EasternLI

HRRR swings that squall line through later. 

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are a few different schools of thought on that. One is that the Euro RMM index is weaker than the GFS. But the VP anomalies for both models are identical. So I am not so sure this is a MJO difference. The MJO has been stuck in phase 3 all month. But the La Niña MJO composite shows a much different pattern than we have been getting. This  leads me to believe that the MJO is not currently having much influence on the pattern. Remember, the MJO is only one part of the climate system. Sometimes it’s the dominant player and other times it isn’t. 

Actual pattern much different than MJO would suggest

 

 

Yeah, I think this time the MJO is taking a backseat too. That's a little odd to me given the QBO, but that's a different story. The upcoming proged pattern for instance, I think that's more about the wave break event. Maybe the strat is having some say too? Not sure. There's a little disturbance about to occur up there. Like you pointed out, it's not always all about the MJO. Other factors always need to be kept in mind as well. Sometimes those factors dominate. It all works together. That's a very important point there.

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS has really been leading the way this winter on these big North Pacific blocking intervals. It spotted the late December shift going into January and then the GEFS eventually caught on . The GEFS is correcting toward the stronger EPS idea in recent runs. 

EPS

 

GEFS has been struggling 

New run more like the Euro

 

 

Older run too weak

 

 

The look on the EPS definitely caught my eye this morning. These sorts of things have often come with the legitimate threats this year. So maybe we can cook up something around that time. Could be interesting. 

On the ensembles. Right around the beginning of March, another one of those +PNA spikes is coming into focus. That'll be something to keep an eye on again by default. 

Seeing some pockets of 80mph stuff on velocity scan. Impressive. 

57F over here. Feels great 

49F this morning already. Feels great out . I'm enjoying it while we have it. 

Looking forward to these temps for tomorrow . Not really looking forward to the wind threat tomorrow night though . 

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The common denominator to this winter pattern has been the record North Pacific blocking. The ridge has been shifting back and forth each month since December. So we get this extreme volatility from month to month and day to day. The tropical forcing and wave breaks seem to be acting as catalysts for the changes.  Standard MJO relationships and composites haven’t matched the canonical expectations this winter. So we have been getting a mash up of competing influences. Maybe the return of the West Coast Ridge near the start of March also has mixed causes and any specific MJO composites won’t  really capture the totality of the pattern.

 

It's been really cool to follow this particular season. So we have that North Pacific Ridge courtesy mostly of the la Niña I'm assuming. Maybe some kind of QBO influence with that feature as well (speculation). With the tropical forcing and wave breaking events seemingly shifting that main feature around occasionally. Perhaps some sort of PV influence now at this point too with the coupling to the troposphere. It's always amazing to me, to think about how everything is interconnected and how they all work together to drive the weather patterns. Curious to see how this plays out. With interest in this MJO event remaining as it pertains to ENSO next season as well. But that's for further into March. 

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another wave breaker pattern change near the beginning of March.  All the models have a deep low pressure in the 930s next week to the north of Japan. This combines with the MJO to eventually push the ridge back to the West Coast and eventually flatten out the SE Ridge near the start of March. It’s interesting that a similar process lead to the early December pattern change. But this time the MJO has different teleconnections for later in the season allowing a shift from late February warmth to early March cold. The big story this year is the reliable pattern changes near the start of every month. Cold in November…record warmth in December…coldest January since 2015 with record snows….shift to warmer in February with less snow….shifting back colder as we start March. 

 

Yeah, great post. I was looking at that briefly this morning. You can sort of see the wave break happening if you loop the ensemble runs. That's one way to shake things up. Interesting too that this similar process initiated the feedback loop with the MJO earlier this season I think. So it'll be interesting to see how this all works together this time. It's been fascinating watching the progression of everything. Intriguing season from a pattern perspective.

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks! Do the EPS look good too?

Yeah, looking similar. 

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its too cold outside

 

I use to love this but I'm starting to hate it except when it snows.

What? 

Did snowman hack your account? 

But I hear you. I enjoy winter. But I also enjoy summer. Spring is really the only season I dislike here. 

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a blend of the record SPV +AO and La Niña MJO 5. So the TPV is over Greenland instead of Alaska. The CFS has the same pattern. The VP anomalies match up so we get a warmer than average +PNA SE Ridge pattern near the start of March.

 

 

Yeah, agreed. Was thinking the +AO was playing some role with that. And there you have it. Makes sense conceptually, to me. 

Will need to keep an eye on the possibility that ridging tries to push into NW Canada like this. That would try to squash the SE ridge somewhat. Here's the 00z eps.

Wound up with right around 3" here. So that's ~30" for the season. Which is right around average seasonal snowfall.

60F over here and sunny. Feeling good 

47F here already. Looking forward to another great day. 

48 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

That’s one of my favorite scenes 

Great movie. Haven't seen it in forever. I want to watch it again now 

55F here. Outstanding weather today. 

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That would be typical 1980s and early 90s.

Is phase 6 warm or cold in a La Nina March?

Warm. 

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This MJO wave may be important as to what type of weather patterns we get next winter. El Niño events usually need the MJO to make a strong push into phase 7 in March. That phase in the WPAC usually brings a WWB pattern which warms the Pacific. Both the EPS and GEFS have the MJO going into phases 4-5 for the rest of February and early March. If the MJO stalls out again near phase 6 in early March, then any return to cooler in March will get pushed back. The MJO not making a strong enough push into 7 could also mean the ENSO gets struck in neutral with a La Niña background state possibly  remaining entrenched again for next winter. 
 

 

Agreed totally. That's the most interesting facet to watch for with this particular MJO passage. With the potential WWB possibly initiating another downwelling Kelvin wave as well. Curious to see how this plays out. I'll certainly be watching this one with interest. WPAC SSTs are toasty. 

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Why the snarky response?

You’re talking about a phase with hopes of cold and snow.

Mid March, climate-wise, we are just about done.

I think that is a very relative point.

 

Sorry to rain on the mid march snow parade

I didn't say one word about snow or cold. You're making a lot of assumptions here about that post. And I realized that immediately, hence the snarky response. We're talking about the MJO. That doesn't automatically mean we're looking for snow or cold. I've been very objective on analysis of the MJO all season long. So I don't appreciate being lumped into some "snow parade". Sorry to rain on your strawman argument. 

5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Mid March? What is the point though

The point of what? Not sure what your point is. 

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the EPS weeklies update will be out later, the GEFS is taking the MJO warm tour into March. Strong MJO 4-6 right into early March with a warm SE Ridge pattern and +AO. But signs of MJO 7 by mid-March allowing more blocking. This is when the GEFS tries to weaken the very intense SPV. 

Feb 23 to Feb 28

 

Mar 1-7

 

Mar 16 weaker SPV and MJO 7 

 

Yeah, been looking things over for a couple days. Was going to post about it today. But I think you nailed it here. Agree. Noticing the possible propagation towards phase 7 in March as well. Hints of it for sure on the ensembles. I've been wondering a bit if the time in phase 3 helped this PV to finally couple. Being as those events are favorable for +AO. After much of winter not doing so. Just a little speculation. I'm sure there are other factors in play.