weatherwiz

Kind of sucks the next few days in the convective department because the best forcing/dynamics are displaced from the best llvl moisture and instability. Looks like the better dynamics and forcing remain behind the cold front. Despite this, Wednesday may be the most widespread day for showers and thunderstorms and we'll see some localized stronger storms. Will see some flash flooding potential Wednesday as there may be multiple rounds.

Going to be tough timing everything out. Wednesday may be a bit of a disconnect between the greatest dynamics/forcing and instability. Monday - Wednesday though should be active in the shower/thunderstorm department. Subtle shortwaves traversing through and pre-frontal troughs should be mechanisms to get things going. The greatest overall severe potential may be across NY/PA but we'll have to see. If we had more of an EML Wednesday, we would be talking about overnight severe threat here.

Bring the monitor outside!

I think some need to spend more time in the heat/humidity

Sucks we lose the steeper lapse rates for Wednesday but Monday and Wednesday could be fun (though Monday may be a later show).

SOS tomorrow night?

That's what I am leaning towards as well but that is some big time anomalous ridging poking into the Arctic circle. Haven't been looking much into the larger picture but looks like some big changes occur across Eastern Asia these next few days which plays a significant role across the PAC and western NA

We'll have to watch as we get closer but that is a pretty decent trough/front next week advertised by the GFS. That could certainly shake things up for a bit and we'll have to see how long it takes to recover. We'll get humidity back more quickly (maybe not the oppressive stuff though) but the hotter temps may get to the OV and deflect southeast.

Gotta feel for the West...doesn't look like any relief there anytime soon. But maybe we can continue to pinch off some EML plumes during the second half of July.

Maybe its an opening to the 4th dimension or a time travel portal.

And yes, I totally was off on today! Kudos to everyone.

He’s having an MRI in the morning. They said it’s definitely spinal related and it may be a slipped disk which they can remove if that’s the case. Based on the situation, I’m thinking/hoping that is the best case scenario. I’d imagine recovery from that shouldn’t be too long. Recovery from his ACL surgery a few years back was like 6-8 months (he healed on the faster side).

Not sure, guessing it is related to the back issue which happened last December. We went outside to play and outside for 2 seconds…he did his happy jump and twisted and went down screaming. He has zero movement or control of his back legs. He dragged himself across the yard and kept trying to stand up but flopping over. I was home by myself so a friend came over to help carry him in the car.

This sucks…went outside to play with the dog and he got hurt. At the emergency vet

Monday could be fun, just have to iron out the timing.

might have to rename it tornado mountain

that is a very nasty cell

Not poopooing it, just stating that alot of what was being said out there (not referring to the forum) was totally overblown. Some people on fb and Twitter calling for monster tornado outbreak, strong tornadoes, PDS tornadoes. Of all the storms that developed it was only some select cells that were really able to take off. When dealing with NY/PA 3 or 4 tornadoes for an event isn't earth shattering for them.

Definitely, my overall concern was how the storms would behave in the environment. I try really hard not to get too caught into the supercell/sig tor parameters, updraft helicity swaths, and the hazard type on those sharppy soundings. My thinking was that largely, storms would really struggle to become mature enough to fully utilize the dynamics present. Outside of the vicinity of the warm front, the forcing was pretty weak, height falls were modest, and you had warming mlvl temperatures. The better forcing and height falls were towards the BUF area and I think that helped with that long-tracked supercell. The weak forcing, lapse rates, and warm mid-levels just told me that as parcels got to a certain level, they would struggle to really rise and produce sufficiently strong updrafts and while the shear was stupendous, there was something lacking (enhanced stretching potential) to develop sufficient rotation throughout the storms.

Also most of the action seems to be outside of the highlighted highest risk area. Near BUF and then up along the WF which Scott and Ryan pointed out for good stuff.

We'll see what happens once more damage reports come in and surveys but if we come out of this with 3 or 4 tornadoes with like 20+ warnings issued that's a pretty brutal verification rate. Not sure how many warnings there have been so far but it seems like its a big number

5/31/98 says hold my beer

ehhh. So far 3 confirmed tornadoes. The most impressive cell overall was the one near BUF earlier. Of all the cells and warnings going on, mostly everything has been underwhelming. Just giving good enough looks to warn. Same thing with yesterday, there was the 10% TOR and enhanced risk in southern IL/IN and northern KY...sure there were a few tornadoes but there were more severe weather reports in Maine/New Hampshire than in the enhanced.

Today's event reminds me of the Dallas Cowboys offense. Looks good on paper and looks good during the game, however, failing to produce touchdowns.

There is one warning that has a 1'' hail tag. Is that just generic wording? You would probably need like 60 dbz to 35000 feet to get 1'' hail today.