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wxmanmitch

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by wxmanmitch

  1. I like the statistical analysis! Since I've only been at my present location for two full winters, I don't have a big enough dataset to compute letter grades to the nearest tenth of an inch yet. I too will factor in other things like overall temperatures and snow retention into the final grade. Average or below average temperatures with the amount of snow I had would've put into the high C, low B range, but with the mild pattern and frequent rain/ice events it was a tough winter for the snow mobilers and skiers. January was pretty much a total loss and although things did recover in February, it wasn't great for either activity. Then come March and COVID-19 started shutting things down. My sigma values here are probably larger than up your way as I am more dependent on synoptic snows than the northern Greens or Whites that get more upslope and consistent cold. I will get upslope on occasion as well, but not like up north.
  2. D+/C- season here with a 143.5" season total. Yes, I have very high expectations...an a A range winter needs to drop at least 200". I would've given the winter a full letter grade higher if it weren't for the lack of consistent cold and the frequent rain and mixer events. Snow pack retention was below normal as well, especially with January's brutal mega torch that pretty much wiped out all of the November and December snow. Oh well, on to next season.
  3. 79°/64° F off a high of 82° F. Awful, I hate it, especially since there's so little breeze. I didn't reach or exceed 80° F until July 4th last year. Black flies have been brutal lately, but don't seem quite as bad today due to the heat. No deer flies yet, but they won't be far behind with this type of weather.
  4. Typically 850 to 900 mb, but I've seen blocked or slightly blocked flow occur if there's more of a northerly component to the wind in the low levels or weaker westerly flow without much evidence of an inversion. The stronger the cross barrier component of the wind and, of course, the lower the stability, the higher the Froude number will be. Looking back on it in more detail, there was likely some synoptic forcing mechanism that was enhanced by upslope behind those totals as opposed to just pure upslope. Many of these backside events are wrap around comma heads with NW flow, but the maxes with this one seemed a bit further west than usual. Shaftsbury, VT (10.5") and Cambridge, NY (12") are not typically spots that jackpot in these setups. Usually it's a bit to the east near the crest of the spine. How much of this was the result of synoptics vs. upslope is difficult to pin down and would make for a good case study subject. I measured 7.5-8" in Woodford at 10 AM, so the 8.5" report from 7:30 AM is legit. Even the east side of Bennington at 900' had 6-7". I finished with 5.0", but the Deerfield Valley towns just to my east had less than an inch. Very sharp gradients that were not as dependent on elevation as I would've anticipated.
  5. I'll head up to Woodford in a little to see if that 8.5" is legit, but I think it is. Likely some blocked upslope going on the west side of the Taconics and Greens that led to those 8-9" totals.
  6. 5.0" looks to be the final here as the sun comes out. Tough to measure due to the winds blowing around dry, fluffy nature of the snow. It's wet at the bottom. Depths ranged from 4.5" to 5.5". Had a low temperature of 22.6° F at 8 AM with a midnight "high" of 29.2° F. I wonder if I verify a subfreezing high today? It'll be close since that May sun is intense. Although May snow is not uncommon here (I had 3.3" last year on the 14th of the month), this type of snow is. It's like midwinter.
  7. A dime a dozen. Lots of homes and lots for sale...
  8. I only exceeded 80° F 4 times last summer, all in July. Max was 83.0° F on July 20th. I'm sure there have been numerous summers here that have failed to reach 80° F.
  9. 1.0" snow, 0.17" liquid equivalent snow and rain. Underachiever, but I wasn't expecting much to begin with. I may go down to near 0° F tonight, which is incredible for this early in the cold season.
  10. Enjoy it up north folks. Maybe a get a couple of inches on the backside tomorrow morning, but this is not a S VT storm. Watching the potential for some freezing rain down here later today and tonight.
  11. +SN, 23° F. 11" of upslope, 7" from the storm yesterday.
  12. I do accept the higher totals from Wilmington over to Jacksonville, Halifax, etc. as they caught that band that I and Woodford narrowly missed yesterday. I don't always buy some of the WeatherNet6 reports, especially Woodford's. Sometimes Woodford's reports are more in line with totals around here, but other times they are not and this is one of those cases where it is most certainly not. My two week total is ~80", so there's no way Woodford has had that in the past week.
  13. 8" of new upslope on top of the 7" from yesterday. Very light snow right now, but models have it ramping up again from around 03z to 12z, yielding another 0.5-0.75" of LE. Then it tapers to flurries and light snow showers tomorrow during the day before another round tomorrow night? Snow growth has been kind of cruddy with lots of small rimed flakes and even pellets at times. Unlike a lot of these upslope events though, there's some good weight to the snow thanks to the deep moisture layer wrapping around our storm. I'm not buying the 35" storm total report from Woodford. I drove through there today en route to do an errand in Bennington (which was almost a costly mistake as I pulled over to a parking area on the side of route 9 that hadn't been plowed in several hours to let someone pass and got stuck, but luckily I was able to weasel my way out of it). Yes, they have a lot of snow like I do, but I find it hard to believe that there would be a 20" gradient in less than 5 miles at pretty much the exact same longitude and similar elevation. They were west of the meso band that nailed areas just west of I-91 like I was and radar returns haven't been that much different there. Maybe they have a little more, but not 20" more. Meanwhile Bennington had only about 2-3" that was melting in the March sun angle with temps near 32-33° F. I came back via Williamstown and N. Adams as 9 and 8/100 are tough.
  14. Upslope machine is cranking. +SN. It doesn't look like much on radar, but trust me, it's nuking at least 1-2" per hour. Fine snow though. Will measure in a bit.
  15. Snow has increased a little and skies have darkened as the remains of the I-91 band have pivoted back here. Looking forward to what kind of backside upslope I can get. I'm a tad east of the spine axis, so I may not get quite as much as Woodford to my NW, but am close enough that I can do well as long as the flow isn't super blocked. We may upslope right through Thursday.
  16. 6" here. Light, fine snow with a silhouette of the sun poking through the overcast from time to time. That band that was along I-91 has been trying to pivot west a bit, but is dying as it does so. Probably won't make it here.
  17. White sandstorm here since the death band is about 20-25 miles east of where it was last time. Probably about 3-4" of new.
  18. Here we go again...25° F and -SN with a new dusting OTG. Expecting 8-12" tomorrow with a lot of upslope on the backside. This is the most potent upslope signal I've seen in these parts since the 11/20/16 event (see avatar), and that was a much wetter snow than this is going to be.
  19. My eclipse chase to Casper, WY was a resounding success. There were some wispy cirrus clouds during totality, but not enough to be of any detriment to the overall experience. The corona and Bailey's beads were clearly visible. It was like dawn/dusk with a 360° sunset/rise. What an incredible, goose bump inducing experience! Certainly one that I will never forget. It was well worth the money and hassle of getting there and back (mostly back). I drove up to Casper from my motel a bit north of Denver in 3 hours and 15 minutes, a distance of about 260 miles. I-25 was busy, but was moving along close to the 80 MPH speed limit during the wee hours. I left at 1:45 am and got to Casper at 5. Good thing I left when I did because Glendo (which I avoided since I had no idea how a village of 200 was going to handle 100K+ visitors) was starting to back up onto the ramp, but not the interstate yet. About an hour or two later, traffic looked bad on I-25 near there as it was backed up onto the interstate, creating a massive bottleneck. I left Casper at 2 PM and took back roads, but traffic was bad anyway. State highway 487 had a 40 mile backup to Medicine Bow and it took me nearly 4 hours to get from Casper to Medicine Bow. US Highway 30 east was good for about 35-40 miles before another jam in Bosler. Fortunately a friendly state trooper was directing some of the traffic onto an 18 mile dirt road cutoff that got me around most of this jam. I then took I-80 east to Cheyenne from Laramie and then US 85 south back toward my motel. I-80 was clear sailing, but 85 was slow at times, however not like I-25. It took 9 hours to get back to my motel, which I don't think is too bad all things considered. The 23 hour day was well worth it! KCPR had a 7° F temperature drop that I can definitely attest to as my viewing venue was right near the airport. The car surface became cool as well. I shot a brief cell phone video during the totality. The crowd's reaction is definitely noticeable. For the next eclipse in 2024 I will definitely book something in totality as far in advance as possible as the drive into and out of totality can be a pain. I'm not sure how far in advance most major US hotel chains will let you book a room. A year? I'm tentatively thinking somewhere south of Dallas near Waxahachie or Ennis. Totality is about 4 minutes and 24 seconds there, and I don't want to take a chance with NNE weather in early April, which is cutoff and backdoor season. South of Dallas also has good SW-NE accessibility along the totality path in case I need to relocate because of weather. Moving within totality is easier than getting in or out of it.
  20. You might want to make this plan A if it's not too costly to do so. Flight to DEN is may be more than flight to BNA, but odds of clear weather is worth it for me. I chose my location based on climatology, road network, and trip cost. Eastern Oregon doesn't have as good a road network and would be much more costly to fly and drive to. April 8, 2024 is a long time to wait. Lots can happen between now and then. Besides early April weather is iffy at best around these parts. Next totality in this country after 2024 is August 23, 2044 and then August 12, 2045. The 2044 eclipse will only be visible from MT and ND near sunset. The 2045 eclipse will be an absolute beast with over 6 minutes of totality and a ~170 mile wide totality path, meaning near total darkness near path center.
  21. I too have an eclipse chase booked. Flying to Denver and then renting a car to drive up into Wyoming where totality is as I like their 85-90% odds of clear skies. The fact that totality is just before noon local time helps as well. My hotel is a bit north of Denver as I waited until last week to book and pretty much in Wyoming is sold out and probably has been for a long time. Inventory is pretty low in such a rural state, so I was pretty much limited to metro Denver. One thing to consider if chasing the eclipse by car is traffic, both heading to it and then returning. I will likely be leaving my hotel in the middle of night to make the 200+ mile trek up to totality in Wyoming. Ordinarily it's about 3.5 hour drive from where my hotel is to Casper, but I will likely allow double time (maybe more) and make adjustments as necessary based on traffic conditions which can be monitored on Google maps. Plus, Casper will likely be crowded so I need to get there with plenty of time to find parking and a viewing location. If for some reason there looks to be clouds or wildfire smoke, I may head east toward Nebraska as an alternative. Denver gives me options in the off chance that the weather looks iffy. This website uses population statistics and GIS to try and predict where traffic might be bad. Hint: avoid Santee, SC. https://www.greatamericaneclipse.com/statistics/ Wyoming has a low population density so hopefully traffic won't be a big problem. I actually might be more concerned about return traffic as everyone is more likely to leave their eclipse location en masse as opposed to beforehand when people will likely be going there over the course of a couple of days. Have extra food, water, and patience on hand. Keeping the gas tanked topped off just in case might be a good idea too. I saw the 1994 eclipse from SW CT and it got slightly darker, even though it was just partial there. From that day forward, I've been looking forward to this eclipse. The Christmas Day 2000 partial eclipse didn't cause any darkness but I remember glancing up at the sun instantaneously a few times an noting that part of it was obscured. I have glasses for this chase. I'm both anxious and excited for this.
  22. Unless the 30" Pittsfield measurement was taken above 1500' in Pittsfield State Forest, it may have been taken in a drift or something. 30" seems a little high for a downslope spot. The 18" in Lanesboro (just north of Pittsfield at similar elevation) is more reasonable as does the 13" in Great Barrington as both COOPs seem to be pretty reliable. Too bad the one in Lenox Dale doesn't go back that far. As for the 36" in Adams, I don't know. Mt. Greylock is in Adams, so maybe it was taken at some elevation, but 36" seems high for town which is 800' and downslopes badly. 15-20", perhaps 18-24", is more likely from the Pittsfield to Adams corridor. QPF began to decrease a bit heading toward the VT line, which may, at least in part, help to explain the lower total at AQW. The snow was cement, so it obviously had some considerable staying power despite a mild pattern if I remember a fair amount of snow around these parts at Christmas that year.
  23. I don't know about their accuracy, but here are some totals I found of the December 1992 storm in this area (source: http://www.cbs6albany.com/weather/features/past-notable-storms/). It looks like there was considerable spillover into the Berkshire Valley if these totals are to be believed as Adams and Pittsfield are typically both notorious downslope spots in E flow. However, with such a strong LLJ it's likely Froude numbers were high enough to allow unblocked flow. In addition, there was probably just enough elevation around here that it was snow instead of rain. The Hudson River is pretty much sea level but the Berkshire Valley is generally 800-1200' ASL. Unfortunately, I was residing in far SW CT at the time and we had heavy rain and wind on day 1 followed by 6" of wet snow on the backside on day 2. However, I remember driving up through Becket around Xmas and they still had about a 30" glacier. Adams must've had ~15", but my memory is a bit foggy as it was long ago. Regardless if they still had that much snow around more than 2 weeks later, then those totals may in fact be legit.
  24. Thanks for your reply. It was much appreciated since I don't feel quite as alone in this regard. As someone with Asperger's, my biggest difficulty is in making small talk and understanding non verbal cues; two things that are critically important in interviews and in the workplace environment, especially one where teamwork is commonplace. The act of "ice breaking" and coming across as friendly and interested in the job are also tough for me. While I am friendly and interested, people may not perceive me that way due to my tendency to monotone and ramble. In an ultra competitive market like meteorology, every brownie point matters. As such, you're right, I probably do need interviewing practice. I need to try and find a place where I may be able to get it. In addition, many jobs in the field start off with phone interviews since a lot of candidates are applying to positions that are considerable distances away from their present locations. This tactic has also become common in recent years since it is a way for employers to screen through large numbers of candidates quickly. Unfortunately, as I don't hear well either, this is another obstacle. I interviewed for a met job near Boston earlier this year, and it was still on the phone despite that it is within driving distance. Some of these interviews consist of a group of people shooting challenging questions at you (I like to refer to it as the firing squad), and without the ability to attach a name to a face or anticipate what's coming, it's really easy to get nervous, slip up and say the wrong thing. The key is to know your own strengths and weaknesses. Even though I'm not the best with "people skills" or performing under pressure, I would consider myself a hard worker who is good with analytical problem solving and attention to detail. I'm not sure what, if anything in this field, will capitalize most on my strengths and minimize the effect of my shortcomings. Having no operational met experience, I can't really say whether most jobs in this field would be a good match for me. However, given what I've read on this forum and my inability to break into the field, it may not be.
  25. What types of met jobs do you think are best suited for the "quiet weather geek"? I'll be totally honest, verbal communication has never been my strong point, and this has probably hindered my ability to land a job in the field. It seems like what you said is not only true with energy met jobs, but with operational met jobs in general. Unfair as it is, it seems as if many employers value communication ability over talent.
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