LP08
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Everything posted by LP08
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Wanted to show the 6z GEFS around the same time. Wow.
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Scanning the EPS, I think after the 10th through the end of the month is very conductive to snow. One of the better looking patterns we would have had this year with lower heights finally showing up in the 50/50 region and a -NAO. Specific threats will most likely come down to the strength of the block but there is a lot to like going forward.
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Snowing and sticking on the South side of the beltway. Growth looks better than I expected as well.
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Follow up storm looks better. 50/50 and -Nao
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Lots of west tracks, nice tracks, and suppression on the members. Pretty easy to see if we get a true block than we have a good chance in the 10-12 day time. Most members have at least some semblance of a storm in the south during that time.
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I just tried my hand at editing that map with the "good" and "not so good" and I'm terrible at it. If the -NAO and 50/50 held I could see something sliding south of us.
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You'd want those higher heights through AK to move into western Canada (-EPO) the PNA domain runs through the intermountain west. You want higher heights running through ID and that map shows a big trough there.
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Further south than 0z and awfully light but every little bit counts
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3° here.
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8° in N Arlington
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You have to like the plethora of chances on the GEFS. It seems that it will all come down to weather blocking materializes to get storms under us but there are a lot of nice solutions in the 10+ day.
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That’s kind of crazy. We are usually pretty close but I got to 11 this morning. What a half inch of snow can do. Lol
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I live over in Westover and I certainly don’t have an inch. Maybe .75 on the railings.
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I think we could roll with this the last half of the month. SE ridge seems to wane and flex throughout the run but up top the look looks great.
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Heh. This EPS run looks to be heading for a nice look after the 8th or so once the western trough rolls east. Stronger -NAO and a bridge to the EPO.
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EPS played follow the leader with the Friday wave and better than 0z. Mostly Dustings-1" but its there.
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There is a lot of red in Canada showing up by HR 168. Interesting times ahead.
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Slight shift east on the GFS for today but probably just noise. Seems it will be the snowiest model leading into the event for the corridor. God speed.
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I agree. I normally wouldn't be this invested in something that the Euro has never liked. I liked this window back with there was some transient blocking and todays storm quickly moving into eastern Canada on the Ensembles back when it was +120 hrs. It's just a shred factory north of us. I made a bet with my Wife's friends at her school that we would have 2 threats this week because of those looks. I'm going down with the ship lol.
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ICON just took a major step back at 12z. Hopefully just a blip. Comparing the vort panels, its actually less suppressive over the NE and heights are higher along the east coast, its just the NS vort is weak sauce compared to 06z.
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That would be amazing My optimism is mostly based off me telling my wife’s school that we would have two events 10 days ago. Today’s frontal thing and Friday. GEFS and EPS were not inspiring.
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ICON at 6z is improved. Im holding out hope for a .2- -.4 qpf event.
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Hah...always one step ahead. Definitely no shortage of big precip makers in there.
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No big changes on the 18z Euro comparing to 12z.
