snywx

Keep those observations coming. It’s good to know what those echoes are producing to my south

Snow starting to pick up again. Plowed roads have a fresh coating temp 32

Lgt snow temp 32 2.5” otg

That gradient through the county is gonna be wild

Mod snow here temp 31 1.5” otg

18z HRRR & NAM came in much snowier for these parts. It’s hard to find any piece of guidance that suggest anything under 10” now for western orange county

Heavy snow now solid coating on all surfaces

Lgt snow here temp 30

Overcast Temp : 26/23

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The storm really gets going tonight and Friday as the low move off the middle Atlantic coast and moves towards the region. Precipitation becomes widespread across the entire region, with some of the precipitation falling moderate to locally heavy at times late tonight into Friday morning. Winter headlines continue until 1am for Western Passaic and until 10am Friday for Orange County where temperatures will be cold enough for a longer period of snowfall. While it appeared that there could be a period of freezing rain over the last 24 hours, it does not appear that way with the latest 00z runs. With most of the guidance backing off on this, I have removed the mention of freezing rain thus taking out any ice accumulations. Snowfall amounts will be rather tricky across Orange county. Right now, while there is a winter weather advisory, I do think there could be a portion of Orange county that could or will meet warning criteria (6+ inches). The best chances will be across the far western sections of the county, mainly north and west of the I-84 corridor from Port Jervis to Montgomery. It looks like there could be a fairly tight gradient of the heaviest snowfall, the main question is where does that gradient set up. Also, there is a chance that some location, mainly far western Orange could see a brief period of heavy snowfall where amounts could reach rates of 1 inch per hour for an hour or two. Have decided to go with an advisory vs a warning for Orange county, because at this time, it does not appear that more than half of the county will reach warning level snowfall. Outside of Orange County NY and Western Passaic NJ, the rest of the Lower Hudson Valley, rest of NE NJ, and interior SW CT is expected to see a mostly a rain event with the possibility of a rain/snow mix to start. Little to no accumulations are expected in these locations. Along the coast, including the NYC Metro, coastal CT and Long Island, pretty much a plain rain event is expected. Should be interesting to watch unfold

What did the 6z Euro show snowfall wise. I’m hearing it ticked cooler

24/21 here. looks like upton is finally acknowledging the potential for a tight snow gradient here in Orange County

W of the Hudson looks locked in on most guidance. You can see some evidence of potential downsloping along & E of the river

0z GFS wow It continues to print out a huge event for these parts

Yeah they finally pulled the trigger. Meanwhile the 18z GFS continues to double down on a big time event for the 84 corridor

12z GFS continues to double down. I would cut those totals In half. I highly doubt anyone in the 84 corridor is seeing 12-20” lol

Rock hill, Yankee lake, MSV all sit above 1500’ what a weenie location lol

I like the Rock Hill area for this one. 12+ there

It’s tough to pull the trigger on a big event lol. We are soo close to the big snows but that R/S is awfully close. Most guidance has 6+ for us too

Sullivan county should cash in with this event. 75% of that county is over 1200’. @crossbowftw3should do well too

12z NAM came in a bit snowier for the I-84 corridor. My initial thinking is a general 4-8” primarily W of the Hudson. The potential exist for 8+ in western Orange County >1000’

A thing of Beauty!

Beautiful scene this morning 5” here just west of Middletown Ny

29 w/ lgt snow 4” at the stake

29 w/ lgt snow 4” otg