moneypitmike

Regardless of their methodology, I think they would serve themselves (and their crediblity) well by not naming it "Official NWS Forecast". It reminds me of one of my old work friends who would weight all his sales opportunities as 50% saying "either they will or they won't".

They're both (GYX/BOX) from their probablistics. They provide two identified as "Expected: Official NWS Forecast". One provides a number, the other a range. The range version should not be confused with their 10% and 90% probability amounts. Those are diffferent.

For those who care about such things: LOL

Can you throw up a PWM one?

I'm surprised some of this morning's dusting has stuck around. One wouldn't expect that during the daytime this early in the season. I just noticed they dropped my progged Thursday night low to 7. Man cold so early in the season.

Hanging your hat on the NAM 2 days out is a risky venture. Anyway--here's my p/c. Hoping the tuesday night numbers pad the day time totals a lot. Tuesday Snow, mainly after 9am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%

Yes--SE. I'll be calling for the shuffles in my new spot. They'll happen and I'll still wind up with 1/2 of slush and I'll call it a win.

What area?

Just noticed northern Litchfield County was watched. Add CT to the mix.

We can add ME/MA/NH to the pre-December 1 watch-warning question. Can CT/RI make it region-wide?

You hate to see it.

Unless there's a southern component to the winds, I'll be fine here. Further down the coast is a different story as due east is off the water there.

Love it. Per the winter poll, I'm pretty sure only VT will have made it through November with a watch/warning being hosted. Too much uncertainty for anything to be hoisted before tomorrow.

Pics? Living on the edge here.

Just where you want it 2.5 days out.

Much more grandiose than mine! Tuesday Cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow in the afternoon. Moderate snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 90 percent. Tuesday Night Snow in the evening, then partly cloudy with a chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of snow 80 percent.

Seeing as how "named storms" is an aspect of property insurance, there's inherent and unintended (?) implications for home owners. Meanwhile, I'll take the NAM and run.

Is there any hope on the EC for mid-level enhancements in coastal Maine? Looks pretty ugly up there. *asking for a friend.

that's what she said.

BOX had that in their AFD yesterday. Apparently, the sun angle is only low enough for day time accumulation between December 18 and December 24th.

I think this is the intended. Those amounts and the rainy coast look NAMish.

Looks like 495 is setting up as the boundary tonight. GFS has west of west of 495/north of the pike very solid.

So were these 00z runs the ones that were expected to have better sampled data?

They both get wound up pretty good.