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LP08

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Everything posted by LP08

  1. LP08
    Hope @MN Transplant doesn’t have your cell…
  2. LP08
    I’m going to pretend the FV3 is good. That is a much better thump.
  3. LP08
    Earlier runs brought the souther Baja low quicker, providing support for moisture transport (I’m not saying this right but whatevs) Every subsequent run has been holding it back, keeping the long wave trough more positive. System turns into two events.
  4. LP08
    They are so far removed from the upper level support they kind of peter out as it moves east.
  5. LP08
    Near the city I meant to add.
  6. LP08
    It’s only like 0.3-0.4 qpf pre flip. That won’t do it
  7. LP08
    I hate the GFS.
  8. LP08
    Kuchera is like 10-15 S to N from EZF up
  9. LP08
    Sleet line still in NC at 60
  10. LP08
    The longwave trough is slightly more positively tilted, may affect moisture transport down the line here.
  11. LP08
    I mean it makes sense if the H5 is right? More positviely tilted trough and flatter flow will not get the moisture transport we need. Ok done with Nam nitpicking hah
  12. LP08
    Maybe I'm way off but I don't think we want flatter out front? This thing undoubtly will be west of us. We should want amp and quicker phasing to send a much better swath of overrunning before we lose thermals. The two part, although slightly colder to start, robs moisture. Similar to what the Euro showed at 12z.
  13. LP08
    need the Baja low to come further east. When it drags its disconnected so the over running loses its punch and it turns into two parts.
  14. LP08
    Delaying the phase and flatter out front is causing some cut back on qpf for the thump.
  15. LP08
    A DT woof?
  16. LP08
    Keeps the primary way way south...like SC compared to WVA. Thats a lonely island.
  17. LP08
    I mean, 18z sunday and the mix line is still south of EZF...
  18. LP08
    I guess with a later sloppier phase we do lose some of the super intense thump, who knows what to root for anymore!
  19. LP08
    Seems that the first couple pieces of guidance at 12z (NAM, RGEM,ICON) delay the phase out west compared to their previous runs. And before anyone says anything i know these are not even the B squad lol
  20. LP08
    I'm worried too but my only hopium is that it is a true artic airmass (in place before the storm) will be a little more stubborn than usual WAA. I've been here too long. That warm air aloft ALWAYS comes in quicker than modeled. I've been telling friends 6-10 so hopefully at least 6" can be reached.
  21. LP08
    The phase was slower/later too, which helped keep heights lower as well
  22. LP08
    The problem too is its getting shared EVERYWHERE. My friend group, X, facebook. Ive seen some mets online trying to fight back against it.
  23. LP08
    We can't make fun of the NAM then post the 87 HR SREFs. Both our terrible and outside there "usefull range". Both the 12k and 3k have a small but noticeable cold push over the east through 36. Thats all I am looking for.
  24. LP08
    Through 24hr, better cold push over the east on the NAM.
  25. LP08
    Reading comments will be fun on that. Maybe my beer run won’t be as busy today !
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