dan11295
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Everything posted by dan11295
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possible the eye goes to the east of the location, but there aren't many good options closer to the center of track/coast without putting yourself at too much risk.
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Agreed, would think the floodwall system on the MS river side can handle this.
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Latest sonde was 933 mb. So has stopped intensifying. small consolation at this point
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Good chance Ida has peaked based on IR and radar. But its so close to landfall now its almost moot. Eye wall will be ashore in 3-4 hours.
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Any fluctuations in intensity before landfall are likely to be minor at this point.
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Storm strengthening on landfall with broad wind field of very strong winds (See SW Pass obs). There is going to be a lot of inland wind damage, in addition to the surge.
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Not to mention the IR still shows a steady state or strengthening storm.
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blowup of convection on the NE quad and eye is continuing to clear.
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I wouldn't trust that 922 mb reading with face value. Drops support ~929-930 mb atm.
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Many strong hurricanes wobble. That "land" is mostly marsh down there. Doubt there is much friction yet.
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What happened to gulf canes weakening on landfall?
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I also agree I think most of NOLA proper avoids the eyewall. Western suburbs (Kenner, Laplace,etc.) probably wont be so lucky.
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Louisiana is rather bad chase turf there is nowhere close to the projected landfall point which is safe enough. Way too vulnerable to surge.
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Question is the dry slot showing in a portion of the circulation on radar a sign of dry air trying to intrude? or it is more of a radar attenuation issue?
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We have less than 7 hours until landfall. Given the current radar and recon info i dont see how we get an EWRC started in that short of a time.
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Multiple mesovortices can be seen in the eyewall now on radar.
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Well at long as the floodwalls hold they wont be totally screwed, of course quite possibly getting NE eyewall of a Cat 4+ is bad enough.
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Pressure is now lower than Laura at peak/landfall.
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CDO is becoming more circular and eye is clearing, signs of continuing intensification.
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At least the pressure has stopped dropping. IR presentation did briefly degrade a bit, but still has that "fat tire" look. May be relatively steady state until landfall? obviously not enough time for ERC, not obvious signs of dry air and its moving too fast for upwelling to really be an issue (though it is now north of the highest heat content).
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I know the expansion of the wind field was expected, and I am assuming the surge forecasts factored that in?
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Also shifted a bit west. Better for New Orleans.
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12Z intensity guidance is actually coming down a bit, many now "only" peaking at a 100-105kt cat 3.
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Really don't want it to go any more west though, would really increase impacts to the New Iberia-Lafayette corridor. At least those locations are inland, so would still be much better from a surge perspective. Current track may the "best" spot from an overall population impact. Multiple hot towers on IR, Ida really getting going now.
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Only piece of good news is some of the intensity guidance has come down a bit. some models show a plateau in strength in the 6 hours prior to landfall. NHC hinted at potential dry air. Currently track keeps the worse west of New Orleans also.
