weatherwiz

Is this the second time within a year MDW reported a tornado?

Should be convectively active too.

I was 6 at the time. I remember that morning, though it was some years before I could correlate it with the label of the event. I woke up around 6 or 6:30 that morning and wasn't feeling well so I went out to the living room to turn on The Weather Channel. I had the station on for I have no clue how long and there was no weather. My mom then woke up and I asked her...I guess it turned out they had changed the TV station line up that morning or maybe the night before. Anyways, as soon as she finds TWC, first thing I see is them showing the radar and this massive line moving across western Mass. I am also presenting on this at the TriState Weather Conference at WestConn in September!

That’s why I didn’t go outside to take pics of the storm to my northwest. RadarScope was throwing out CGs outside of the storm.

Not sure if there is some sort of convective feedback going on wrt the shortwave but the 18z NAM would be quite interesting tomorrow evening

Areas with more rainfall may certainly see a local boost in the dewpoints. This may become more noticeable during the peak heating cycle when mixing is strongest and dewpoints may mix. But if you have that extra available moisture source, that can help keeps dews up...though I would suspect probably not a heck of a lot more. Lots of other influences as well to consider, terrain, wind direction, theta-e ridging/pooling, if present, etc.

that area is always getting smoked. what a spot.

Belchertown looks like its getting hit good. At least the eastern part

oh wait...I totally misread your post you're talking about the SE NY storms

Was going to go outside and take a picture of the sky but with all these bolts from the blue I’m afraid a strike will get me in the Fanny

Not so sure these things will have much deviant motion. They're probably going to train along the boundary and may shift some with the boundary but these should be more pulse like.

This thing must be ripping CGs

Thought I heard thunder. Checked the radar and storms just to my north and west. Go outside and look northwest and sky is totally dark. Every other direction barely a cloud in the sky

This site has a slew of different products you can create graphs for. I wish it was a little more user friendly but its top notch https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=76

Yup...this is where I really wish we had steeper lapse rates present. Ultimately, the better ingredients happen during the evening and overnight. Obviously we lose peak instability during this period, but if we had steep lapse rates we would maintain alot of the CAPE. But that is a pretty decent shortwave. Wish it was coming through during peak heating.

Kind of sucks the next few days in the convective department because the best forcing/dynamics are displaced from the best llvl moisture and instability. Looks like the better dynamics and forcing remain behind the cold front. Despite this, Wednesday may be the most widespread day for showers and thunderstorms and we'll see some localized stronger storms. Will see some flash flooding potential Wednesday as there may be multiple rounds.

Going to be tough timing everything out. Wednesday may be a bit of a disconnect between the greatest dynamics/forcing and instability. Monday - Wednesday though should be active in the shower/thunderstorm department. Subtle shortwaves traversing through and pre-frontal troughs should be mechanisms to get things going. The greatest overall severe potential may be across NY/PA but we'll have to see. If we had more of an EML Wednesday, we would be talking about overnight severe threat here.

Bring the monitor outside!

I think some need to spend more time in the heat/humidity

Sucks we lose the steeper lapse rates for Wednesday but Monday and Wednesday could be fun (though Monday may be a later show).

SOS tomorrow night?

That's what I am leaning towards as well but that is some big time anomalous ridging poking into the Arctic circle. Haven't been looking much into the larger picture but looks like some big changes occur across Eastern Asia these next few days which plays a significant role across the PAC and western NA

We'll have to watch as we get closer but that is a pretty decent trough/front next week advertised by the GFS. That could certainly shake things up for a bit and we'll have to see how long it takes to recover. We'll get humidity back more quickly (maybe not the oppressive stuff though) but the hotter temps may get to the OV and deflect southeast.

Gotta feel for the West...doesn't look like any relief there anytime soon. But maybe we can continue to pinch off some EML plumes during the second half of July.

Maybe its an opening to the 4th dimension or a time travel portal.