So in two consecutive La Niña winters, this December will be the only severe -PNA out of 6 winter months. The December PNA was a record breaking -2.56 and January jumped to +1.01.

 

 

EPS had a select few members getting a little crazy around Indonesia very late. Here's one example of that below. I suspect this is overdone, but will have to watch. More of some sort of split forcing looks on many others. This is when I'm uncomfortable, until gefs and eps are on the same page. Wondering if it has something to do with the tropical systems in the IO and how they're ultimately treated. Not sure. Tricky timeframe for now.