weatherwiz

They're all radar indicated. Though not looking close enough to see if there are any CC drops.

So far one confirmed/reported tornado which was 1) well southwest of where the greatest risk area was outlined 2) also much closer to the better forcing from the approaching shortwave. We'll see what happens with the line of supercells between Rochester and just west of ELM but the stuff in central New York has struggled mostly thus far. And stuff along the warm front may be transitioning to torrential rain with embedded tornado potential.

The other thing to consider too is how storms develop and what can remain discrete. If cells are going to develop and "stack" like this, given the inflow direction, the more northern of the stacked cells are going to have their inflow cutoff. southern cells would have the better chance given uninterrupted inflow

I'm certainly not saying there won't be a few tornadoes today, just refuting that I don't think we'll see an "outbreak" (several tornadoes). The combination of wind shear and instability is certainly impressive and that is evident by the signatures on the ongoing storms. But we've often times seen similar where the reflectivity's have that "look" but struggle to produce. I've seen some on fb and twitter indicating today as a tornado outbreak with strong tornado potential...that is what I'm disagreeing on.

Storms are really starting to go up on radar and there is the confirmed tornado southwest of BUF. But even with these TC related threats, isn't H7 temps >10C still super warm? But I do suppose given the degree of llvl shear and instability it wouldn't take much for things to spin. I wasn't discounting there would be a few tornadoes today but seeing some say stuff like several-plus tornadoes or even strong tornadoes. How does this compare with 8/29/05 (remnants of Katrina coming through). I don't think I've ever gone back and looked at that and that was before I knew about models. I just remember being super excited because on TWC local on the 8's it said, "storms could contain tornadoes" but nothing ever ended up really developing that day (but there is much more going on now than there was that day...I think).

All those years too had some big severe weather events either around those dates or during the summer. Some had multiple big events. 2003 was a huge damaging wind event summer, especially NY/PA

I hope one of these days we get an Iowa corn-field like environment where we are pooling dews of 79-82 under an EML with a potent approaching shortwave. Everyone start growing corn in you backyards!!!

certainly could be a focus. Have to see how everything develops and evolves. Could quickly/easily just become torrential rain and fighting updrafts

Idk…I know it’s the product of a tropical airmass but those mid-level temps are extremely warm and warm through the day. I think convection really struggles but we shall see.

Maybe one or two tors

Pretty soon our "dew downs" are going to be 68-72 versus 74-78.

No, yearly blood work and working. There may be one or two good storms but I'm not overly impressed. 700mb temps warm >10C as the day goes on. IMO, this would be too difficult to chase given coverage of any solid storms should be extremely isolated. You would almost have to setup in the perfect spot and get lucky.

Now this is summer right here. Cloud-to-cloud lightning across the sky with hot, soupy air. This is what we want

Decent light show going on

It’s not a bad look. I just saw some folks on fb (who are usually always going aggressive) going wild haha. Certainly anything that can get a good updraft going will have loads of potential. A bit nervous about that capping but maybe closer to that shortwave farther west helps

nahh I just love it and embrace it. I don't mind the stickiness and everything that comes with it. It makes me feel alive. nothing better than hopping into a nice warm shower and then feeling all clean and refreshed after.

Just went on a walk to Dunkin. Dews in the 70's don't even feel that humid anymore. Did I get a bit sweaty on the walk back, sure. That is just natural. 70's dews are just another walk in the park. Embrace it, accept it, enjoy it.

see some people going wild for NY/PA with severe potential tomorrow. Seems awfully difficult to me to develop strong/severe convection when 700mb temps are warming above +10C through the day. Torrential downpours with thunder...yes. Severe convection ehhhhhh

I am a little perplexed with the SPC saying lack of CINH tomorrow within the slight risk zone. Was looking at sound soundings and there is a pretty stout cap around 800mb. There will certainly be an abundance of llvl instability and the shear profile is noteworthy but I wonder how many mature discrete cells will develop in NY/PA. There may be a very narrow corridor that way though with some enhanced tornado potential.

I think the rainfall totals may be underdone as well. The rainfall rates are going to be through the roof. There will certainly be terrain enhancement going on.

Yup going to be difficult to get much convection tomorrow or Thursday (even though we have the marginal tomorrow). It is super warm aloft. Its like +10C to +12C at 700...going to need some major forcing to break that.

was it weather lord?

That's the best...when its just as hot in the shade as it is under the Sun.

The NAM looks like a winter storm evolution across the OV tomorrow

man Houston got crushed pretty good.