weatherwiz

Looks like ~80 knots or so being sampled about 5,500K from OKX.

That's insane

Tons of 3KM CAPE ahead of this stuff. Just gotta utilize it somehow...gotta get some convection...deepish convection going. Maybe watch that stuff south of LI? the VTP though is insane for here

15z HRRR actually looks like it ticked up slightly with gusts across CT

yeah you would think so anyway. Environment is prime here but we'll see I guess.

Tough to tell but looks like a divergent signature near Patterson, NJ?

Agreed...If there are not impressive obs/reports coming out of LI then that does not bode well for us. But the reports out of NJ are a bit encouraging

Looks like TEWR is sampling like 60-70 mph ~1,000 feet off the ground...not bad at all

Well just ahead of LLJ max we have the steepest 2-6km lapse rates. Certainly better mixing potential up this way. Also not much in the way of crap out of head of it to sort of stabilize things a bit. This is really going to be interesting over the next several hours

That's awesome!! I'm getting excited. I'm in Branford and have my camcorder ready...bring it on!!!

12z NAM for BDL at 1:00 PM...yikes

New Watch coming

How was that? Woke up around 11:30 I think it was and saw the line in southern CT...was impressive. Woke up again a little later and it had died faster than lawn's this summer.

Just realized but all the tornado reports on SPC page are actually eyewitness accounts

have to watch those...and anything else that develops ahead of main activity. Probably won't produce in CT but have to watch in MA...especially moving through Valley

Holy ****

Well it's coming...should see rapid decline in weather across CT over the next 30-60 minutes. We have a pretty ripe environment across the state...especially southern CT. Let's see how this pans out

hmm weird. Nothing loading up for me. I shut down and restarted and it's all good now.

Is OKX radar down? Not loading anything on Radarscope

It's still interesting to see that the HRRR continues to advertise gusts upwards of 70 knots across coastal CT. That seems a bit excessive but I suppose 60 knots is possible...especially with any deeper convection.

I think people are expecting this to be like an all day event of craziness and damage...it's really only a several hour window of hell...calm before, then hell, then a gradual decline, then quickly back to calm

wow! ahh yes i do recall seeing that post. Was going to respond but got side tracked. Interesting observation and makes alot of sense I think.

I don't think comparisons to previous events is really justifiable. Each setup is rather unique. If you're looking to compare you would have to find a previous event in which the synoptics match quite well (this is extremely important in this situation given the role the ULJ is playing here) and find some similarities within the mesoscale...such as the profile of the lower atmosphere. How many events like this do we see in which an inversion is very weak or even non-existent (though I don't think you can use non-existent b/c there has to be some sort of inversion involved) and how many tropical systems give us the tornado threat we have...at the end of the day the TOR threat is probably the biggest out of any threat. The damaging wind threat can't be overlooked either...yes 50-60 knots may not sound "exciting" but winds of that magnitude over a widespread area with fully leaved trees is going to cause issues...don't be fooled about the "fast" nature or "brief" period of these winds...in fact, winds can be maximized when the forward speed of a system is very fast (one of the culprits which made the 38 hurricane damage even worse).

Seeing how there are no tornado warnings currently to the southwest I suppose is a good thing. Anyways, velocites are ripping looking at DIX

yeah I think the majority of the state sees gusts above 50 mph for a few hours later. Plus the risk for tornadoes.