weatherwiz

can'tr rule out thunder either. soundings are pretty impressive with some weak instability

true

that may have been the same exact winter I am thinking of. Actually i think you're right

Question...this isn't storm related but I can't remember this for the life of me. I remember several...several winters back...this may even go back to Eastern US Wx days but there was one winter where there was alot of talk about confluence to the north...I think that was the term...but if I am thinking of this correctly having confluence just to our north is NOT good for us...it keeps storm track suppressed to our south?

Jesus...seeing when this was made and then realizing how long we've been at American Wx is insane...7 years now Can't believe how old I'm getting

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I wouldn't really be surprised to see some dry slotting in that area. The 700mb low has been taking shape and actually seems to be pushing a bit further north than east and might be closing off a little more west than it is now...can see dry air beginning to wrap in around it

how far east?

It's going to be impossible for models, especially the models with not as coarse of a resolution to accurately or consistently depict the exact SLP track or even placement. This is a very compact system with very deep pressure and so many tight pressure contours packed together. Seeing how the wobbles, whether they are slight ticks west or slight ticks east probably don't mean much at all. We're really just going to have to follow mesoanalysis and even the RAP might not 100% accurately depict exact placement. The point is, the slight variations we are seeing really don't mean much for many in this forum, but probably more for extreme western CT back towards NYC. However, the precipitation should is rather expansive and will continue to be expansive into the overnight hours. Don't forget, this system is still in the beginning stages of maturation and all the processes are coming together for further strengthening and expansion of the precip shield. frontogenesis at all levels indicate we will continue seeing numerous heavy bands develop, perhaps even convective bands, over the next several hours and even as far west as NYC, which we are currently seeing happen. One thing I am a little concerned with, however, is having too many heavier bands isn't always great thing b/c there will be subsidence zones and that is something the GFS sort of hints at becoming the case later on as seen by negative VV values...so this is something to certainly watch. While one area is getting pounded, another is getting shafted.

That's exactly why the GFS is too far east IMO (the current 0z run)...with what is bolded that all should allow for a further west track than what the GFS has now.

I could see two different areas of max jackpots in this. I think Ray mentioned a page or two back about he could see a NE MA jackpot...and the other jackpot right around the same area that is suggested in the map from Channel 12 bbou-something posted above

While the NAM doesn't appear to have any dry slots it still looks like there are less than ideal RH values we would be dealing with. Take a look at both H7 and H85 and the RH fields. Not like seeing less than 90% RH values at H7 and especially below H85. Seems like some drier air gets en-trained over the area from the NE on the NAM...so while the NAM might be spitting out some insane totals or whatever.

given credence or not, anytime you're within this range are able to eliminate any flags that's always a good thing. If you're at this point now and raising more questions than you're answering that's never a good thing

yeah I agree...probably not much of a concern down this way. for much of CT I went 18-24'' to start (but mentioned 24-36'' is possible) but before going ahead and going with those much higher totals 1) want to try and get an idea of where the heaviest banding traverses and 2) how does the banding act over time? Also before going much higher want to really get a handle on the exact track and positioning of the 700/850 lows and how they mature over time.

Couple questions I have. Obviously this system should have quite the deformation band associated with it, however, (and this isn't a main concern but more curious I guess) is it possible the deformation band has trouble staying in tact and exceptionally strong for a long period of time? The system which will stall for a time (or move very slowly) is going to become occluded and that will eventually cut off the warm/moist flow into the system and the 700mb low seems to become a bit more disorganized after a few hours in which models show a very tight closed off circulation...is it possible we see a very healthy looking deformation band just off to our west but sort of "fizzling" as it would move east?

classic

Certainly agree with many points here...obviously not from personal experience but just from the experience of listening to other people. 1. You definitely have to be willing to move...anywhere, not just in meteorology but in any major. Sure for many it would probably be great to get a job close to home where you spent the majority of your life but not everyone is lucky like that. You have to be willing to go anywhere at anytime. 2. You certainly can't think big money right away...some people get lucky like this but for the most part you have to work your way up...especially in meteorology. I have a few friends who are quite lucky...although I shouldn't say lucky, they busted their butts off and have excellent degrees. One of my best friends from middle school who went to Johnson & Whales in RI is a chief...he went to cooking school. He just got a job outside of Boston with a starting salary of 50K! Another friend who I work with at the skating rink is getting a degree in Business/Accounting, she is graduating next month and will be starting this job next month with a 50K annual salary...not including bonuses. Something else I would like to add is you have to keep ALL of your options open. You have to be willing to do almost anything you can within your degree, especially when looking for your first job. The more options you have available to you the better odds you will have. For example, when I finally get back to college and graduate my life goal is not to be a TV met...nothing against TV mets at all it's just I would rather do research or NWS or SPC, however, does this mean I will not go after any TV jobs...absolutely not. My options will also include teaching, middle school...high school...anything. Whatever options are available I'll keep them all open. I've always thought this, however, after an experience I had at work today this really popped in my mind and really stuck more. There was this new kid that came in today and was being trained, he is 21 or 22 I believe and he just graduated from the University of Hartford last December with a degree in English. He just got a job at the skating rink, he'll be a cashier making probably $8.35/HR working no more than probably 10-15 hours a week. It's sad. Someone asked him today what he planned on doing with the degree and he said he wasn't sure, that person asked him if he thought about going into teaching and he said no...that really struck me. That right there heavily decreases his options available to him. In this day and age you just can't do that.

I understand the job market in the meteorology field isn't that great but is this really a reason for people to completely give up and not even make attempts or an effort to at least try to get a job in the field? Sure it may take a while but I know I would never, ever give up. I will definitely have a backup plan and stick with that but I will never just completely give up and throw in the towel just b/c the job market isn't that great. There are always job openings in this field somewhere, granted there may not be a ton of them but you just have to fight for it and do your best. If you're still in school, make sure you're getting excellent grades and find ways to get your name out there.

Wow...this is the deadliest single tornado since the Worcester tornado of '53 which had a deal toll of 90. Just sad.