weatherwiz

Actually looks like we'll see two different lines (similar to Wednesday as well) but only one line will be the main producer. The main producing line will drop into upstate NY and northern VT/NH. The second line may fire (still in upstate NY) just a bit further south (towards the capital region again?)...this may not traverse as far of a distance but may produce a small, but very concentrated area of wind damage.

Yeah would be nice to see something. One thing I don't particularly like though is it seems that timing of the s/w trough has slowed a bit. The other day there was perfect timing on just about all pieces/ingredients. There may be some displacement here...but still may look good for upstate NY and extreme northern New England.

ahhh great point...I didn't even consider about low-dewpoint derecho. But I also do believe the distance criteria is probably standard throughout...although given how this went to the coast I would say this met criteria.

looks like there was a confirmed tornado in NY yesterday

Forecast models are in agreement in very steep mid-level lapse rates associated with a plume of EML air will traverse the region on Saturday. During the afternoon yet another vigorous shortwave trough is set to eject into northern New England. This will be associated with yet another potent mid-level and low-level jet with a max passing right through northern/central New England. At the surface, temperatures should push well into the 60's to lower 70's across northern New England with mid-to-upper 70's across southern New England. There are some uncertainties regarding moisture return, however, dewpoints may push into the 50's or even lower 60's. This, combined with the very steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to more than enough CAPE to fuel convective development. Strong heating should also promote very steep low-level lapse rates. Given the above, the potential exists on Saturday for one or multiple squall lines to propagate through NY and northern/central New England. Given the signals for widespread damaging winds, a serial derecho is possible. There is also the potential for brief tornadoes with any initial discrete cells or embedded within the squall line.

I am a bit boggled though. I mean looking at mesoanalysis in the morning it was advertising as much as 150+ 3km CAPE advancing ahead of the front with 2-6km lapse rates nearing 8 C/KM and DCAPE values were 400-500 J...who knows...maybe they just focus on their HREF products and whatever probs they spit out lol

The last product I recall looking at from them was an MCD out in NY that said "a few severe gusts possible"

they did go to slight? Jeez a little late to the game. When I hopped on the computer at 6 AM and started looking I thought it was pretty obvious it was going to be a decent day...now I didn't expect it to be THAT crazy but I was shocked there wasn't an upgrade to slight.

It would be interesting to know if; 1) the SPC wanted watches but local offices said no 2) Local offices wanted a watch but SPC said no 3) Both sides said no

should add though the threat this time may be slightly north

going to fire up a thread in a little bit but Saturday looks pretty potent if enough CAPE can be generated. In fact, could be more intense than yesterday

low dews were a huge help too in this

I always forget but I am not sure if the distance requirement is the same for the classification of each type (serial, progressive, and hybrid). I think the criteria may be a bit more loose for serial derechos.

May be able to argue serial derecho here

Pretty impressive overlap of 3km CAPE/3km lapse rates. Couple that with a LLJ max moving overhead with a vigorous s/w moving through...viola!

Kinda surprised BDL reported 64 mph. Didn’t really seem like it. I guess though there might have been a very brief burst. Have to watch video and see if I can spot it

Would estimate 45-50 for gusts at BDL.

Just saw a CG!!!

Lightning!!!!

As mine gets further removed from radar it will “look like” it’s weakening

WOW

Gust front/shelf becoming visible!!!!

Damn...70-80 mph only a few thousand feet off the ground. About to get rocked at BDL!!