weatherwiz

I’m feeling good about my spot!!! Sun is peaking out too in Walpole, ahead of the exploding supercells

Just made it to Walpole, storms really firing. Think I’ll just stay put here. Good viewing spots around here

LET'S GO!!! making the move to New Hampshire shortly.

I'm really watching those dewpoints because they will certainly factor into development today. Lots of stations into the lower 70's for dews. I still think there may be some dewpoint pooling later and we see dews in the 74-76 range. If those dews can get into S NH and any discrete cell can get going...yikes.

High-end severe is certainly difficult to obtain here, especially on a widespread scale. It's so difficult to advect an EML into our region and it's even more difficult to time it with an advancing shortwave/front.

I would go up 91

I still think we'll see 2 or 3 very nasty cells, its just a matter of where they occur and whether anyone going out can get lucky enough to catch em

yeah right. Now sure I want to go that far north though but we'll see how things are starting to look.

The hi-res models are all over the place though for today and I'll say...not a huge fan of how the HRRR has been trending.

I was a little shocked to see the enhanced expanded south some given the trends through the day yesterday and 0z guidance. But all the ingredients are there so I can see why it was expanded.

maybe some stuff later in the evening/overnight but nothing outside of showers and maybe some thunder

Thank you! If I end up that way I will head there.

maybe I'll get a great 360 view if I get sucked up in a tornado

Jeeze...it would take my longer to go from Walpole, NH to Laconia, NH (1h48m) then it would from Springfield, MA to Walpole, NH (1h23m).

That would be my luck

satellite looks very good off to the west there

Well I am probably going to go to Walpole, NH to at least start but I will most likely probably have to head northeast from there but can assess once stuff starts popping up. Probably end up near Laconia or maybe slightly east.

12z NAM sounding within southwest NH for 21z today. Can still see some capping. llvl shear certainly pretty strong though as is instability

Was just looking at the 12z balloon launches from Albany (and even Upton) and there is an evident cap in place. The better forcing and height falls during the day will be northern and central New England and that should be enough to break any capping up there. South into Mass and CT I don't think the cap breaks. Seems too strong to me and by the time it may break with that approaching shortwave the best dynamics may be lifting out. I'm not even sure if there will be much activity across Mass. But anyone in Mass and CT should definitely not let their guard down. All it takes is for one cell to get going and develop a mature enough updraft and it will have plenty to CAPE/shear to utilize. WE'll have to watch the progression of the warm front too. It seems the trend has been to lift the warm front north and east a bit more quickly.

I don't think there is going to be much activity but there may be a window between like 5-8 PM for activity to develop across western CT as there is some shortwave energy approaching. Showers may start popping during the afternoon but they will struggle to intensify given the capping and weak forcing.

Yeah chasing here sucks. You can’t even really chase. I know I call it chasing but I don’t really chase. What I just try to do is pick an area which looks to be a decent spot before hand and then look on google maps for any like open fields, golf courses, etc. in the vicinity. Then get there a few hours before hand. I always prefer northern CT being in the game because BDL is great for views. I tend though not to go after stuff as it’s ongoing. Too much traffic, if you are in areas with lots of trees blocked roads become a concern, and getting caught in the torrential downpours driving can be dicey. Difficult to see and the way people drive…always afraid of getting rear ended

May have to end up going a bit farther north into New Hampshire. Have to look deeper into stuff but looks like storm mode is going to be super messy. Also looking like a bit later for timing (not a bad thing).

Could start seeing stuff fire as early as 1-2 PM. Mostly in the 3-8 window though. Another round of isolated storms late evening and early overnight but little svr risk

The NAM/HRRR are spitting out some of the highest supercell/STP values I can remember here. Of course though that doesn’t mean everything, you still need mature enough storms to utilize the environment and that’s the question right now, how many can?

I'm noticing some of the point-and-click soundings are showing 700-500mb lapse rates around 6.5C/KM but looking at the soundings, those raw numbers don't look right. Not sure that really means anything, I would assume the raw numbers you see in the bottom left box aren't used anywhere (like in the computation of the CAPE).