weatherwiz

This is true...this certainly has potential to set things up behind it. In that pattern behind it we would have two potential ways to get storms 1) Clippers diving southeast 2) Miller B's

I hate these stupid setups which are nothing more than just cold fronts moving through with one or multiple waves developing along them. Unless you have latitude or elevation, so much has to go right with these. There is still potential the front/wave are suppressed far enough south to give hope, but the baroclinic zone would almost certainly be just off the coast which is going to about cook anyone outside of far interior/elevation.

Going to need things to go just about perfect for Thanksgiving for anyone outside of the interior/higher elevations to get accumulating snow.

All those game are good with me but I’m also fine with waiting until after the holidays if that will yield a larger turnout

Ahh I misread...but even with tomorrow night...it actually looks even more marginal than late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

I think many have a good shot at flakes but I don't know about the hills getting even 1-3...maybe portions of the Berks get 2'' into like that far northwest CT (Norfolk).

Not even sure how great rates are going to be except in some localized banding but I think that ends up west of our region. Even like say western Connecticut...was just quick looking at soundings and maybe flakes mix in the hills but that is probably about it.

Temperatures are extremely marginal on the HRRR. Have to see what soundings/thermals look like.

Well keep in mind with respect to SST's, region 1.2 is most volatile and susceptible to rapid delta's.

If we end up in the no data category does that mean rivers/streams are all dried out and we've brunt to a crisp?

Great stuff. And for the bolded, also another concern in these setups. At least right now though, the jet doesn't look overly powerful (like we've seen with some of these setups in the past). In fact, if you look at the structure of the jet stream and jet streak...there would be a window for some brief cyclogenesis within the Northeast (or upper-Mid Atlantic) which could be enhanced by strong thermal gradient along coast.

The end of next week looks like just one of those FROPA's with a developing wave of low pressure. Two things about these setups: 1. The snow maps go absolutely bonkers with these and always spit out some "historic totals". 2. These setups almost never work for us (except farther north). With that said, like was mentioned yesterday by Will and a few others, gotta watch that PV lobe...if we can get some PV/confluence to suppress the boundary then it may work out. An overlooked aspect of these setups too can be the influences of convection across the South which can rob moisture but at least right now, this may not be something to worry about...don't see much of a signal for strong convection.

Hell, even BWI may be able to pull some minor accumulation

Newark could end up getting their first T of snow (maybe even like 1/2'') before places like BDL, ORH, BOS...did BTV get anything with that cold shot a few weeks back?

It certainly is great seeing -WPO signals...haven't had that early in winter in a bit.

I mean I try not to get my head into that "what if" game...I mean you could apply the what if to anything in life. But this system...this evolution, its quite anomalous for this time of year. It certainly is early so it would be foolish to expect a significant winter storm (though its happened before) but sometimes you look back at these at the end of the season and be like, "damn if only that produced". Like sports...at the end of the season, you go back and look at that loss you had early on where you had the game and let it get away...well that ended up being the difference in making the playoffs versus missing. We need to get out of this rut...we need something to finally just go our way.

Crazy

It's more about just the evolution of the system and processes involved. If you just look at that and don't factor in the time of year it's an opportunity missed. I think being able to cash in on opportunities is extremely underrated when you go back to assess the season as a whole.

Agreed on this. We need to be able to cash in on opportunities and this was one opportunity missed.

Maybe CT will break off and float away into the Atlantic

There was another earthquake in CT

Hopefully next week pans out into something, whether it’s rain, snow, or a mix. It would even be better if this storm, plus next week are indicators of more active times but after next week we very well could go back into a quieter regime.

With how intense the systems they can get in the Fall they can get some decent instability along the coast. IIRC the west coast states (CA, WA, OR) their peak is usually fall.

I don’t think it’s too totally uncommon

Agreed on all that.