weatherwiz

Was it? I thought that was Seguin...he sent some tweet out thanking people for reaching out to him. Maybe both their homes were destroyed.

Tyler Seguin's house he had just sold or was in the process of selling was destroyed during the tornado Sunday

I totally see the point about the cooler air quickly undercutting activity tomorrow, but there is a window...albeit brief where there is an impressive overlap of parameters. Even looks like some 350K theta-e air poking into the area. Lapse rates may not be much but that could yield some pretty decent MLCAPE values

I think tornado potential is being downplayed a bit in south-central TX tomorrow...especially just N and W of Austin.

Typically hot tubs don't lead to sinking motion

Let's expand that and look at that subsidence this afternoon. Sinking motion to rising motion like BOOM

Fun at Colorado springs tonight!!!

WOWZERS

^^^^^ Pretty much this. The past few years have been annoying with brutal cold into May. I'd rather just deal with it now and get it over with.

If things can work in our favor I could see a shot at accumulating snow in early November. I actually wouldn't mind a front loaded winter and get all our snow through January and then warm up in February and get an early spring

Great point...did not consider that. Woah...the NAM is hinting at several inches of snow for parts of the TX Panhandle tomorrow night.

SWEET!!!

Was there any lightning last night or this AM?

Here's a question...this is EPS 6-10 day mean. See how that ridge is oriented in the GoA...how it extends into AK from like a SSW to a NNE orientation? (Excuse my drawing, but if that ridge was configured more south to north and positioned slightly differently, would the result of the central US trough be farther east with the east ridging now into the Atlantic...but how would that pool of below-average heights (assuming that's the Azores high_ behave? Also, does this Azores high play any significance to how the pattern is configured across the east? When the NAO is positive this feature is always going to be weaker than average (showing up as below-average heights)...I feel like anytime you have a trough centered in the central U.S. and you have these below-average heights with the Azores high, the response in the middle has to be a ridge.

Didn't realize it's available...though guessing experimental https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_text

The HRRR seems to have tremendous potential. the extended runs of the HRRR have seemed to do a pretty decent job...though that's just observation...could be completely wrong and quickly shot down via the scores.

Hello!

ughhhh it tries

Something needs to be done with either the NAM, GFS, or both...particularly with the MOS outputs b/c this is absolutely ridiculous...every stupid freaking fall and spring there are always these large...very large major differences between the two with regards to high and low temperatures...I mean huge...in some cases like 10-15F differences...RIDICULOUS. Now I know there are other methods and means for forecasting highs and lows...that's not the point here...can't do that when you forecast for a large number of cities. SOMEONE NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Now I can understand when there is a frontal boundary and there are timing differences between the models, but in many cases THERE ARE NO FRONTS. What i derive is the NAM under-mixes and GFS over-mixes...FIX IT

should be considered

So close

I was doing some reading on sting jets and I must embarrassingly admit, I had sting jet completely confused with something else. Skip forward...I poo pooed it

dandruff?

That is certainly lacking. It was more just in jest how this season there have been a few others named which were complete garbage looking. Remember the one that was named and like 3 hours later dissipated LOL